There is a certain desperation in the air these days for evidence that speaks to any kind of return to normalcy in the near future. As I wrote last time, it promises to be a long, dark winter.
The only thing that can make it more bearable is some glimpse of light in the distance.
With this in mind, I listened in on the recent 2020 Ottawa Real Estate Forum (virtual edition). It featured a lot of talk, but not many facts to hang your hat on.
Other articles on the RENX site offer a recap of the Forum’s highpoints, so I won’t repeat them here, beyond the following:
* A hybrid model of work from home and work from the traditional office is likely to prevail versus one becoming overly dominant at the expense of the other;
* The pandemic (as I have noted before) is not a harbinger of doom for most segments of commercial real estate. Rather, it is an accelerant for those paradigm shifts that were already underway – such as the federal government already looking to reduce its real estate footprint across the country by about 25 per cent over the next couple of decades;
* Issues previously present in a large urban market, such as Ottawa’s pressing need for new residential rental stock, haven’t disappeared and will remain a factor. The fix for the issue, however, may now take a modified form thanks to the pandemic-driven shifts in how people will choose to live and work.
I don’t profess to have a crystal ball, but if these conclusions prove true, I see the following consequences:
Middle managers redundant?:
Those management types who like to keep a constant eye on everyone haven’t been able to do so with remote working.
We’ve had more than enough time now to gauge the true impact on productivity, creativity and team cohesion of a dispersed team. It works well for some and not so for others.
Why? There are two reasons – how any one person’s brain is wired and what type of work they do.
What the surge in remote working may prove for many workplaces is that if you have in place a proper workflow and communications structure and performance metrics (to flag underachievers), along with competent people in the right positions, middle management may prove to be an unnecessary layer of the org chart that just doesn’t add much value for themoney.
Demand for more flexible housing designs:
Working from home from the kitchen table or the edge of the bed loses its lustre rather quickly, particularly if the kids are attending school remotely.
Families need the flexibility of a housing design that may offer two segregated spaces for a proper home office, without having to purchase a home of 4,000 square feet or more to get it.
Upward pressure on salaries:
But even so, incorporating this additional space into a design will still mean a somewhat larger home than what a family would have normally required if the breadwinners worked away from home at an office. Larger homes, of course, cost more.
This may mean that remote workers may come to demand higher salaries and jump ship as needed to find an employer willing to accommodate.
Standard office designs will no longer cut it:
The recent trend of packing more people into a smaller footprint likely will be at an end. Either because it’s a government-mandated requirement or because people will demand it, there will have to be more square footage assigned to an individual.
If a large proportion of the workforce is working from home full-time or even part-time, this may not be a problem.
But . . . people will have new expectations and awareness around personal hygiene now, too. They say it only takes about 30 days to develop a new habit and we are now seven months and counting into the pandemic.
This means things like the traditional office bathroom design may have to go.
Demand for more space between sinks and urinals, and the replacement of standard entry doors with the kind of barrier-free entrances we see in airport and shopping mall bathrooms, may become the norm. All this will increase space requirements and demand a reno.
What the dollars and cents say
Regardless of what the next year or two holds for us, this much is certain – people continue to buy, sell and invest in real estate.
This is a highly speculative industry, after all, driven by two things – most of our lives are spent under one kind of roof or another, and how we design and use space has never remained the same.
I track commercial transaction data in Ontario and the numbers continue to suggest resilient levels of activity. Looking at transactions worth $10 million or more, we have seen 261 transactions across the province from the beginning of March 2020, versus 353 in the same period in 2019.
The total dollar value of these transactions is down almost 18 per cent – from about $10.6 billion to $8.7 billion. While there has been a decline, there are still transactions taking place.
Meanwhile, fuelled in part by bargain basement interest rates, housing markets in many regions continue to be on a tear. Ottawa is a prime example.
Some anecdotal reports attribute this to a flight to safety, as people flee the urban core for the perceived safety of more space in the ‘burbs or even adjacent rural areas – why continue to live in a congested city if you’re going to be working from home?
This may account for some of the activity and price inflation we have seen in, for example, Ottawa and nearby rural communities. But, it by no means accounts for all of it – bidding wars on properties are happening even in old central urban neighbourhoods like mine.
It remains to be seen how sustainable these current spikes and patterns in residential resale activity will be, but these price increases are not just in the large cities. In recent data from across the country, the greatest percentage increases were in New Brunswick.
Whether it’s the commercial or the residential end of things, we can only continue to wait and see and let the markets speak for themselves.
To discuss this or any valuation topic in the context of your property, please contact me at jclark@regionalgroup.com. I am always interested in your feedback and suggestions for future articles.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
In the quest to find cities where renters can enjoy the best of all worlds, a recent study analyzed 24 metrics across three key categories—Housing & Economy, Quality of Life, and Community. The study ranked the 100 largest cities in Canada to determine which ones offer the most to their renters.
Here are the top 10 cities that emerged as the best for renters in 2024:
St. John’s, NL
St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, stand out as the top city for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its vibrant cultural scene, stunning natural beauty, and welcoming community, St. John’s offers an exceptional quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing, a robust economy, and low unemployment rates, making it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching living experience. Its rich history, picturesque harbour, and dynamic arts scene further enhance its appeal, ensuring that renters can enjoy both comfort and excitement in this charming coastal city.
Sherbrooke, QC
Sherbrooke, Quebec, emerges as a leading city for renters in Canada for 2024, offering a blend of affordability and quality of life. Nestled in the heart of the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke is known for its picturesque landscapes, vibrant cultural scene, and strong community spirit. The city provides affordable rental options, low living costs, and a thriving local economy, making it an ideal destination for those seeking both comfort and economic stability. With its rich history, numerous parks, and dynamic arts and education sectors, Sherbrooke presents an inviting environment for renters looking for a well-rounded lifestyle.
Québec City, QC
Québec City, the capital of Quebec, stands out as a premier destination for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its rich history, stunning architecture, and vibrant cultural heritage, this city offers an exceptional quality of life. Renters benefit from affordable housing, excellent public services, and a robust economy. The city’s charming streets, historic sites, and diverse culinary scene provide a unique living experience. With top-notch education institutions, numerous parks, and a strong sense of community, Québec City is an ideal choice for those seeking a dynamic and fulfilling lifestyle.
Trois-Rivières, QC
Trois-Rivières, nestled between Montreal and Quebec City, emerges as a top choice for renters in Canada. This historic city, known for its picturesque riverside views and rich cultural scene, offers an appealing blend of affordability and quality of life. Renters in Trois-Rivières enjoy reasonable housing costs, a low unemployment rate, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city’s well-preserved historic sites, bustling arts community, and excellent educational institutions make it an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Saguenay, QC
Saguenay, located in the stunning Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, is a prime destination for renters seeking affordable living amidst breathtaking natural beauty. Known for its picturesque fjords and vibrant cultural scene, Saguenay offers residents a high quality of life with lower housing costs compared to major urban centers. The city boasts a strong sense of community, excellent recreational opportunities, and a growing economy. For those looking to combine affordability with a rich cultural and natural environment, Saguenay stands out as an ideal choice.
Granby, QC
Granby, nestled in the heart of Quebec’s Eastern Townships, offers renters a delightful blend of small-town charm and ample opportunities. Known for its beautiful parks, vibrant cultural scene, and family-friendly environment, Granby provides an exceptional quality of life. The city’s affordable housing market and strong sense of community make it an attractive option for those seeking a peaceful yet dynamic place to live. With its renowned zoo, bustling downtown, and numerous outdoor activities, Granby is a hidden gem that caters to a diverse range of lifestyles.
Fredericton, NB
Fredericton, the capital city of New Brunswick, offers renters a harmonious blend of historical charm and modern amenities. Known for its vibrant arts scene, beautiful riverfront, and welcoming community, Fredericton provides an excellent quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing options, scenic parks, and a strong educational presence with institutions like the University of New Brunswick. Its rich cultural heritage, coupled with a thriving local economy, makes Fredericton an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.
Saint John, NB
Saint John, New Brunswick’s largest city, is a coastal gem known for its stunning waterfront and rich heritage. Nestled on the Bay of Fundy, it offers renters an affordable cost of living with a unique blend of historic architecture and modern conveniences. The city’s vibrant uptown area is bustling with shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions, while its scenic parks and outdoor spaces provide ample opportunities for recreation. Saint John’s strong sense of community and economic growth make it an inviting place for those looking to enjoy both urban and natural beauty.
Saint-Hyacinthe, QC
Saint-Hyacinthe, located in the Montérégie region of Quebec, is a vibrant city known for its strong agricultural roots and innovative spirit. Often referred to as the “Agricultural Technopolis,” it is home to numerous research centers and educational institutions. Renters in Saint-Hyacinthe benefit from a high quality of life with access to excellent local amenities, including parks, cultural events, and a thriving local food scene. The city’s affordable housing and close-knit community atmosphere make it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Lévis, QC
Lévis, located on the southern shore of the St. Lawrence River across from Quebec City, offers a unique blend of historical charm and modern conveniences. Known for its picturesque views and well-preserved heritage sites, Lévis is a city where history meets contemporary living. Residents enjoy a high quality of life with excellent public services, green spaces, and cultural activities. The city’s affordable housing options and strong sense of community make it a desirable place for renters looking for both tranquility and easy access to urban amenities.
This category looked at factors such as average rent, housing costs, rental availability, and unemployment rates. Québec stood out with 10 cities ranking at the top, demonstrating strong economic stability and affordable housing options, which are critical for renters looking for cost-effective living conditions.
Québec again led the pack in this category, with five cities in the top 10. Ontario followed closely with three cities. British Columbia excelled in walkability, with four cities achieving the highest walk scores, while Caledon topped the list for its extensive green spaces. These factors contribute significantly to the overall quality of life, making these cities attractive for renters.
Victoria, BC, emerged as the leader in this category due to its rich array of restaurants, museums, and educational institutions, offering a vibrant community life. St. John’s, NL, and Vancouver, BC, also ranked highly. Québec City, QC, and Lévis, QC, scored the highest in life satisfaction, reflecting a strong sense of community and well-being. Additionally, Saskatoon, SK, and Oshawa, ON, were noted for having residents with lower stress levels.
For a comprehensive view of the rankings and detailed interactive visuals, you can visit the full study by Point2Homes.
While no city can provide a perfect living experience for every renter, the cities highlighted in this study come remarkably close by excelling in key areas such as housing affordability, quality of life, and community engagement. These findings offer valuable insights for renters seeking the best places to live in Canada in 2024.
