Pedestrians carry shopping bags in London on July 18, 2020.
Simon Dawson/Reuters
Britain’s economy recovered half of its COVID-19 crash by the end of July, helped by pubs and restaurants reopening from lockdown, but the bounce-back is expected to slow as job losses mount and Brexit tensions rise.
After shrinking by a record 20 per cent in the second quarter, output expanded by 6.6 per cent in July, slower than June’s monthly rate, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 6.7 per cent.
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Finance minister Rishi Sunak welcomed the figures but added that people were rightly worried about the coming months.
The economy remains 12 per cent smaller than its level in February, before the pandemic hit Britain.
“July was probably the last of the big step-ups in activity and a full recovery probably won’t be achieved until early 2022,” Thomas Pugh, an economist with Capital Economics, said.
In response, the Bank of England was likely to ramp up its bond-buying stimulus programme by a third, or 250 billion pounds ($320 billion), Pugh said.
Britain’s economy suffered the sharpest second-quarter fall of any Group of Seven nation in the April-June period.
Hopes for a swift rebound have faded as businesses struggle to cope with social distancing rules and many people remain reluctant to travel on public transport or go to crowded places.
Tensions between London and Brussels over a post-Brexit trade deal are also mounting.
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JOB PROTECTION CALLS
Furthermore, unemployment is expected to rise sharply because Sunak has ruled out extending his coronavirus job retention scheme which is due to expire at the end of October.
Parliament’s Treasury Committee urged Sunak to “carefully consider” a targeted extension of the scheme and other support measures, a call echoed by the head of a major employers group.
Carolyn Fairbairn, director general of the Confederation of British Industry said she was in “deep conversation” with the government about a more selective version of the job subsidies scheme to avoid long-term job losses.
“We need to make sure that other countries, for example Germany, France, Australia, others who have put in place schemes like this, don’t steal a march on our economy at this time,” she told Sky News.
The pound fell slightly against the dollar as Friday’s data showed output in Britain’s dominant services sector was a bit weaker than expected. Growth in the much smaller manufacturing and construction sectors exceeded forecasts.
Complicating the outlook, Brexit risks have resurfaced.
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The European Union told Britain on Thursday it should scrap a plan to breach their divorce treaty, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government refused and pressed ahead with a draft law that could sink four years of talks.
“We are far from out of the woods yet,” Tom Stevenson, Investment Director, Personal Investing, at Fidelity International said, pointing to rising COVID-19 infections, new rules on social gatherings and the end of the furlough scheme.
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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
