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China's yuan has its worst fall in years before recovering on US election swings – CNN

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China’s yuan briefly plunged as much as 1.4% against the US dollar on Wednesday when early results showed Trump in a competitive race with former Vice President Joe Biden, who had been favored to capture the White House.
The drop in the offshore yuan, where the currency is traded more freely, was the largest single-day percentage drop since February 2018, according to Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist for Axi.
The offshore yuan later pared losses as more votes were counted, and was last down just 0.3%, at about 6.7 yuan per US dollar. The more tightly controlled onshore yuan dropped 0.2% after falling more than 1% in Shanghai.
“Currency markets seem to be voting with their feet,” wrote analysts at Barclays. “When it seemed like the president was winning easily, currencies like the [yuan] and the [Mexican peso] sold off overnight. But both are now rallying early morning and …. the yuan has taken back most of its overnight losses.”
The Chinese currency could remain sensitive to the election results.
“In light of China-US tensions, the [renminbi] market movement hinges on the US election outcome,” said Ken Cheung, chief foreign exchange strategist for Asia at Mizuho Bank. He wrote in a research note Wednesday that should Trump secure reelection, that would suggest “the extension of America First agenda and protectionism policy.”
The US election wasn’t the only factor that rattled the Chinese currency. Chinese officials have also just brought Ant Group’s record-breaking IPO to a stunning halt. That increases uncertainty surrounding Chinese investment, according to Lorraine Tan, director of Asia equity research at Morningstar. Stocks in the region were muted, too, with the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) rising 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) shedding 0.2%.
Another Trump term could inject new tension into US-China relations, which have been growing more bitter year by year. What started as a trade war has morphed into a broader conflict over technology and national security.
The yuan had been surging against the greenback in recent months as China’s economy recovered from the coronavirus pandemic more quickly than other major nations, and as investors began preparing for a possible Biden win. The currency’s rapid appreciation even prompted the People’s Bank of China to tweak some rules last month in an attempt to slow the rise in value.
“Trump’s victory could reignite the trade war risk,” Cheung said, adding that the return of tariffs could pressure the yuan again. The February 2018 drop came as US-China tensions escalated, and the currency weakened at points last year as the trade war dragged on.
While some market analysts suspected that a Trump victory could bring with it an even more hawkish US stance toward China, economists have pointed out that any US president would take a robust approach with Beijing.
Analysts at JP Morgan wrote in a note last month that even if Biden wins the election, they expect the relationship between Washington and Beijing to continue splintering as the two countries fight over 5G networks, quantum computing, artificial intelligence and biotechnology.
Terence Wu, a foreign exchange strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, said that the currency would likely be driven by factors other than the election, such as whether China’s economic recovery can remain on track.
“With the pandemic management still the main issue globally, trade frictions may be sidelined for now,” he said.
— Charles Riley contributed to this article.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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