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What is a 'circuit breaker' lockdown, and should Canada consider one? – CTV News

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4 years ago

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TORONTO —
“Circuit breaker,” “wave breaker,” “fire-break” — the terms vary, but the concept is similar: a relatively short COVID-19 lockdown with a set end date as opposed to an extended lockdown until cases drop past a certain point.

It’s a strategy several European countries have implemented or are preparing to, as numerous regions battle a rise in cases.

Wales is in the middle of a two-week fire-break, and has had businesses and schools closed since October 23, with a plan to reopen on November 9. Northern Ireland introduced increased restrictions on October 16, to be in place for four weeks. Germany introduced a partial shutdown Monday, and England is set to enter a four week lockdown on Thursday, which will be followed by a tiered system of restrictions.

But how do these smaller lockdowns differ from the measures seen at the start of the pandemic, and is it something Canada should consider?

WHAT IS IT?

According to Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, the idea has been around longer than terms like “circuit breaker,” which have popped up over the last few weeks.

He told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview that the general idea is “breaking the chain of transmission.”

Since the virus is transmitted directly from person to person, and those with the virus are generally thought to remain infectious for 14 days, theoretically, if no one in the country left their home for two weeks, transmission would simply stop, he said.

Of course, this thought experiment doesn’t capture the reality, he added. Even with tightened restrictions, people will still be moving about, and many will still have to work at essential jobs. The goal of a shorter circuit breaker lockdown is not an eradication of transmission, but a pause to hopefully allow cases to drop.

“You would continue to have new cases during that time because of prior exposure,” Furness said, adding that infections would also spread within households during the start of the lockdown, creating, potentially, a small boom of cases before the numbers began to drop off.

“It almost looks like a short-term rise and then a fall.”

HOW LONG IS A CIRCUIT BREAKER LOCKDOWN?

According to Furness, even a short lockdown would have to be longer than two weeks, which is the generally accepted stretch of time needed to self-isolate. Some people will contract COVID-19 from their household members maybe one or two days into a lockdown, he explained, so if the circuit breaker only lasted 14 days, those people could still be infectious at the end.

A lockdown of at least 18 days would be needed to drop cases down effectively, Furness said, adding that he would recommend 20 days for a short lockdown.

“That would bring us down from a 1,000 a day to maybe […] two, 300 a day. That might be achievable,” he said. “But you really need clear messaging for everyone that just said, this is it, we all have to row. We all have to do our bit.”

DOES IT WORK?

It depends on the metric of success — a strict lockdown of 20 days would not wipe out COVID-19.

“It won’t actually be an eradication or a real reset the way I think people imagine it,” Furness said.

But even a shorter lockdown would ease the pressure on contact tracers and allow them to catch up.

“It’s not just the number of cases that overwhelms contact tracers. It’s the fact that cases now have dozens and dozens of contacts instead of one or two or three,” Furness said. “If everyone’s in their house for two weeks and then someone gets sick, the contact tracing is very simple.”

It could allow countries to “regain control” of the situation, he said, including Canada, if it implemented such a strategy.

“We do not have control. We’re not using testing strategically, our resources are overwhelmed. Our hospitals are going to start to fill up,” he said. “We’re not in control.”

In Quebec, which has been the epicentre of the pandemic in Canada, deaths and hospitalizations are not rising at the same rate as cases. According to the most recent data, 13 people were admitted to hospital in the last day, for a total of 539. They added 1,029 new cases on Wednesday.  

A short lockdown is easier to sell to the public and wouldn’t hit businesses as hard, Furness added, but it requires discipline and clear communication from public officials, something he pointed out has been lacking in some regions.

“Our ability to convey clearly to people — certainly in Ontario — what’s expected and what’s needed, has been really poor,” he said. “So there’s a real hypothetical there to have effective communication to get the compliance for this to even work at all.”

Although short lockdowns have allowed some regions to regain their footing in the battle against COVID-19, some have changed their end dates as the time to cease the lockdown approached. Scotland planned a two-week circuit breaker, but extended the restrictions for a further week, then announced they would be transitioning into a five-level system of restrictions depending on different regions of Scotland.

The move led many to suggest circuit breaker lockdowns do not work, or that two weeks is insufficient.

Announcing a temporary lockdown with strict restrictions and a planned end date could backfire if the government extended restrictions after advertising it as temporary, Furness said.

If people are’t compliant with the lockdown — through poor communication from government officials for what is expected of them, or insufficient help from the government to allow people to stay home for 20 days — and cases don’t really drop, “you’ve lost the public,” Furness explained.

“You’re gambling with a snap […] circuit breaker, you’re gambling that you can actually do it effectively, because if you can’t, you’ll really have people’s wrath.”

IS A LOCKDOWN INEVITABLE?

However, Furness said he’d be surprised if Canada’s hot spot regions were not seeing lockdowns again by January — not because lockdowns are the only way to handle rising cases, but because he believes we’ve failed at the other way to control a pandemic: aggressive testing.

“If you look at different countries’ approaches, there’s two ways that you can interrupt a pandemic or a big outbreak,” he said. “One is through lockdowns and the other one is through testing.

“In other words, we could test our way out of this.”

But as the second wave has hit Canada, testing rates have not gone up — in fact, the opposite has occurred in Ontario, one of the hardest hit provinces. Only 25,279 tests were performed on Monday, around half of what the province is capable of processing, while 1,050 new cases of COVID-19 were recorded.

Furness said that we have not been using testing proactively in a way that would help to control the virus. If testing had been deployed to test those at risk when lockdown restrictions were easing, we would have a better picture of where transmission is occurring.

Because it’s not just that case numbers are increasing. The percentage of new cases with no known epidemiological source — meaning it’s unknown how and where the person contracted the virus — is growing. According to data tracked by Public Health Ontario, cases with no known source now regularly make up more than a third of new daily cases.

“When we opened schools, it should have come with a plan to test teachers every week,” Furness said. “When we opened bars and restaurants, it should’ve come with a plan to test waiters and bartenders every single week. In other words, you can do these risky measures if you’re actually on top of it and grabbing cases.

“We’re not deploying testing at all now in the second wave in any way to try and slow transmission. That is a horrible mistake. And we’re going to have to lock down because of it. But we’re choosing that, we’re choosing to hurdle toward the need for a lockdown.”

If it does come to more lockdowns in Canada to control the areas where cases are currently rising, Furness believes those lockdowns will need to be severe, no matter how long they are. In March and April, he pointed out, stores that sold “anything remotely edible,” were able to remain open. At the next lockdown, this may not be the case.

“I think pretty much everything locked down except grocery stores, drug stores and arguably liquor stores, and obviously hospitals and public safety services,” he said. “We’re really going to have to clamp down on that. Really, no cake shops, no bakeries, no convenience stores.”

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My Boy Prince to race against older horses in $1-million Woodbine Mile

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50 mins ago

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September 13, 2024

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TORONTO – He’s firmly among Canada’s top three-year-olds but My Boy Prince faces a stiff test Saturday at Woodbine Racetrack.

The ’24 King’s Plate runner-up will be part of a global field in the $1-million Woodbine Mile turf event. Not only will it be My Boy Prince’s first race against older competition but among the seven other starters will be such horses as Naval Power (Great Britain), Big Rock (France) and Filo Di Arianna (Brazil).

My Boy Prince will race for the first time since finishing second to filly Caitlinhergrtness in the Plate on Aug. 23.

“It’s his first try against older horses and it’s hard to say where he fits in,” said trainer Mark Casse. “This time of year running a three-year-old against older horses, it’s like running a teenager against college athletes.

“We’re doing it because we believe a mile on the turf is his preferred surface … we wanted to give him a shot at this. (American owner Gary Barber) is someone who likes to think outside the box and take calculated risks so we’re going to see where he fits in.”

Casse, 16 times Canada’s top trainer, is a Hall of Famer both here and in the U.S. He’s also a two-time Woodbine Mile winner with filly Tepin (2016) and World Approval (2017).

Sahin Civaci will again ride My Boy Prince, Canada’s top two-year-old male who has six wins and 10 money finishes (6-3-1) in 11 career starts. The horse will be one of three Casse trainees in the race with Filo Di Arianna (ridden by Sovereign Award winner Kazushi Kimura) and Win for the Money (veteran Woodbine jockey Patrick Husbands aboard).

Naval Power, a four-year-old, has finished in the money in eight of nine starts (six wins, twice second) and will race in Canada for the first time. He comes to Woodbine with second-place finishes in two Grade 1 turf races.

Big Rock, another four-year-old, makes his North American debut Saturday. The horse has five wins and five second-place finishes in 14 starts but has struggled in ’24, finishing sixth, 10th and fifth in three races.

Filo Di Arianna is a four-time graded stakes winner with nine victories, three seconds and a third from 17 starts. It was Canada’s ’22 top male sprinter and champion male turf horse.

Other starters include Playmea Tune, Niagara Skyline and Secret Reserve.

Playmea Tune, a four-year-old, is trained by Josie Carrol. The gelding has made three starts, winning twice and finishing second in the Grade 3 Bold Venture on Aug. 23.

Woodbine-based Niagara Skyline is a six-year-old with 13 money finishes (six wins, five seconds, twice third) in 24-lifetime starts. The John Charlambous trainee has reached the podium (1-1-1) in all three races this year.

Secret Reserve, also a six-year-old, has finished in the money in 15-of-26 starts (six wins, one second, eight thirds). The horse, at 44-1, was third in the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes over a mile on the E.P. Taylor turf course.

The Mile highlights a stellar card featuring six graded stakes races. Also on tap are the $750,000 E.P. Taylor Stakes (fillies and mares), $500,000 bet365 Summer Stakes (two-year-olds) and $500,000 Johnnie Walker Natalma Stakes (two-year-old fillies), all Grade 1 turf events.

The Mile, Natalma and Summer winners earn automatic entries into the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar in November.

Casse has won all four races, earning his first E.P. Taylor title last year with filly Fev Rover, Canada’s horse of the year and champion female turf horse. Fev Rover will defend her title Saturday against a field that includes Moira, the ’22 King’s Plate winner and Canada’s horse of the year trained by Woodbine’s Kevin Attard.

“It (E.P. Taylor) was definitely on my bucket list because it had eluded us,” Casse said. “But I honestly hadn’t realized I’d won all four of them, hadn’t really thought about it.”

Casse will have horses in all four turf races Saturday. Arguably the most intriguing matchup will be between Moira and Fev Rover, who ran 1-2, respectively, in a photo finish Aug. 11 in the Grade 2 Beverly D. Stakes, a 1 3/16-mile turf race, at Virginia’s Colonial Downs.

“What’s funny is the two of them went all the way to Virginia and she beat us by a nose,” Casse said. “We could’ve done that at Woodbine.

“There’s two of the best fillies in the world both from Toronto and they’re going to be competing Saturday.”

Some question having so many solid races on a single card but Casse likes the strategy.

“I think it’s a good thing,” he said. “On Saturday, the main focus on horse racing in the world will be on Woodbine and that’s because it’s such a great card.

“It’s an international day, there’s horses coming from everywhere and we’re going to do our best to represent Canada.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.



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Former world No. 1 Sharapova wins fan vote for International Tennis Hall of Fame

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September 13, 2024

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NEWPORT, R.I. (AP) — Maria Sharapova, a five-time Grand Slam singles champion, led the International Tennis Hall of Fame’s fan vote her first year on the ballot — an important part to possible selection to the hall’s next class.

The organization released the voting results Friday. American doubles team Bob and Mike Bryan finished second with Canada’s Daniel Nestor third.

The Hall of Fame said tens of thousands of fans from 120 countries cast ballots. Fan voting is one of two steps in the hall’s selection process. The second is an official group of journalists, historians, and Hall of Famers from the sport who vote on the ballot for the hall’s class of 2025.

“I am incredibly grateful to the fans all around the world who supported me during the International Tennis Hall of Fame’s fan votes,” Sharapova said in a statement. “It is a tremendous honor to be considered for the Hall of Fame, and having the fans’ support makes it all the more special.”

Sharapova became the first Russian woman to reach No. 1 in the world. She won Wimbledon in 2004, the U.S. Open in 2006 and the Australian Open in 2008. She also won the French Open twice, in 2012 and 2014.

Sharapova was also part of Russia’s championship Fed Cup team in 2008 and won a silver medal at the London Olympics in 2012.

To make the hall, candidates must receive 75% or higher on combined results of the official voting group and additional percentage from the fan vote. Sharapova will have an additional three percentage points from winning the fan vote.

The Bryans, who won 16 Grand Slam doubles titles, will have two additional percentage points and Nestor, who won eight Grand Slam doubles titles, will get one extra percentage point.

The hall’s next class will be announced late next month.

___

AP tennis:

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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1 hour ago

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September 13, 2024

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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