This is an excerpt from Second Opinion, a weekly roundup of health and medical science news emailed to subscribers every Saturday morning. If you haven’t subscribed yet, you can do that by clicking here.
At first glance, Canada’s second wave of COVID-19 is looking a lot different than the first wave.
Testing capacity has drastically improved, barriers to getting tested have been lowered, stocks of personal protective equipment have grown, and while we still don’t have a safe and effective vaccine — we know a lot more about COVID-19 and how to treat it.
And despite a rapid rise in new cases across the country, hospitalizations and deaths are comparatively lower so far, which might lead you to believe the second wave will be less dangerous than the first.
“It may seem somewhat comforting to say, ‘Yes, there are a lot of cases, but we’re not seeing our hospitals overwhelmed, and we’re not seeing a huge number of deaths so far. So things are better, right?'” said Dr. Samir Sinha, director of geriatrics at Sinai Health and University Health Network in Toronto.
“The truth of the matter is, we’re just getting started.”
Sinha said COVID-19 outbreaks typically followed a predictable pattern: people increase their number of contacts amid relaxed restrictions, then weeks later cases rise, hospitalizations spike and more deaths occur.
Dr. Samir Sinha says the rising case numbers across Canada are lagging indicators that will likely lead to increases in hospitalizations and deaths — suggesting older Canadians may be next to feel the brunt of the pandemic. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
“We need to modify our behaviour and do everything we can to try and wrestle it down as soon as possible,” he said.
“If we don’t, we’re going to be thinking back a month from now saying, ‘What were we doing, and why did we even allow it to get this bad?'”
Some provinces could face worse second wave
In Canada’s hardest-hit provinces, cracks are already beginning to show.
“The second wave isn’t just starting. It’s already underway,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said last week. “The numbers are clear.”
Ontario public health officials are projecting up to 1,000 new cases per day this month, and the number of patients in the province’s hospitals with confirmed cases of COVID-19 doubled in just one week.
Testing backlogs in Ontario also reached a record high of more than 90,000 this week, and the province’s associate chief medical officer of health, Dr. Barbara Yaffe, said the number of contacts per COVID-19 case is “much higher” than in the first wave.
“We did lose focus over the summer, and we didn’t quite do enough to prevent a second wave,” said Dr. Irfan Dhalla, vice-president of physician quality at Unity Health, which includes St. Michael’s and St. Joseph’s hospitals in Toronto.
“Everybody who works in health care is extremely worried, and now we need to think about what do we do to stop the second wave, and what do we do to prevent the third wave?”
WATCH | Premier Ford introduces more restrictions in Ontario:
Though focused primarily on Ottawa, Toronto and Peel Region, Ontario Premier Doug Ford unveiled new public health measures for the province to stop the spread of the coronavirus. 3:57
Ontario introduced stricter public health measures on Friday, including pausing social circles and mandating mask-wearing provincewide where physical distancing isn’t possible, while targeting current hot spots like Toronto, Ottawa and Peel Region as the province reported a record-high 732 daily cases of coronavirus.
Quebec recorded more than 800 new daily cases three times this week, its highest daily increase since May, including 933 on Thursday and 1,052 on Friday.
Quebec also unveiled new legal tools for police to enforce stricter public health measures taking effect in the province’s designated red zones.
“Lives are at stake. We want to keep our children in schools,” Quebec Premier François Legault said Wednesday. “We also want to protect our health network.”
WATCH | Quebec’s red zones shut down for 28 days to slow COVID-19 spread:
Red zone restrictions are in effect in three Quebec areas, including Montreal and Quebec City, meaning bars are closed and restaurants no longer have indoor dining for the next 28 days as the province tries to manage a spike of COVID-19 cases. 2:01
British Columbia reported 14 outbreaks in long-term care or assisted-living facilities and three in acute-care facilities but has so far managed to avoid outbreaks in schools and has kept its daily average of cases trending downward for now.
Alberta announced a total of 67 cases tied to outbreaks at Calgary’s Foothills hospital — the second largest outbreak at a health-care institution in the province since the pandemic began.
Sinha said the rising case numbers across the country are lagging indicators that will likely lead to increases in hospitalizations and deaths — suggesting older Canadians may be next to feel the brunt of the pandemic.
“It’s only a matter of time before we start seeing older members of our society start catching this and then the consequences, unfortunately, become quite apparent,” he said.
“Now if we’re looking at a second wave that’s going to be bigger than the last wave, we know that this is going to result in likely thousands of older people dying.”
Lessons from the first wave
Let’s look at what we learned in the first wave of the pandemic in Canada.
Older Canadians who are at higher risk of serious outcomes of COVID-19 paid a terrible cost, with those over 70 accounting for almost 90 per cent of all deaths in Canada.
Coronavirus outbreaks hit the poorest and most diverse neighbourhoods of our major cities incredibly hard, while Black Canadians were more likely than others to be infected or hospitalized by the disease.
We’ve also learned that physical distancing, wearing a mask and limiting your close contact with others — especially in confined settings with low ventilation — drastically reduce your risk of catching it.
But the virus also hasn’t significantly mutated to become any less infectious or less deadly.
WATCH | Re-examining the role of COVID-19 superspreaders:
More research into how COVID-19 is spread shows that because not everyone sheds the same amount of virus, many infections are spread by a few people known as superspreaders. 2:01
“This is still a virus that hospitalizes people, and it still kills people, and it is still challenging to treat, and it is still disrupting the entire world,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease physician and a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
“The virus hasn’t changed. It’s still the same biologically. It’s just that now we have much more in our tool belt.”
Adalja said despite the fact that health-care workers are getting more adept at treating it and there’s a better survival rate for those who are hospitalized, we still need to take the second wave seriously.
Testing backlogs in Ontario reached a record high of more than 90,000 this week, and the province’s associate chief medical officer of health, Dr. Barbara Yaffe, said the number of contacts per COVID-19 case is ‘much higher’ than in the first wave. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
“We still need more tools. We still don’t have a tool that can prevent somebody who’s infected from needing hospitalization,” he said.
“Absent that, I think we still have to really be aggressive with controlling community spread.”
What can we do to slow the second wave?
Steven Hoffman, director of the Global Strategy Lab and a global health law professor at York University in Toronto who studies pandemics, said it’s important to remember the second wave of COVID-19 is no less of a threat than the first.
“It’s everyone’s hope that we’ll be better prepared to deal with the second wave because we’ve learned so much from the first wave,” he said.
“But this virus remains as dangerous as it was before, and I’m actually even more worried for the second wave.”
Hoffman said he became concerned early in the summer when hard-hit provinces began lifting restrictions because not enough was being done to prepare Canadians for the possibility that lockdowns could be reimposed.
“No one was told from our political leaders that we’re now able to temporarily lift these measures until a time when they’ll likely be needed,” he said. “That’s just not the way to prepare people.”
Adalja said the threshold for re-entering lockdowns in the second wave needs to be “data-driven” and targeted toward activities that are proven to lead to spread in specific regions.
Steven Hoffman says one of his biggest concerns is whether Canadians will be resistant to the idea of re-entering lockdown, if it’s deemed necessary. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press)
The ‘big worry’
“You should only use a lockdown when you have fouled up your response so bad that that’s all you have left to do,” he said.
“You don’t want people to behave as if we’re not in a pandemic on the one hand, and on the other hand the alternative isn’t just to completely shut the whole country down again.”
Hoffman said one of his biggest concerns is whether Canadians will be resistant to the idea of re-entering lockdown, if it’s deemed necessary.
“We know that people are exhausted from containment measures, and my big worry going into a second wave is that people won’t be willing to follow public health directives, which we all really need to do,” he said.
“That’s when this pandemic would become much worse than it is and potentially worse than the first wave.”
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TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?
It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.
Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.
And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.
Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.
Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.
Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.
“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.
Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.
“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.
“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”
Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.
“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.
“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”
Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.
In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.
“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.
Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.
“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.
Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.
Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.
“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.
“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”
Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.
A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.
“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.
Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.
“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.
“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.
Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.
Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.
Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.
Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.
“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”
The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.
Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.
“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.
Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.
The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.
Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.
Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.
But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.
Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.
“It’s literally incredible.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.
The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.
It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.
CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.
The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.
Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
