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Will COVID-19 become endemic? Here's what that means – CTV News

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TORONTO —
No one knows when the pandemic will end, but one possibility is that COVID-19 never really goes away but becomes another endemic infectious disease that scientists learn to anticipate and control.

It’s a possibility explored in detail by Hans Heesterbeek, an epidemiologist with Utrecht University in the Netherlands, who calls it a “realistic scenario.” In a recent article for The Conversation, Heesterbeek pointed out that there’s little reason to believe a vaccine will immediately turn life back to normal, even when a safe option is made available.

Instead, it’s possible that the virus could eventually slow down due to immunity or vaccination, but never totally disappear. In this case, the coronavirus would continue to infect people at a “low, sometimes predictable rate,” Heesterbeek wrote, fitting the definition of an endemic.

Endemic diseases are illnesses that are anticipated and well understood, and doctors have the tools and know-how to manage such infections. For instance, chicken pox is endemic in North America, as is malaria in certain regions of Africa.

COVID-19 could be endemic only in certain parts of the world, and all it takes for the virus to keep spreading through populations is a sufficient number of people who remain susceptible to infection. These endemic infections could also follow a seasonal pattern, as is the case with other coronaviruses.

On a technical level, an infection is considered an endemic when each person with the infection passes it on to one other person. In an epidemic where cases are rising, this rate, known as the reproduction number, is greater than one.

Public safety measures, such as wearing a mask or physical distancing, are meant to reduce the reproduction number as low as possible in hopes of limiting the spread of the disease.

It’s important to note that immunity remains a major question mark in our current understanding of COVID-19. Scientists don’t know how long immunity lasts, though it’s believed to be many months. Researchers from the U.S. recently confirmed the country’s first case of re-infection, and some Canadian experts say reinfection may be more common than we think.

Other coronaviruses, such as the virus that causes a cold, provide only a fleeting layer of immunity, which is why it’s possible to catch a cold again and again.

If COVID-19 becomes endemic, the size of the outbreaks will depend on the effectiveness of treatments and vaccines. As Heesterbeek wrote, the virus will be manageable if doctors have the necessary medical tools at their disposal.

“COVID-19 will then be like several other diseases that we have learned to live with and many people will experience during their lives,” he wrote.

Under these circumstances, vaccines would play an important role. Annual coronavirus vaccines, similar to the flu shot, could be one possible solution, or a more lasting vaccine could be given to children with the possibility for booster shots.

Canada added more than 2,000 cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday as the country nears 20,000 active cases of the virus. Another 23 people died, according to national tallies.

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How many Nova Scotians are on the doctor wait-list? Number hit 160,000 in June

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.

The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.

Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.

“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”

The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.

A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.

Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.

“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.

Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.

The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.

“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Newfoundland and Labrador monitoring rise in whooping cough cases: medical officer

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.

Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.

The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.

“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.

Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.

Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.

A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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