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Souring Fundamentals Force Brent Crude Oil Below $40 – OilPrice.com

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Souring Fundamentals Force Brent Crude Oil Below $40 | OilPrice.com

Tom Kool

Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics, he is Oilprice.com’s Head of Operations

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Both the President and First Lady of the United States have tested positive for COVID-19 on a day when Brent oil prices crash below $40 and the U.S. rig count climbed.

For Global Energy Alert members there are now two new free reports available in your dashboard. The first of these reports is on how to interpret stock charts and the second outlines the three biggest mistakes made by traders today. Make sure you become a member to read these reports and many more.

Friday, October 2nd, 2020

Crude prices fell on Friday following news that President Donald Trump tested positive for the coronavirus. Broader equities also tumbled. As of midday trading, Brent was down more than 4 percent, dipping below $40 per barrel. 

Shale companies did poorly, but executives got paid. A Wall Street Journal analysis found that the median pay for executives of U.S. oil and gas companies rose for four consecutive years to $13 million in 2019, up from $9.9 million in 2015. Over that time period, median shareholder returns fell 35 percent. Energy was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, but shale CEOs received larger raises last year than in all but two of the 11 major industries analyzed. 

Moody’s: Natural gas faces long-term investment risk. A combination of legal challenges to natural gas pipelines, policies aimed at reducing emissions, and public scrutiny over natural gas could lead to a “measured reduction” in natural gas demand over the next two to three decades, according to a new report from Moody’s Investor Relations. “We’re raising the flag,” Ryan Wobbrock, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service Inc. and the lead analyst on the report, told E&E News. “We’re talking about a multidecade horizon of risk.”

Natural gas prices could soar. The highly volatile U.S. natural gas benchmark prices are set to trend higher in the coming months amid lower domestic production, higher demand in the winter, and recovering global gas prices in Europe and Asia. Henry Hub prices have been volatile over the past few weeks, but have firmed up at around $2.50/MMBtu, sharply higher than levels from just a few months ago. 

ExxonMobil stock falls on likely dim Q3 numbers. In an SEC filing on Thursday, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) provided a Q3 earnings considerations update of its expectations for the third-quarter results relative to the second quarter. On Friday, Exxon’s share price fell roughly 2 percent, dipping to $32.47 per share, nearing a multi-decade low hit earlier this year. 

NextEra considers $60 billion takeover of Duke Energy. NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) recently approached Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK), exploring what would be a $60 billion combination of two major utilities. 

Oasis Petroleum files for bankruptcy. Oasis Petroleum (NASDAQ: OAS) filed for bankruptcy on Wednesday, the latest driller to fall victim to the downturn. 

Demand concerns continue. U.S. gasoline demand remained flat for most of the third quarter, undercutting hopes of a rebound. “It’s hard to paint the bullish demand story for energy in the short term…I just don’t see it,” said Jennifer Rowland, senior energy analyst for Edward Jones. “Instead, I see all the warning signs.”

Oil traders doubt OPEC+ increases production. OPEC+ is scheduled to further unwind production cuts beginning in January, adding 2 mb/d back onto the market. But some traders doubt that the group will follow through due to weak demand. “I don’t think OPEC will increase production in January…If they do, the market will test them to the downside,” Pierre Andurand, founder and chief investment office at Andurand Capital, told the FT Global Commodities Summit. Related: Iraq Ships More Crude Oil Despite OPEC Output Cut Pledge

Trump signs executive order on rare earths. U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order declaring a national emergency in the mining industry, a move that seeks to curb the country’s reliance on rare earths in his latest bid to end China’s control of the market.

Another round of industry layoffs. Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) began cutting jobs on Tuesday, with about 12 percent of its workforce set to be let go. Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) said it would eliminate 9,000 jobs. Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) are in the process of restructuring. 

Total doesn’t see peak demand until 2030. While BP (NYSE: BP) said that the world likely already passed peak oil demand, French oil giant Total (NYSE: TOT) said in a new report that peak demand remains a decade away. Total said that it would boost spending on renewables to $3 billion annually by then and that it would cut sales of gasoline and diesel by 30 percent. 

Ohio cancels permit for gas storage. Ohio environmental regulators have canceled key permits needed for an underground natural gas liquids storage facility, dimming hopes that the region will become a major natural gas liquids storage hub that would bolster the buildout of a broader petrochemical hub.

Abandoned wells could leave billions of dollars to taxpayers. U.S. taxpayers could be on the hook for tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars in clean up costs for abandoned wells as a growing number of producers collapse into bankruptcy, according to a new report from Carbon Tracker. Related: Natural Gas Prices Explode On Stronger Demand

Denmark gives greenlight to Nord Stream 2. Denmark gave the go-ahead to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, boosting a project that is more than 90 percent complete, but that has been held up recently because of U.S. sanctions and a backlash over the suspected poisoning of a Russian opposition leader by the Kremlin. 

Vietnam approves $5 billion LNG project. Vietnamese city Haiphong approved of a $5 billion LNG project to be developed by ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM).

Attempts to open up Atlantic Coast for drilling on brink of collapse. The Trump administration’s efforts to open up the Atlantic to offshore oil and gas exploration could collapse as permits for seismic testing by four companies are set to expire without being renewed. 

$110 billion in asset sales could be difficult to pull off. Large oil and gas companies have proposed as much as $110 billion in asset sales in an effort to cut back on debt, but finding buyers could prove tricky. “This is not a very good time to sell assets,” Total (NYSE: TOT) CEO Patrick Pouyanne said on Wednesday.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com 

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

___

Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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