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Indo-Pak trade embargo has hit Punjab’s economy – The Tribune India

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Ranjit Singh Ghuman

Professor of Economics, CRRID, Chandigarh

Though trade is an engine of economic growth, Indo-Pak trade also needs to be understood in its strategic politico-economic importance for both neighbouring countries. The relevance of the land route trade through the ICP-Attari, too, needs to be appreciated in this vein. Eventually, it has the potentialities to provide trade access to the Central Asia and Middle East, besides paving the way for developing friendly relations with neighbours, so important for India’s aspirations of becoming a superpower. Both countries should act and behave in a responsible manner and keeping in view the larger interests of their citizens, they should resume trade at the earliest possible, notwithstanding their political animosity.

The strengthening of trade has huge potential for growth and employment not only for Punjab (border and landlocked state) but also for the north-west India. It is equally true for Pakistan’s Punjab.

Immediately after Independence, India and Pakistan had a huge stake in each other’s trade. However, over time, their bilateral trade witnessed a drastic decline, mainly because of the fear psychosis. Their trade relations have always been subject to a faceoff between economic rationality and politico-security rationality and the latter has always been the deciding factor.

The nine-year trade embargo, driven by the three-week war in 1965, supports such a perception. In the process, they lost an opportunity to reap the benefits of their huge trade potentials. The current trade embargo — virtual embargo in February 2019 when India imposed a 200 per cent customs duty and Pakistan imposed a trade embargo in August 2019 — is also a manifestation of their hostile political relations.

According to a World Bank report (2018), the bilateral annual trade potential between India and Pakistan is to the tune of $37 billion. In my PhD thesis (1985) on Indo-Pak trade, I estimated that in 1995, their bilateral trade should have been around $7 billion. However, their actual trade was just around $2.56 billion in 2018-19. Around 25 per cent of it is taking place through the ICP-Attari. Just imagine how much gains would have been there even if half of the World Bank estimated trade-potential could have been realised.

Paradoxically, informal trade between the two nations has always been there despite the trade embargoes — often via other countries, such as the UAE. The border and landlocked states, such as Punjab, have always been the worst sufferers in such a scenario as trade originating from Punjab and its neighbouring states becomes economically unviable as compared to the states having proximity to sea ports.

Exports originating from Punjab can reach Pakistan — through ICP-Attari — in much less time and at a much lower transport and trans-shipment costs as compared to the sea ports and via a third country. The same is applicable to imports from Pakistan.

A study by the Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development (CRRID), completed in August 2020, revealed that the current trade embargo has had a significant adverse impact on Punjab’s economy. To disseminate the findings, we organised a webinar on September 14, in which 13 panellists comprising eminent scholars, diplomats, industrialists, exporters/importers from India and Pakistan expressed their views. Besides, about 75 other participants from the academia, civil society, traders and students attended the webinar. All panellists and participants advocated that the adverse political relations should not come in the way of normal trade relations as the latter can, rather, help normalise political ties.

We were expecting active participation of MLAs and MPs of Punjab as 41 MLAs and all 20 MPs were invited to the webinar, but no one, except one MLA, responded. Their presence at the webinar would have sent a positive message to the stakeholders, besides empowering them to formulate a collective and affirmative strategy to prevail upon the Union Government.

Our field study revealed that Punjab (border and landlocked state) and its stakeholders (exporters, importers, manufacturers, truck operators, porters, roadside eateries, filling stations, weighing bridges, retailers and wholesalers, private schools, health clinics, repair shops, auto-dealers and liquor shops, tea and beverages etc) have suffered huge losses in income and employment due to the closure of ICP-Attari for trade.

Entrepreneurs, truck owners and traders are unable to repay the installments of loans. A large number of truck owners had to sell their trucks at a much lower price to repay the loans and many trucks are lying idle and getting depreciated. The parents had to withdraw children from private schools, the seriously ill people are suffering for want of treatment, and many are facing mild to serious depression.

Our estimates have revealed that the above-mentioned service providers just in Amritsar district have suffered an income loss of about Rs 152 crore during the last 18 months of trade curbs and embargo. Exporters and importers have suffered an income loss of Rs 1,178 crore during the same period. Government agencies — Customs, plant protection, quarantine storage department and Central Warehousing Corporation — also lost revenues of about Rs 774 crore during the same period.

Based on these moderate estimates, the total income loss comes out to be Rs 2,104 crore during the last 18 months of trade curbs and embargo. This, however, does not include the financial loss to the manufacturers-cum-exporters and truck owners whose investment has been rendered idle, besides maintenance cost. Leaving aside the government revenue, most of the income loss is to the stakeholders in Punjab. The consequent operation of inverse-multiplier is aggravating the losses.

Some small-scale manufacturers of agricultural implements in the Malwa region of Punjab had to forego the export of straw reapers to Pakistan — worth Rs 60 crore per annum, with a huge potential in future as the product is in high demand — because of the trade embargo. Exporters of cotton (Nahar Spinning Mills and Vardhman Group) are also suffering from an unused capacity of specially designed spindles of particular counts, suiting the requirements of Pakistan importers.

Direct employment of nearly 12,000 workers (including 2,500 porters, 1,000 drivers and cleaners), in addition to a huge indirect employment, have gone because of the trade curbs. Thousands of families have lost their livelihood. Needless to say, the Covid-19-driven lockdown must have pushed them into a more vulnerable situation.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

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FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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