ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Analysts expect the Turkish economy to grow around 3% this year and next, according to a Reuters poll issued on Thursday, well shy of a government forecast as it recovers from a recession that left economic activity treading water last year.
The economy, which contracted year-on-year in three consecutive quarters to mid-2019, is likely to have logged a slight expansion of 0.2% for all of last year, going by the median estimate in the poll.
A previous poll in October predicted a contraction of 0.3% for 2019, after a bruising currency crisis in 2018.
Ankara has set an ambitious target of 5% growth for both 2020 and 2021 and has urged the central bank to lower its policy rate, which stands at 12% after aggressive easing since July, to help the recovery along.
The median estimate in the Reuters poll of 52 economists was for 2.8% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2020, and 3% GDP growth in 2021, largely in line with the October poll.
The forecasts for this year ranged between economic expansions of 1.4% and 4.6%.
“The indicators do not point to a marked decline in the Turkish economy in the final quarter of 2019. We rather expect very weak but positive growth,” Germany’s DZ Bank said in a recent note.
“The economy … will continue on its course of recovery (in 2020), but with little momentum,” added the bank, which expects below-consensus growth for this year and next, due in part to political risk factors.
Turkish economic growth has averaged around 5% over the last two decades. But the 2018 crisis cut the Turkish lira’s value by nearly 30%, sent inflation soaring and severely crimped imports.
The poll predicted that inflation, which stood at 11.84% in December after hitting a 15-year high of more than 25% in October 2018, would ease further.
The median projection from 15 economists had annual inflation falling to 9.5% and 9% in 2020 and 2021 respectively.
Their consensus forecast was that the central bank would trim its policy rate to 11.5% by the end of the first quarter of 2020, and to 10.25% by year’s end.(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package: )
(Polling by Sarmista Sen and Indradip Ghosh; Writing by Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Kevin Liffey)
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
