PARIS (Reuters) – Lockdowns in France and Italy are weighing down public mobility more than in other European countries, according to high- frequency data compiled by Reuters that suggest the two economies will take a correspondingly bigger hit.
Data ranging from use of Apple maps apps to Google’s user location history are proving vital tools for governments, central bankers and investors trying to gauge the economic impact of restrictions, weeks in advance of conventional indicators like consumer spending or industrial output.
The French official stats agency INSEE has found that the data Google can collect on how much time people spend at home is particularly closely correlated with how much an economy has slowed during the crisis.
And while the impact is nowhere near as pronounced as during the first set of more draconian lockdowns this year, that data suggest that people in France, Italy and Britain are currently seeing the biggest increases in the time spent at home.
Paris and Milan have also seen the sharpest reductions in traffic congestion, and Italy the steepest decline in public transport usage, ahead of the Netherlands, UK and France.
Graphic: Time spent at home in Europe’s biggest economies – https://graphics.reuters.com/EUROPE-ECONOMY/yzdvxkaojpx/chart.png
Germany’s “lockdown lite” imposed on Nov. 2 has left indicators of activity holding up much better than in countries that have gone for tougher measures, such as closing all but essential shops and services.
Spain was among the hardest hit in the first wave, but its activity also appears be resisting better after it imposed a six-month state of emergency at the end of October, giving its regions legal backing to implement curfews and restrict travel.
Graphic: Changes in traffic congestion in European capitals – https://graphics.reuters.com/EUROPE-ECONOMY/nmopadyglva/chart.png
Overall, countries are seeing less of a blow to activity than in the first wave of lockdowns after governments calibrated restrictions this time to limit the economic fallout. For comparison, mobility is around the same levels as seen in May.
In a case in point, France has seen a sharp fall in activity since the government was one of the first in Europe to put the country back under a full lockdown on Oct. 30.
However, the drop is not as dire as in March and April with the new French lockdown allowing considerably more flexibility for companies and schools left open.
Graphic: Apple mobility trends in public transport – https://graphics.reuters.com/EUROPE-ECONOMY/jznpnnjolpl/chart.png
Other real-time indicators like electricity consumption also show little impact from the new wave of restrictions across Europe, although colder weather is also fuelling demand heading into the winter.
Meanwhile, governments have largely spared their industrial sectors under the new restrictions, as the service sector bears the brunt of the fallout.
The German official stats agency’s truck toll mileage index https://www.destatis.de/EN/Service/EXDAT/Datensaetze/truck-toll-mileage.html, which it says is a bellwether for industrial production in Europe’s biggest economy, is currently running at levels on par with those seen before the coronavirus crisis broke out.
While overall economic activity has cooled once again heading into the year end, some traditional indicators of economic health such as unemployment and bankruptcy filings are still not flashing red.
But that is likely to be because of government support measures like subsidised furlough schemes and state-guaranteed bank loans to companies are keeping consumers and businesses afloat – at least for now.
(Reporting by Leigh Thomas; editing by Mark John, Larry King)
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
