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Canada’s ‘ticking demographic time bomb’ is a problem

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Housing prices are back on the Bank of Canada’s radar, Governor Stephen Poloz revealed in a fireside chat in Vancouver yesterday. “Should this housing rebound continue, we will be watching for signs of extrapolative expectations returning to certain major housing markets — in other words, froth.”

BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri points out that while housing prices haven’t returned to the 30% to 40% pace of early 2017, “they are clearly gaining steam,” with Toronto area home prices up 7.3% in December from the year before. “While the Bank may not be tempted to raise rates to skim off any ensuing froth, it will be disinclined to fan the flames,” Guatieri said.

Meanwhile, a solution, or relief anyway, for high housing prices may be found in Canada’s “ticking demographic time bomb,” suggests a recent report by RBC economics.

Canadian society is headed for massive change over the next decade as baby boomers age. RBC estimates that by the end of this coming decade, almost one in four Canadians will be seniors, up from 17% now. This will increase financial burdens on working-age Canadians and government, but may also help address the challenges in the housing market.

RBC expects baby boomers to “release” half a million homes over the next decade. Much of this “long awaited supply for new generations of buyers,” will be family homes near urban cores. These homes won’t go cheap but the turnover offers opportunities to transform and expand the housing supply, RBC says. A lot formerly occupied by one house could be turned into multiple units, for example. To make the most of this transition however, governments need to do more to modernize restrictive housing supply policies, the report says.

Here’s what you need to know this morning:

  • Vic Fedeli, Ontario Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade, will hold a media availability at Queen’s Park to discuss the latest release of Statistics Canada jobs numbers
  • Monte McNaughton, Ontario Minister of Labour, Training and Skills Development, will make an announcement about skilled trades in Toronto
  • Jim Carr, the prime minister’s special advisor for the Prairies, will make a funding announcement from the Protein Industries Supercluster in Winnipeg
  • The Lift & Co. Cannabis Business Conference and Expo continues in Vancouver
  • Notable earnings: Corus Entertainment
  • Today’s data: Canadian labour force survey, U.S. non-farm payrolls

The big surprise of U.S. markets’ banner year was the dismal earnings growth behind it. “It’s a rare feat for equities to completely shrug off the lack of earnings growth,” wrote CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld in a recent note. The chart below shows that 2019 was the only year of the top six years for the index since 1991 to see a year-on-year earnings retreat. Shenfeld said in retrospect the reason for the divergence was investors fleeing low or negative-yielding fixed income products for equities. The question is whether profits will return to the drivers’ seat? Shenfeld says stocks this year will face more competition from fixed income yields, and forecasts for earnings growth are not much brighter than in 2019.
Already there are signs that profits are coming back in fashion, he said. This past year the IPOs of many famous names light on the bottom line either flopped or were pulled. “If that’s a taste of what’s to come for the broader market, 2020 could be a year of minimal overall gains for U.S. stocks,” Shenfeld wrote.

— Please send your news, comments and stories to pheaven@postmedia.com. — Pamela Heaven @pamheaven

With files from The Canadian Press, Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg

 

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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