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Trump touted the economy; the economy voted for Biden – Reuters Canada

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump leaned on economic arguments in his reelection bid. The economy favored Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

FILE PHOTO: A combination picture shows U.S. President Donald Trump pumping his fist during a campaign event at Capital Region International Airport in Lansing, Michigan, U.S. October 27, 2020, and Democratic U.S. presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden making a fist during a drive-in campaign stop in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., October 30, 2020. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/Brian Snyder/File Photos

President-elect Biden won in counties accounting for 70% of the country’s economic output, and also in places that were generally doing better under the Republican incumbent than was “Trump country,” according to an analysis of the Nov. 3 election results released by the Brookings Institution on Tuesday.

The study showed Biden’s unweighted gross domestic product share was higher even than Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s 64% in 2016, after he flipped the electoral results in populous places like Maricopa County in Arizona and Tarrant County in Texas that had favored Trump four years ago.

Trump’s share fell correspondingly.

GRAPHIC: U.S. economic output is urban — and “Blue” –

In one sense the result is not surprising: GDP follows population, and, just as the Republican base is concentrated in thousands of less populated counties across the country’s mid-section, the Democratic base is centered in the more populated cities and particularly East and West Coast metropolises like Los Angeles, New York and Atlanta, which was key to Biden’s apparent win in Georgia.

Those cities are where the country’s most productive workers and companies are based, even if Trump, despite his focus on the economy, has portrayed them as uniformly troubled rather than the foundation of U.S. wealth.

Mark Muro, senior fellow at Brookings’ Metropolitan Policy Program, said that even as the results reflect demographic trends underway for decades, the resulting political division remains unresolved – even on pressing current issues like coronavirus pandemic aid to cities.

The Republican Party “reflects an economic base situated in the nation’s struggling small towns and rural areas, remains frustrated, and sees no reason to consider the priorities and needs of the nation’s metropolitan centers,” Muro said. “That is not a scenario for economic consensus or achievement.”

Of course, even in Democratic strongholds, Trump got votes. While Vermont remains deeply blue-based in terms of vote share and Wyoming a deep red, much of the country blends more toward the middle, and the 2020 election showed the group of competitive states widening from traditional battlegrounds like Florida and the Midwest to include Sun Belt states like Georgia and Arizona.

GRAPHIC: “No blue states and red states…” –

However, in Trump’s case the results may follow other logic. Analysis of the results showed he faced little blowback from voters in places that supported him in 2016 and which have been hit hardest by the coronavirus. Indeed, his vote share often increased in those places.

But neither was he necessarily rewarded for the strength of the economy before the pandemic.

According to a new analysis by the Economic Innovation Group, the counties that voted for Biden also enjoyed wage, job and business growth under the Trump administration greater than the counties that voted for Trump.

GRAPHIC: Job, establishment and wage growth –

Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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