OTTAWA —
Nearly one-quarter of Canada’s unemployed have been without work for six months or more, with Statistics Canada reporting a spike in their numbers in October even as the economy eked out another month of overall job growth.
Nearly 450,000 were considered long-term unemployed last month, meaning they had been without a job for 27 weeks or more, with their ranks swelling by 79,000 in September and then 151,000 more in October.
Long-term unemployed now make up 24.8 per cent of Canada’s unemployed, who numbered 1.8 million in October, as the wave of short-term layoffs in March in April rippled into the fall.
The jumps in September and October are the sharpest over more than 40 years of comparable data, and have pushed long-term unemployment beyond what it was just over a decade ago during the global financial crisis.
More men than women have been out of work for an extended period, and younger workers make up a larger share of the ranks of the country’s long-term unemployed than they did in the last recession.
“As the pandemic lingers, and vulnerable sectors like food services continue to struggle, it’s really going to be tough to get back to normal,” said Brendon Bernard, an economist with job-posting site Indeed.
“And in the meantime, that’s going to mean definitely struggles for people who’ve been working in parts of the economy that are severely affected.”
The longer those people are out of work, the more difficult it will be for them to find a new job. And for those that do, research has shown a drop in their earnings as they settle for less than they had before.
Some older workers may simply decide to retire. Younger low-wage workers in hard-hit service sectors will have to find new work as part of a reshuffling of the workforce that could take years to play out.
Leah Nord, senior director of workforce strategies for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said the numbers show governments need to roll out “significant” skills training programs to those affected workers pivot to new careers.
The pace of job growth slowed in October as the economy added 83,600 jobs in the month compared with 378,000 in September, Statistics Canada said Friday. The gains marked the sixth straight month of gains after three million jobs lost over March and April when the pandemic first hit Canada hard.
The unemployment rate was little changed at 8.9 per cent compared with nine per cent in September.
The overall gains were the smallest since economies were allowed to reopen after lockdowns, noted TD senior economist Sri Thanabalasingam.
Job increases were found across several industries, including retail.
Most of the gains too were in full-time work, with core-aged women benefiting the most to bring their unemployment rate to 6.6 per cent, the lowest among the major demographic groups tracked by Statistics Canada.
But those gains were partially offset by a decrease of 48,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services industry, largely in Quebec, Statistics Canada says.
More Canadians were also working at home in October, coinciding with a rise in case counts of COVID-19.
CIBC senior economist Royce Mendes says the fact the economy posted another gain in October was good news.
“It seems like employment readings are destined to ebb and flow over the coming fall and winter months, as governments try to adjust activity in attempts to contain the virus,” he writes in a note.
Statistics Canada says the unemployment rate would have been 11.3 per cent in October had it included in calculations the 540,000 Canadians who wanted to work last month but didn’t search for a job.
A quick look at Canada’s October employment (numbers from the previous month in brackets):
Unemployment rate: 8.9 per cent (9.0)
Employment rate: 59.4 per cent (59.1)
Participation rate: 65.2 per cent (65.0)
Number unemployed: 1,816,800 (1,832,600)
Number working: 18,553,500 (18,469,900)
Youth (15-24 years) unemployment rate: 18.8 per cent (18.9)
Men (25 plus) unemployment rate: 7.8 per cent (7.8)
Women (25 plus) unemployment rate: 6.8 per cent (7.0)
Here are the jobless rates last month by province (numbers from the previous month in brackets):
Newfoundland and Labrador 12.8 per cent (14.8)
Prince Edward Island 10.0 per cent (10.1)
Nova Scotia 8.7 per cent (7.9)
New Brunswick 10.1 per cent (10.4)
Quebec 7.7 per cent (7.4)
Ontario 9.6 per cent (9.5)
Manitoba 7.1 per cent (7.0)
Saskatchewan 6.4 per cent (6.8)
Alberta 10.7 per cent (11.7)
British Columbia 8.0 per cent (8.4)
Statistics Canada also released seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average unemployment rates for major cities. It cautions, however, that the figures may fluctuate widely because they are based on small statistical samples. Here are the jobless rates last month by city (numbers from the previous month in brackets):
St. John’s, N.L. 8.8 per cent (9.8)
Halifax 7.7 per cent (8.4)
Moncton, N.B. 8.3 per cent (7.1)
Saint John, N.B. 10.0 per cent (10.1)
Saguenay, Que. 5.0 per cent (5.4)
Quebec City 4.5 per cent (5.0)
Sherbrooke, Que. 7.0 per cent (7.4)
Trois-Rivieres, Que. 6.0 per cent (6.3)
Montreal 9.6 per cent (10.7)
Gatineau, Que. 7.9 per cent (8.1)
Ottawa 8.2 per cent (8.7)
Kingston, Ont. 8.5 per cent (9.1)
Peterborough, Ont. 11.7 per cent (11.2)
Oshawa, Ont. 8.3 per cent (9.6)
Toronto 11.5 per cent (12.8)
Hamilton, Ont. 9.2 per cent (8.9)
St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont. 7.5 per cent (8.7)
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Ont. 10.8 per cent (12.2)
Brantford, Ont. 7.2 per cent (8.1)
Guelph, Ont. 8.3 per cent (9.6)
London, Ont. 8.9 per cent (8.9)
Windsor, Ont. 10.8 per cent (9.8)
Barrie, Ont. 9.2 per cent (9.4)
Greater Sudbury, Ont. 7.9 per cent (8.5)
Thunder Bay, Ont. 7.6 per cent (8.3)
Winnipeg 8.7 per cent (9.4)
Regina 6.1 per cent (7.4)
Saskatoon 8.1 per cent (9.2)
Calgary 11.3 per cent (12.6)
Edmonton 12.0 per cent (12.6)
Kelowna, B.C. 6.2 per cent (8.0)
Abbotsford-Mission, B.C. 8.6 per cent (8.0)
Vancouver 9.7 per cent (11.1)
Victoria 7.6 per cent (9.1)
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2020.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.
The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.
The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.
Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.
Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.
In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.
“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.
Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.
But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.
Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.
“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.
“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.
A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.
It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.
More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.
“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.
In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.
“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
