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Pollsters missed the mark, says Georgian political science teacher

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That’s two straight American presidential elections the pollsters have gotten wrong, says Georgian College political science teacher Geoffrey Booth.

Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s six to 10 per cent lead — in several polls — has all but evaporated into a dead heat with Republican President Donald Trump in an election which might not be settled for days.

Approximately the same thing happened to Hillary Clinton’s lead against Trump four years ago.

“I was skeptically hopeful that the polls would get it right… but that’s the second time that they’ve got this wrong,” Booth said Wednesday.

“We’ve seen similar incidents in Canadian politics, but I thought because of what happened in 2016, that they would have drilled down more to make sure that what they were seeing was actually what was happening on the ground,” he added. “But some of the initial reactions to polls versus exit polls, there’s a total discrepancy.

“I think that maybe the Biden campaign just got the warm, fuzzy feeling that the polls were going to be accurate this time.”

Booth cited support for Trump among Latino males, by black men and women, groups of people that have seen what this president can do, what he has unleashed in U.S. politics that has disproportionately affected them negatively, including COVID-19, which has killed more than 230,000 Americans.

“There’s something more fundamental here,” he said. “I think it really does speak to an inability of the electorate at large to cope with the reality that faces everybody.

“You’d think the coronavirus would have (politically) killed that guy (Trump) in the water, dead, right?” Booth said. “And yet he has managed to turn the whole thing into a team sport. You know, wear my jersey, everything’s fine and so he’s realized now he can basically say anything and his base will follow him, regardless.

“But all of those others — the moderates, the skeptics, the independents, the undecided, the ones who voted for him in 2016, but really don’t like what they see — there’s something very warm and comforting about the vision that he paints,” said Booth.

“And that vision is ‘don’t worry about it, right, stay on the team and all the rest of this stuff will go away. It’s us against them’. It’s not about morality, it’s not about right or wrong, it’s about whether you’re going to wear the team jersey or not.”

What also struck Booth was Trump’s strategy of having four rallies in Pennsylvania on Monday, the day before the election. He said that depending on how that math breaks, if Trump takes Georgia and North Carolina, and Biden takes Nevada and Arizona, then it could come down to those Rust Belt states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

“You’d have to feel pretty good about your chances if you’re a Trump supporter,” Booth said. “He’s been there four times in one day versus Biden, who’s born in Pennsylvania.”

But there are other reasons why America’s presidential election is a stalemate.

“I think it’s just this creeping inability of average Joes, people who sort of are tuned in but aren’t… they don’t want to have to sit down and pore over this stuff and talk about it. They just want a drink and a quick decision,” he said. “And Trump has as much said that (Tuesday) night. ‘It’s over, I won and let’s move on’.”

And if this dead heat isn’t troubling enough, what about Trump’s looming court challenge to the election results if he doesn’t win?

Booth says he has less fear for that because Trump would need hard evidence to make his case.

“Trump can do nothing if… in a perfect world, the votes all get counted and there’s no fraud, there’s no case to make, nobody found the 10,000 ballots in the garbage can. He has nothing to bring (to court),” he said.

But there’s also a possibility that this won’t matter.

“All he has to do is say it. If he says it, and the team hears him say ‘Hey, there’s been fraud,’ well, it’s a way more convenient way, first of all for him to avoid blame, but it’s also a way for him to say ‘Look, this is only reason I could have lost’,” Booth said.

Whatever its final result, the 2020 American election has shown the deep divide of its people.

“It really doesn’t matter, at the end of the day, who wins this,” Booth said. “I’m sad to say that polarization is alive and well. It’s not going away and I’d say it’s even worse.”

Electoral College at a glance

Americans voting for the next U.S. president — Trump or Biden — are actually casting ballots for a representative of that candidate’s party called an elector. These 538 electors then vote for president on behalf of people in their state.

A majority of 270 of these votes is required to win the American presidency.

The Electoral College almost always uses the winner-take-all system; candidates with the most votes in a state claim all of that state’s electoral votes. So winning California, which has 55 electoral votes, is more important than winning Hawaii, which has four.

Each American state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes based on their number of congressional districts, plus two additional votes representing their Senate seats. Washington, D.C., gets three electoral votes, despite having no voting representative in Congress (the House of Representatives and the Senate).

The House of Representatives has 435 members and elections every two years, including 2020.

The Senate has 100 members who serve six-year terms, with about one-third of them elected every two years. This year there are 35 Senate races this year.

Source: – OrilliaMatters

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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