The dust is still settling from a truly stunning playoff result. The Denver Nuggets came back from 3-1 down for the second time this postseason, erasing double-digit deficits in each of the last three games against an opponent many considered a title favorite with the most talent in the league.
According to the Inpredictable in-game win probability model, the Nuggets’ advancement chances dropped to 0.2 percent at their nadir in Game 5, then to 0.4 percent during Game 6, and 8.1 percent during Game 7. Yet they came back once, and twice, and a third time, and now they’re on to the franchise’s first conference finals since 2009. The poor Clippers still haven’t made a conference finals appearance in franchise history.
From the Clippers’ perspective, the result is a calamity, no ifs, ands, or buts. But for Denver, the team’s play ever since falling behind against Utah in the first round, most ignominiously via a 124-87 shellacking in Game 3, reflects its promise for both the remainder of these playoffs and the future. The Nuggets have two transcendent young stars and a budding supporting cast; here are the three pillars of their comeback.
Jamal Murray, Superstar in Waiting
Murray scored 40 points in Game 7, including 20 in a swashbuckling second quarter that saw the fourth-year guard outscore the Clippers 11-4 by himself in the last few minutes before halftime. Added to his trio of scoreboard explosions against Utah—50 points in Game 4, 42 in Game 5, 50 in Game 6—this Game 7 showing moves Murray into rarefied territory.
Murray now has four games this postseason with 40-plus points. Only 12 other players have done so in one postseason; they’re all either in the Hall of Fame already or LeBron James:
Elgin Baylor in 1961
Wilt Chamberlain in 1962
Jerry West in 1965 and 1969
Rick Barry in 1967
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1977
Bernard King in 1984
Michael Jordan in 1989, 1990, 1992, and 1993
Hakeem Olajuwon in 1995
Shaquille O’Neal in 2000
Allen Iverson in 2001
Kobe Bryant in 2009
LeBron James in 2009 and 2018
Jamal Murray in 2020
And although some of the inconsistency that plagued Murray in the 2019 postseason has still come to bear, both his ceiling and floor have lifted since then—and also since this regular season. Murray averaged 18.5 points per game this regular season, and he’s up to 27.1 so far in the playoffs, giving him one of the largest scoring boosts in playoff history. Appearing on any list near Baylor, West, King, and Abdul-Jabbar—and playoff legend Glen “Big Baby” Davis—is quite the accomplishment.
Largest Points Per Game Improvement in the Playoffs (Min. 10 Games)
Season
Player
Regular Season
Playoffs
Improvement
Season
Player
Regular Season
Playoffs
Improvement
1957
Cliff Hagan
5.5
17.9
12.4
1983
Johnny Moore
12.2
22.5
10.2
1966
Elgin Baylor
16.6
26.8
10.2
1965
Jerry West
31.0
40.6
9.7
1981
Ernie Grunfeld
7.5
16.8
9.3
1995
Kevin Johnson
15.5
24.8
9.3
2009
Glen Davis
7.0
15.8
8.8
2020
Jamal Murray
18.5
27.1
8.6
2013
Reggie Jackson
5.3
13.9
8.6
1984
Bernard King
26.3
34.8
8.4
1977
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
26.2
34.6
8.4
2005
Steve Nash
15.5
23.9
8.3
2015
Bradley Beal
15.3
23.4
8.1
1962
Tom Meschery
12.1
20.1
8.0
Now, Murray gets to prepare for a matchup against a defensively stout Lakers squad that nonetheless struggles at times to contain high-profile guards. He could well add to his totals soon.
Nikola Jokic, Superstar Already
At full strength, the Clippers should have formed a frenetic defense—Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Patrick Beverley, and more switching and sliding into holes and stymieing offensive systems with their speed and range. They never reached that level, in part due to communication lapses and a lack of cohesion, and also in part because Jokic completely dismantled all coverages thrown his way.
By the end of the third quarter in Game 7, Jokic had already recorded a triple-double; he finished with an unprecedented stat line of 16 points, 22 rebounds, and 13 assists. The Clippers kept sending double-teams at maybe the best-passing big man in league history, and he kept finding the open man and using feints and sleight of hand to bend the defensive rotations where he wanted. He was the best player in a series with Leonard, a two-time Finals MVP, and not by a small margin either.
While Murray scores with the greats, Jokic tallies equally rare multi-category contributions. Here’s the full list of players to average at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists per game in a playoff campaign (minimum 10 games):
Oscar Robertson in 1963 (32, 13, and 9)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1972 (29, 18, and 5)
Larry Bird in 1984 (27, 11, and 6)
Charles Barkley in 1986 (25, 16, and 6)
Bird in 1987 (27, 10, and 7)
LeBron James in 2015 (30, 11, and 8)
Blake Griffin in 2015 (26, 13, and 6)
Nikola Jokic in 2019 (25, 13, and 8)
Jokic in 2020 (25, 11, and 6)
James in 2020 (27, 10, and 9)
Jokic is one of just three players, along with James and Bird, to accomplish this feat twice, and one of just seven to accomplish it at all. He’s also in just his second postseason, and 25 years old. His costar, Murray, is just 23.
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Rapid Defensive Improvements
Even beyond the breakouts on offense, the Nuggets burst back against both the Jazz and Clippers because of their play on the other end of the court. They started from about the lowest point imaginable. Through four games against the Jazz, the Nuggets were allowing 131.1 points per 100 possessions; for reference, that’s 15 points higher than the Mavericks, who sported the most efficient offense in league history, scored this season.
But in the 10 games since falling behind 3-1 to the Jazz, Denver’s defensive rating is a much more respectable 107.1—a mark that would have ranked fifth or sixth in the regular season. And much of that performance came against the Clippers, who boasted the second-best offense in the regular season and torched Dallas in the first round.
Some of that improvement comes from a key personnel change. Early against Utah, Denver clearly missed the injured Gary Harris and Will Barton, who ranked first and third on the team, respectively, in defensive value this season, according to FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric. Barton is still out, but Harris returned in Game 6 against Utah. Individual defensive rating is a noisy stat, but it sure doesn’t seem like a coincidence that the playoff Nuggets have allowed just 106.3 points per 100 possessions with Harris on the court, versus 117.0 with him off.
Harris’s return helped in two ways. First, he added another capable defender to the rotation, meaning that with Harris, Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant, and Torrey Craig, the Nuggets could always play at least three reliable defenders who don’t need the ball around Jokic and Murray. And the ensuing domino effect meant Michael Porter Jr. could come off the bench and play more of his minutes against inferior opponents, which allowed him to score while not giving up just as many buckets to the likes of Leonard and George on the other end.
Some of the Clippers’ offensive malaise was their own doing. Denver missed some rotations; the Clippers responded by helpfully missing open shots. No amount of defensive intensity can explain that across games 5, 6, and 7, the Nuggets outscored the Clippers 181-117 in the second half; that’s an average margin of 60-39.
But player by player, the Nuggets’ starters stood their ground against a more talented Clippers unit. Grant, for instance, was the main defender on Leonard in the series, and when they matched up, Leonard shot just nine free throws versus 59 field goals. That’s a free throw rate of 15 percent; for reference, Leonard’s free throw rate was 35 percent in the regular season, 42 percent against the Mavericks in the first round, and 44 percent last postseason. In Game 7, Leonard didn’t shoot a single free throw—or, in the fourth quarter, score any points at all.
Whether the Nuggets’ star power and newfound defensive purpose can propel them through another round, against another favored opponent, remains a question. The Lakers are better rested, with two shinier stars and more playoff experience; our Restart Odds think the Lakers are 75 percent favorites to advance to the Finals. But Denver has overcome significantly steeper odds twice already this postseason; what’s another upset for a team on this kind of rollicking run? And if the Lakers take control of the series early and race to a 3-1 lead, well, then the Nuggets will have them right where they want.
GUADALAJARA, Mexico – Canada’s Marina Stakusic fell 6-4, 6-3 to Poland’s Magdalena Frech in the quarterfinals of the Guadalajara Open tennis tournament on Friday.
The 19-year-old from Mississauga, Ont., won 61 per cent of her first-serve points and broke on just one of her six opportunities.
Stakusic had upset top-seeded Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (0) on Thursday night to advance.
In the opening round, Stakusic defeated Slovakia’s Anna Karolína Schmiedlová 6-2, 6-4 on Tuesday.
The fifth-seeded Frech won 62 per cent of her first-serve points and converted on three of her nine break point opportunities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Alejandro Kirk’s long single with the bases loaded provided the Toronto Blue Jays with a walk-off 4-3 win in the 11th inning of their series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday.
With the Cardinals outfield in, Kirk drove a shot off the base of the left-field wall to give the Blue Jays (70-78) their fourth win in 11 outings and halt the Cardinals’ (74-73) two-game win streak before 30,380 at Rogers Centre.
Kirk enjoyed a two-hit, two-RBI outing.
Erik Swanson (2-2) pitched a perfect 11th inning for the win, while Cardinals reliever Ryan Fernandez (1-5) took the loss.
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman enjoyed a seven-inning, 104-pitch outing. He surrendered his two runs on nine hits and two walks and fanned only two Cardinals.
He gave way to reliever Genesis Cabrera, who gave up a one-out homer to Thomas Saggese, his first in 2024, that tied the game in the eighth.
The Cardinals started swiftly with four straight singles to open the game. But they exited the first inning with only two runs on an RBI single to centre from Nolan Arendao and a fielder’s choice from Saggese.
Gausman required 28 pitches to escape the first inning but settled down to allow his teammates to snatch the lead in the fourth.
He also deftly pitched out of threats from the visitors in the fifth, sixth and seventh thanks to some solid defence, including Will Wagner’s diving stop, which led to a double play to end the fifth inning.
George Springer led off with a walk and stole second base. He advanced to third on Nathan Lukes’s single and scored when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. knocked in his 95th run with a double off the left-field wall.
Lukes scored on a sacrifice fly to left field from Spencer Horwitz. Guerrero touched home on Kirk’s two-out single to right.
In the ninth, Guerrero made a critical diving catch on an Arenado grounder to throw out the Cardinals’ infielder, with reliever Tommy Nance covering first. The defensive gem ended the inning with a runner on second base.
St. Louis starter Erick Fedde faced the minimum night batters in the first three innings thanks to a pair of double plays. He lasted five innings, giving up three runs on six hits and a walk with three strikeouts.
ON DECK
Toronto ace Jose Berrios (15-9) will start the second of the three-game series on Saturday. He has a six-game win streak.
The Cardinals will counter with righty Kyle Gibson (8-6).
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
CALGARY – Mired in their first four-game losing skid in 20 years, the Calgary Stampeders are going back to Jake Maier at quarterback on Saturday after he was benched for a game.
It won’t be an easy assignment.
Visiting McMahon Stadium are the Eastern Conference-leading Montreal Alouettes (10-2) who own the CFL’s best record. The Stampeders (4-8) have fallen to last in the Western Conference.
“Six games is plenty of time, but also it is just six games,” said Maier. “We’ve got to be able to get on the right track.”
Calgary is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2004.
“I do still believe in this team,” said Stampeders’ head coach and general manager Dave Dickenson. “I want to see improvement, though. I want to see guys on a weekly basis elevating their game, and we haven’t been doing that.”
Maier is one of the guys under the microscope. Two weeks ago, the second-year starter threw four interceptions in a 35-20 home loss to the Edmonton Elks.
After his replacement, rookie Logan Bonner, threw five picks in last week’s 37-16 loss to the Elks in Edmonton, the football is back in Maier’s hands.
“Any time you fail or something doesn’t go your way in life, does it stink in the moment? Yeah. But then the days go on and you learn things about yourself and you learn how to prepare a little bit better,” said Maier. “It makes you mentally tougher.”
Dickenson wants to see his quarterback making better decisions with the football.
“Things are going to happen, interceptions will happen, but try to take calculated risks, rather than just putting the ball up there and hoping that we catch it,” said Dickenson.
A former quarterback himself, he knows the importance of that vital position.
“You cannot win without good quarterback play,” Dickenson said. “You’ve got to be able to make some plays — off-schedule plays, move-around plays, plays that break down, plays that aren’t designed perfectly, but somehow you found the right guy, and then those big throws where you’re taking that hit.”
But it’s going to take a team effort, and that includes the club’s receiving corp.
“We always have to band together because we need everything to go right for our receivers to get the ball,” said Nik Lewis, the Stampeders’ receivers coach. “The running back has to pick up the blitz, the o-line has to block, the quarterback has to make the right reads, and then give us a catchable ball.”
Lewis brings a unique perspective to this season’s frustrations as he was a 22-year-old rookie in Calgary in 2004 when the Stamps went 4-14 under coach Matt Dunigan. They turned it around the next season and haven’t missed the playoffs since.”
“Thinking back and just looking at it, there’s just got to be an ultimate belief that you can get it done. Look at Montreal, they were 6-7 last year and they’ve gone 18-2 since then,” said Lewis.
Montreal is also looking to rebound from a 37-23 loss to the B.C. Lions last week. But for head coach Jason Maas, he says his team’s mindset doesn’t change, regardless of what happened the previous week.
“Last year when we went through a four-game losing streak, you couldn’t tell if we were on a four-game winning streak or a four-game losing streak by the way the guys were in the building, the way we prepared, the type of work ethic we have,” said Maas. “All our standards are set, so that’s all we focus on.”
While they may have already clinched a playoff spot, Alouettes’ quarterback Cody Fajardo says this closing stretch remains critical because they want to finish the season strong, just like last year when they won their final five regular-season games before ultimately winning the Grey Cup.
“It doesn’t matter about what you do at the beginning of the year,” said Fajardo. “All that matters is how you end the year and how well you’re playing going into the playoffs so that’s what these games are about.”
The Alouettes’ are kicking off a three-game road stretch, one Fajardo looks forward to.
“You understand what kind of team you have when you play on the road because it’s us versus the world mentality and you can feel everybody against you,” said Fajardo. “Plus, I always tend to find more joy in silencing thousands of people than bringing thousands of people to their feet.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
