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Bank of Canada keeps key interest rate target on hold – BNN

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The Bank of Canada reiterated its pledge to keep interest rates at historic lows for years to come, but dialed back its willingness to take even more aggressive action and said it could adjust its bond purchase program.

In a decision Wednesday from Ottawa, policy makers led by Governor Tiff Macklem held the bank’s benchmark rate at 0.25 per cent and said they’ll leave it unchanged until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 per cent inflation target is “sustainably achieved.” The central bank also retained a pledge to buy government bonds at the current pace and maintain extraordinary monetary policy stimulus throughout what it calls the recuperation phase of the recovery.

The accommodative stance is largely unchanged from the last policy statement in July, part of the central bank’s efforts to help pull Canada out of the deepest downturn since the Great Depression. At the same time, the bank indicated it’s prepared to make some alterations to policy by paring quantitative easing if needed.

“The Bank was deliberately cryptic about its intentions in terms of modifying the QE program, as it doesn’t want to see yields spike higher and dull the stimulus low rates across the curve are delivering,” CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld said by email. “At some point, it will have to slow its purchases down to avoid owning too large a share of the outstanding issues.”

The central bank removed language about being prepared to offer more stimulus if necessary. It also said bond purchases will be “calibrated” to provide the needed stimulus, which analysts speculated may be a signal Macklem is setting the stage to temper his reliance on purchases if massive holdings begin to overly shrink supply.

Canada’s dollar rose 0.6 per cent to $1.3160 against the U.S. dollar at 11:50 a.m. in Toronto trading. Yields on government 10-year bonds rose 2 basis points to 0.59 per cent.

The central bank’s commitment could keep the policy rate unchanged until at least 2023, based on forecasts released in July. But Macklem had indicated he may tinker with the asset purchase program before then.

Balance Sheet

Growth in the central bank’s balance sheet has already stalled at about $540 billion (US$410 billion) since mid July, or about 27 per cent of nominal GDP, as increased holdings of government bonds are offset by declining treasury bills.

There is nothing in the statement, however, that indicates any adjustments will be imminent, and the central bank will be wary of doing anything that drives up yields. Policy makers on Wednesday said they will continue to purchase government bonds at the current pace “until the recovery is well underway.”

They also said the economy is evolving broadly in line with their July forecasts. While the bounce back in the third quarter looks to be faster than anticipated, the 13 per cent decline in output in the first half of this year was as expected. At the same time, business confidence and investment remains “subdued,” with the recovery likely to be long and uncertain.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“We expect the October meeting will show the bank’s central forecast scenario is on the pessimistic side. Yet faster-than-expected recuperation is unlikely to move the policy needle, as portions of the economy will not be healthy for an extended period.”

–Andrew Husby

“While recent data during the reopening phase is encouraging, the Bank continues to expect the recuperation phase to be slow and choppy as the economy copes with ongoing uncertainty and structural challenges,” according to the statement.

One way to potentially ease off hard bond purchase guidance without spooking markets could be to introduce yield curve control, where the central bank targets a specific medium-term interest rate. That would allow it to purchase just enough bonds to keep rates on hold, without committing to a specific amount. Or the bank may simply acknowledge that as the economy recovers, fewer asset purchases will be needed, Shenfeld said.

Some clarity could come Thursday when Macklem is scheduled to give a speech and press conference. The next rate decision is Oct. 28.

–With assistance from Erik Hertzberg.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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