MUMBAI (Reuters) – Indian government spending will support the economy during the pandemic, but private consumption will be needed to drive any economic recovery once the coronavirus threat eases, the central bank said on Tuesday.
“An assessment of aggregate demand during the year so far suggests that the shock to consumption is severe, and it will take quite some time to mend and regain the pre-COVID-19 momentum,” the Reserve Bank of India said in its annual report.
April-June quarter GDP data, set to be released on Aug. 31, is expected to show a contraction of 20%, according to a Reuters poll.
Private consumption will come back gradually with non-discretionary spending leading the way, until a durable increase in disposable incomes enables discretionary spending to catch up, the bank added.
“Upticks that became visible in May and June after the lockdown was eased … appear to have lost strength,” the bank said.
This weakening was mainly due to reimposition or tougher imposition of lockdowns, suggesting the contraction in economic activity was likely to prolong into the second fiscal quarter, it added.
Key downside risks to growth are wider pandemic spread, a deviation of seasonal monsoon rains from the predicted normal volume and global financial market volatility, the bank said.
The RBI advised that fiscal incentives for industry ought to be re-aligned in favour of productive labour-intensive companies so as to generate employment.
It also highlighted the need for specialised infrastructure-focused lending companies to help drive funding of major infrastructure projects. It also called for the diversification of financing options for companies, saying capital markets and foreign direct investment offer opportunities to bring in investors with a longer-term view, as also more durable capital.
The RBI said the banking sector needs to be freed of risk aversion, which is impeding the flow of credit to productive sectors and undermining the role of banks in the economy.
Despite a reduction in banks’ bad loans as of March 2020, the system’s resilience will be tested by the economic fallout of the pandemic, since measures to alleviate it masked the consequent build-up of stress in the system, the RBI said.
“Against this backdrop, a recapitalisation plan for public and private sector banks assumes critical importance,” it added.
In a separate report, the RBI had warned that banks’ bad loans could nearly double by the end of this fiscal year, while the capital adequacy ratio could fall to 11.8% in a severely stressed situation.
Data in the annual report showed frauds of 100,000 rupees and above at banks increased by 159% in terms of value in 2019/20, but the RBI said the date of occurrence of these was spread out over several previous years.
Total frauds stood at 1.86 trillion rupees in FY20 versus 715.43 billion rupees in FY19, data showed.
In the April-June quarter of 2020, however, frauds came down to 288.43 billion rupees in value versus 422.28 billion in the corresponding quarter in 2019.
The RBI’s own balance sheet increased 30.02% by June 30, it added.
The increase on the asset side was due to a rise in domestic and foreign investments, loans and gold while on the liability side it was due to the increase in notes issued, deposits and other liabilities, RBI said.
(Additional reporting by Nupur Anand and Manoj Kumar in New Delhi; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Steve Orlofsky)
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
