WASHINGTON – No roaring crowd will welcome former Vice President Joe Biden’s nomination at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday, and he may have to keep proper social distance from his vice presidential running mate, Kamala Harris.
President Donald Trump, likewise, will not get the arena full of supporters he wanted at the Republican Party convention the following week — complete with colorful balloons cascading from the rafters. He may deliver his acceptance speech from the White House.
Packing thousands of cheering, shouting party faithful indoors during a global respiratory pandemic would not be a good idea, both parties concluded. The speeches, parties and fundraisers are going virtual.
Beginning Monday, the Democrats will hold four nights of televised speeches and party events from remote spots after abandoning Milwaukee, Wisconsin, as its convention city. The following Monday, August 24, several hundred Republican officials and delegates will gather briefly in Charlotte, North Carolina, to formally nominate Trump for a second term before departing.
The disruptions of the biggest spectacles in American politics are just the latest symptoms of a political season upended by the coronavirus pandemic. Big rallies are canceled, as are the smaller fairs, festivals and farmers markets where politicians and party workers normally would be out canvassing.
Traditional door-knocking, fundraising cocktail parties, handshaking and kissing of babies have largely gone by the wayside for now, and some of those practices may ultimately vanish. The 2020 pandemic-era election (hopefully) will be a unique experience. But some lessons are likely to carry over.
For one, the conventions as grand events “may be a thing of the past,” American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Karlyn Bowman said.
“People have argued that conventions are overrated, that they’re not that meaningful. People have argued that in-person rallies are not that meaningful,” senior fellow John Hudak at the Brookings Institution said. “We’re going to see whether that’s true or not this year.”
After every election, experts try to parse out what worked and what didn’t. This year’s massive “natural experiment” is unique, Hudak said. “2020 is going to let us ask and answer a lot of really important questions about what is meaningful in a campaign.”
Here are seven ways COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, has changed the 2020 election so far.
1. The top issue
For many voters, COVID-19 has changed what the election is about.
Trump’s reelection campaign began the year with a tailwind. Unemployment was low and the economy was strong.
“He could point to positive economic numbers and peace and prosperity,” said Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
“COVID-19 changed all that.”
Unemployment has risen to Great Depression levels, and the economy has contracted sharply. With more than 5.2 million cases and 166,000 deaths from the ailment, most voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the pandemic. Without the economy to run on, critics have said the president has struggled to articulate an argument for reelection.
2. Shrunken conventions
The usual theatrics of the party conventions will be scaled down dramatically, but experts say it may not make much of a difference.
The conventions typically boost each candidate’s poll numbers a bit, but the “convention bump” usually is temporary, Bowman said.
“I don’t think it has much of an impact on the final outcome,” she added.
The impact could be even smaller this year because many voters have already made up their minds, Kondik noted. “All the partisans on both sides are pretty well lined up behind their respective party nominees.”
The impacts may be greater for the parties themselves. The conventions are big fundraising events. Also, party activists will miss out on the bonding and “organic conversations” about goals and strategies that would happen at an in-person event, Hudak added.
3. Canceled campaigning
Like the conventions, big, in-person rallies may do more to fire up partisans than sway undecided voters.
“Campaigns are going to need to figure out some other means of generating that enthusiasm,” Hudak said.
Losing campaign rallies may hurt Trump more than Biden, he added. Trump enjoys and draws energy from them.
“Not having those rallies, I think, not only hurts his ability to generate enthusiasm within his base,” he said, “I think it actually affects him personally.”
The Biden campaign may suffer less from canceled rallies but more from the loss of in-person, hands-on campaigning. Biden is “sometimes accused of being a little too touchy-feely in his interactions with people,” Kondik said. “But he’s known as being kind of a warm person and someone who gets close to people, and he just can’t do that.”
4. Virtual fundraising
Not only has the coronavirus canceled in-person campaigning, it has moved fund-raising online, too. No more pricey dinners with a chance to get close to the candidate. Donors have to settle for online video chats instead.
It doesn’t seem to have hurt.
“I see very little impact whatsoever on fundraising,” Bowman said.
Normally, armies of campaign workers would be fanning out across the country to knock on doors and encourage voters to go to the polls. Those activities have been scaled way back. For example, many labor unions, which usually would provide legions of workers to back Democratic campaigns, have canceled in-person get-out-the-vote activities.
While both parties are leaning heavily on television, mail and digital advertising, the Trump campaign is still out knocking on doors. Republicans generally have shown less concern about the pandemic.
Door-knocking has a small but significant effect on voter turnout, Kondik said, and “sometimes the margins are what decide presidential elections.”
6. Voter registration
Voter registration drives have been largely grounded, too. After starting the year stronger than 2016, registrations dropped sharply in March and April, according to a study of 12 states and the District of Columbia.
The study notes that most people register to vote at their local Department of Motor Vehicles, and the pandemic closed many DMV offices.
Person-to-person registration drives at festivals, supermarkets, busy street corners and other public locations have also been sharply curtailed.
Those efforts “have significant effects not only on how many people vote, but who votes,” Hudak said, adding, “And doing away with that can have some pretty significant effects.”
Both parties feel the effects, he added, so it’s hard to know what the net impact will be.
7. Vote by mail
Many states are embracing mail-in ballots as a safer alternative to in-person voting. Trump has claimed, repeatedly and without evidence, that it will lead to widespread fraud.
With unprecedented numbers of absentee ballots expected to be cast this election, “that can have some really challenging effects for not just the president, but down-ballot Republicans, as well,” Hudak said, referring to others on the ballot.
It also could make for a confusing Election Day.
“If a lot of Republicans are voting on Election Day and those votes are tallied first, it may look like Donald Trump is leading in the state, when in fact, he might ultimately end up losing the state,” Kondik said.
Sorting it out could take days or weeks, during which time, Kondik worries, conspiracy theories could proliferate.
“I think it’s important that we all communicate to voters that we may not know (the outcome) on election night the way that we’re used to in the past. And there’s nothing inherently nefarious about that,” he said.
NEW YORK (AP) — In a new video posted early Election Day, Beyoncé channels Pamela Anderson in the television program “Baywatch” – red one-piece swimsuit and all – and asks viewers to vote.
In the two-and-a-half-minute clip, set to most of “Bodyguard,” a four-minute cut from her 2024 country album “Cowboy Carter,” Beyoncé cosplays as Anderson’s character before concluding with a simple message, written in white text: “Happy Beylloween,” followed by “Vote.”
At a rally for Donald Trump in Pittsburgh on Monday night, the former president spoke dismissively about Beyoncé’s appearance at a Kamala Harris rally in Houston in October, drawing boos for the megastar from his supporters.
“Beyoncé would come in. Everyone’s expecting a couple of songs. There were no songs. There was no happiness,” Trump said.
She did not perform — unlike in 2016, when she performed at a presidential campaign rally for Hillary Clinton in Cleveland – but she endorsed Harris and gave a moving speech, initially joined onstage by her Destiny’s Child bandmate Kelly Rowland.
“I’m not here as a celebrity, I’m not here as a politician. I’m here as a mother,” Beyoncé said.
“A mother who cares deeply about the world my children and all of our children live in, a world where we have the freedom to control our bodies, a world where we’re not divided,” she said at the rally in Houston, her hometown.
“Imagine our daughters growing up seeing what’s possible with no ceilings, no limitations,” she continued. “We must vote, and we need you.”
Harris used the song in July during her first official public appearance as a presidential candidate at her campaign headquarters in Delaware. That same month, Beyoncé’s mother, Tina Knowles, publicly endorsed Harris for president.
Beyoncé gave permission to Harris to use the song, a campaign official who was granted anonymity to discuss private campaign operations confirmed to The Associated Press.
Outside of sports and a “Cold front coming down from Canada,” American news media only report on Canadian events that they believe are, or will be, influential to the US. Therefore, when Justin Trudeau’s announcement, having finally read the room, that Canada will be reducing the number of permanent residents admitted by more than 20 percent and temporary residents like skilled workers and college students will be cut by more than half made news south of the border, I knew the American media felt Trudeau’s about-face on immigration was newsworthy because many Americans would relate to Trudeau realizing Canada was accepting more immigrants than it could manage and are hoping their next POTUS will follow Trudeau’s playbook.
Canada, with lots of space and lacking convenient geographical ways for illegal immigrants to enter the country, though still many do, has a global reputation for being incredibly accepting of immigrants. On the surface, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver appear to be multicultural havens. However, as the saying goes, “Too much of a good thing is never good,” resulting in a sharp rise in anti-immigrant sentiment, which you can almost taste in the air. A growing number of Canadians, regardless of their political affiliation, are blaming recent immigrants for causing the housing affordability crises, inflation, rise in crime and unemployment/stagnant wages.
Throughout history, populations have engulfed themselves in a tribal frenzy, a psychological state where people identify strongly with their own group, often leading to a ‘us versus them’ mentality. This has led to quick shifts from complacency to panic and finger-pointing at groups outside their tribe, a phenomenon that is not unique to any particular culture or time period.
My take on why the American news media found Trudeau’s blatantly obvious attempt to save his political career, balancing appeasement between the pitchfork crowd, who want a halt to immigration until Canada gets its house in order, and immigrant voters, who traditionally vote Liberal, newsworthy; the American news media, as do I, believe immigration fatigue is why Kamala Harris is going to lose on November 5th.
Because they frequently get the outcome wrong, I don’t take polls seriously. According to polls in 2014, Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives and Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals were in a dead heat in Ontario, yet Wynne won with more than twice as many seats. In the 2018 Quebec election, most polls had the Coalition Avenir Québec with a 1-to-5-point lead over the governing Liberals. The result: The Coalition Avenir Québec enjoyed a landslide victory, winning 74 of 125 seats. Then there’s how the 2016 US election polls showing Donald Trump didn’t have a chance of winning against Hillary Clinton were ridiculously way off, highlighting the importance of the election day poll and, applicable in this election as it was in 2016, not to discount ‘shy Trump supporters;’ voters who support Trump but are hesitant to express their views publicly due to social or political pressure.
My distrust in polls aside, polls indicate Harris is leading by a few points. One would think that Trump’s many over-the-top shenanigans, which would be entertaining were he not the POTUS or again seeking the Oval Office, would have him far down in the polls. Trump is toe-to-toe with Harris in the polls because his approach to the economy—middle-class Americans are nostalgic for the relatively strong economic performance during Trump’s first three years in office—and immigration, which Americans are hyper-focused on right now, appeals to many Americans. In his quest to win votes, Trump is doing what anyone seeking political office needs to do: telling the people what they want to hear, strategically using populism—populism that serves your best interests is good populism—to evoke emotional responses. Harris isn’t doing herself any favours, nor moving voters, by going the “But, but… the orange man is bad!” route, while Trump cultivates support from “weird” marginal voting groups.
To Harris’s credit, things could have fallen apart when Biden abruptly stepped aside. Instead, Harris quickly clinched the nomination and had a strong first few weeks, erasing the deficit Biden had given her. The Democratic convention was a success, as was her acceptance speech. Her performance at the September 10th debate with Donald Trump was first-rate.
Harris’ Achilles heel is she’s now making promises she could have made and implemented while VP, making immigration and the economy Harris’ liabilities, especially since she’s been sitting next to Biden, watching the US turn into the circus it has become. These liabilities, basically her only liabilities, negate her stance on abortion, democracy, healthcare, a long-winning issue for Democrats, and Trump’s character. All Harris has offered voters is “feel-good vibes” over substance. In contrast, Trump offers the tangible political tornado (read: steamroll the problems Americans are facing) many Americans seek. With Trump, there’s no doubt that change, admittedly in a messy fashion, will happen. If enough Americans believe the changes he’ll implement will benefit them and their country…
The case against Harris on immigration, at a time when there’s a huge global backlash to immigration, even as the American news media are pointing out, in famously immigrant-friendly Canada, is relatively straightforward: During the first three years of the Biden-Harris administration, illegal Southern border crossings increased significantly.
The words illegal immigration, to put it mildly, irks most Americans. On the legal immigration front, according to Forbes, most billion-dollar startups were founded by immigrants. Google, Microsoft, and Oracle, to name three, have immigrants as CEOs. Immigrants, with tech skills and an entrepreneurial thirst, have kept America leading the world. I like to think that Americans and Canadians understand the best immigration policy is to strategically let enough of these immigrants in who’ll increase GDP and tax base and not rely on social programs. In other words, Americans and Canadians, and arguably citizens of European countries, expect their governments to be more strategic about immigration.
The days of the words on a bronze plaque mounted inside the Statue of Liberty pedestal’s lower level, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…” are no longer tolerated. Americans only want immigrants who’ll benefit America.
Does Trump demagogue the immigration issue with xenophobic and racist tropes, many of which are outright lies, such as claiming Haitian immigrants in Ohio are abducting and eating pets? Absolutely. However, such unhinged talk signals to Americans who are worried about the steady influx of illegal immigrants into their country that Trump can handle immigration so that it’s beneficial to the country as opposed to being an issue of economic stress.
In many ways, if polls are to be believed, Harris is paying the price for Biden and her lax policies early in their term. Yes, stimulus spending quickly rebuilt the job market, but at the cost of higher inflation. Loosen border policies at a time when anti-immigrant sentiment was increasing was a gross miscalculation, much like Trudeau’s immigration quota increase, and Biden indulging himself in running for re-election should never have happened.
If Trump wins, Democrats will proclaim that everyone is sexist, racist and misogynous, not to mention a likely White Supremacist, and for good measure, they’ll beat the “voter suppression” button. If Harris wins, Trump supporters will repeat voter fraud—since July, Elon Musk has tweeted on Twitter at least 22 times about voters being “imported” from abroad—being widespread.
Regardless of who wins tomorrow, Americans need to cool down; and give the divisive rhetoric a long overdue break. The right to an opinion belongs to everyone. Someone whose opinion differs from yours is not by default sexist, racist, a fascist or anything else; they simply disagree with you. Americans adopting the respectful mindset to agree to disagree would be the best thing they could do for the United States of America.
PHOENIX (AP) — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent proponent of debunked public health claims whom Donald Trump has promised to put in charge of health initiatives, said Saturday that Trump would push to remove fluoride from drinking water on his first day in office if elected president.
Fluoride strengthens teeth and reduces cavities by replacing minerals lost during normal wear and tear, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The addition of low levels of fluoride to drinking water has long been considered one of the greatest public health achievements of the last century.
Kennedy made the declaration Saturday on the social media platform X alongside a variety of claims about the heath effects of fluoride.
“On January 20, the Trump White House will advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water,” Kennedy wrote. Trump and his wife, Melania Trump, “want to Make America Healthy Again,” he added, repeating a phrase Trump often uses and links to Kennedy.
Trump told NBC News on Sunday that he had not spoken to Kennedy about fluoride yet, “but it sounds OK to me. You know it’s possible.”
The former president declined to say whether he would seek a Cabinet role for Kennedy, a job that would require Senate confirmation, but added, “He’s going to have a big role in the administration.”
Asked whether banning certain vaccines would be on the table, Trump said he would talk to Kennedy and others about that. Trump described Kennedy as “a very talented guy and has strong views.”
The sudden and unexpected weekend social media post evoked the chaotic policymaking that defined Trump’s White House tenure, when he would issue policy declarations on Twitter at virtually all hours. It also underscored the concerns many experts have about Kennedy, who has long promoted debunked theories about vaccine safety, having influence over U.S. public health.
In 1950, federal officials endorsed water fluoridation to prevent tooth decay, and continued to promote it even after fluoride toothpaste brands hit the market several years later. Though fluoride can come from a number of sources, drinking water is the main source for Americans, researchers say.
Officials lowered their recommendation for drinking water fluoride levels in 2015 to address a tooth condition called fluorosis, that can cause splotches on teeth and was becoming more common in U.S. kids.
In August, a federal agency determined “with moderate confidence” that there is a link between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in kids. The National Toxicology Program based its conclusion on studies involving fluoride levels at about twice the recommended limit for drinking water.
A federal judge later cited that study in ordering the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to further regulate fluoride in drinking water. U.S. District Judge Edward Chen cautioned that it’s not certain that the amount of fluoride typically added to water is causing lower IQ in kids, but he concluded that mounting research points to an unreasonable risk that it could be. He ordered the EPA to take steps to lower that risk, but didn’t say what those measures should be.
In his X post Saturday, Kennedy tagged Michael Connett, the lead attorney representing the plaintiff in that lawsuit, the environmental advocacy group Food & Water Watch.
Kennedy’s anti-vaccine organization has a lawsuit pending against news organizations including The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy is on leave from the group but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.
What role Kennedy might hold if Trump wins on Tuesday remains unclear. Kennedy recently told NewsNation that Trump asked him to “reorganize” agencies including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the Food and Drug Administration and some agencies under the Department of Agriculture.
But for now, the former independent presidential candidate has become one of Trump’s top surrogates. Trump frequently mentions having the support of Kennedy, a scion of a Democratic dynasty and the son of former Attorney General Robert Kennedy and nephew of President John F. Kennedy.
Kennedy traveled with Trump Friday and spoke at his rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump said Saturday that he told Kennedy: “You can work on food, you can work on anything you want” except oil policy.
“He wants health, he wants women’s health, he wants men’s health, he wants kids, he wants everything,” Trump added.
