TORONTO —
Though all eyes are on a potential COVID-19 vaccine, experts still warn that the pandemic could worsen before most Canadians are innoculated.
The continued alarm bells, which health officials have been ringing for months, are based off pandemic modelling done by epidemiologists at the Public Health Agency of Canada, who use a mathematical growth model to formulate their projections.
Ten times since April, the federal government has released epidemiological updates on the state of the pandemic. Each update included a short-term forecast of the infection trajectory in the country. More recently, there have also beenlonger-term predictions. CTVNews.ca pulled the numbers to see how the projections compared to the reality on the day in question.
Almost all of the estimates have turned out to be accurate, most often on the higher end of the projected range. Lately, the projections have hinted at a grim course for the pandemic, the Public Health Agency of Canada said in a statement Monday.
“[I]n recent weeks the actual numbers have been greater than the projected numbers, and this indicates that the epidemic is accelerating,” an agency spokesperson wrote in an email to CTVNews.ca.
“Now, more than ever, everyone needs to keep up with public health practices—including physical distancing, handwashing and wearing masks—to reduce their risk of being infected and to reduce the risk of spreading the virus to others.”
In early October and early November, as the second wave of COVID-19 intensified, the projections turned out to be lowballing the course of the pandemic by several thousand cases. Death projections missed the mark four times, first in May and most recently at the end of November. Only in June, as the first wave of the pandemic dropped to a seven-day average of fewer than 800 new cases, were the projections on the lower end of the estimated window.
While the government has stuck to shorter-term projections, it began making longer-term estimates in the fall. In late September, PHAC estimated Canada could exceed 3,000 new infections each day by mid-October. That estimate didn’t play out. By mid-October, health officials logged below 2,500 cases most days,with a seven-day average of about 2,300. Similarly, the agency said cases could exceed 5,000 a day by November,but officials recorded a seven-day average around 3,000 in early November.
Those longer-term forecasts were based on Canadians keeping the same rate of contacts. The agency also provided two other predictions: one in which contacts increased by 20 per cent, and one in which they decreased by 25 per cent. The pandemic has neither spiked or waned in the way projected by those forecasts.
But the long-term estimate for December proved most accurate. On Oct. 30, PHAC estimated that the country could exceed 6,000 daily cases by early December if Canadians maintained their level of contacts. So far this month, officials have recorded more than 6,200 new infections every day,with the exception of Dec. 1 when the country logged 5,330 new cases.
This month, PHAC estimated that Canada could exceed 15,000 reported infections daily by mid-December and 20,000 by the end of the month when people typically gather for the holiday season. In recent days, officials have emphatically discouraged people from gathering with anyone outside their own household for Christmas or other celebrations.
The projections go hand-in-hand with public health advice such as lockdowns and physical distancing, because they aren’t weather forecasts, says Ashleigh Tuite, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health. Canadians can affect the pandemic currents.
HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IS THE ‘X’ FACTOR
“If the weather forecast is for rain, that forecast doesn’t change if you take an umbrella with you,” Tuite told CTVNews.ca over the phone earlier this month. “But for infectious diseases, if I tell you that there is going to be a large increase in cases, and you take that information and change your behaviour — you decide not to leave the house, or when you leave the house, you take your mask with you — that actually affects the future.”
While the shorter-term forecasts are less likely to miss the mark, said Tuite, it’s a good thing when projections are wrong, especially in a pandemic when the caseload reality is lower than the prediction.
“That suggests that human behaviour or something else has changed that forecast or potential future,” said Tuite.
Human behaviour is the “X factor,” the piece of the equation that is unknown or unforeseeable, she added, making longer-term projections a particular challenge. Human behaviour won’t have much impact on shorter-term projections that fall within a two-week range or less, because public health interventions typically take at least two weeks to affect the epidemic curve, she said.
That means that even the 20,000 cases per day projected for the end of December may not be the maximum. If holiday gatherings occur, despite authorities’ warnings against them, it will be well into January before infections passed on at those events make their presence felt in the daily totals. On the other hand, if Canadians cut down on their contacts, the situation could rapidly improve.
“We have the ability to change our future, and models are part of that to help people understand where we’re headed and how we can change,” said Tuite. “They’re not inevitable.”
Human behaviour is simply challenging to predict, particularly in such unprecedented times.
“People’s attitudes and risk aversion [have]changed over time,” she said, noting that she couldn’t have predicted in March or April how a sense of “COVID fatigue” would have played into adherence to health protocols. “Those are all things that are going to be captured in terms of the disease dynamic and in terms of the number of cases that we see, but trying to predict that or anticipate that can be really hard.”
HOUSTON (AP) — Brian White scored in the second half to rally the Vancouver Whitecaps to a 1-1 draw with the Houston Dynamo on Wednesday night.
Houston (12-9-8) took a 1-0 lead into halftime after Ezequiel Ponce scored on a penalty kick in the seventh minute of stoppage time. Ponce’s third goal this season came after Amine Bassi drew a foul on Whitecaps midfielder Pedro Vite following a video review. It was Ponce’s sixth career appearance, all starts.
Vancouver (13-8-7) scored the equalizer in the 73rd minute when White, who entered in the 60th, used assists from Fafá Picault and Ryan Gauld to find the net for the 13th time this season. Picault’s assist was his fifth, matching his career high for a single season. Gauld’s assist gives him a career-best 13 on the season.
Yohei Takaoka, who had clean sheets in his last three starts, finished with one save in goal for the Whitecaps.
Steve Clark saved three shots for the Dynamo, who remain one point behind Vancouver in the Western Conference standings.
Houston, which was coming off a 4-1 victory over Real Salt Lake, has allowed just 33 goals this season.
Vancouver — 6-2-2 in its last 10 matches overall — leads the all-time series 10-9-6.
The Whitecaps remain on the road to play the Los Angeles Galaxy on Saturday. The Dynamo travel to play Austin FC on Saturday.
FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) — Tom Pearce and Nathan Saliba scored in the second half — the first goals of their careers — and CF Montreal rallied for a 2-2 draw with the New England Revolution on Wednesday night.
“In the second half, the guys came out a little more ambitious and above all, more connected,” Montreal head coach Laurent Courtois said. “It was a great second half of resilience and fighting spirit. Nathan and Sam were impressive.
“Impressive in covering the gaps and compensating for the teammates, and the individual defending – yes it’s true, it is a lot of weight on their shoulders, but that’s the job.”
New England (8-16-4) jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the 24th minute on Bobby Wood’s third goal of the season. Teenage defender Peyton Miller notched his first assist in his fourth career start and sixth appearance and Carles Gil picked up his ninth of the season. Peyton, at 16 years, 315 days old, is the eighth youngest player in league history to record his first assist.
The Revolution took a two-goal lead in the 35th minute and held it through halftime when 19-year-old Esmir Bajraktarevic took a pass from Gil and scored his third goal of the season and career in his first full season in the league. It was the 73rd regular-season assist in Gil’s career, tying him with Steve Ralston for the most in club history.
Montreal (7-12-10) pulled within a goal in the 54th minute when Pearce scored off a free kick after defender George Campbell drew a foul on New England’s Mark-Anthony Kaye. It was the first goal for Pearce in his third career start and fourth appearance.
“Playoffs are the goal. Maybe it wasn’t in the best form, but in the end, we are picking up a point,” Pearce said. “We came into this game confident, ready to play our own game. Everyone tries their best, whenever the players are called on, we are always ready, and we are always giving it our best.”
Montreal scored the equalizer in the 68th minute on the first career goal by Saliba, a 20-year-old midfielder. Saliba has made 34 starts and 48 appearances with Montreal in his two seasons in the league. Campbell snagged his second assist of the season and the third of his career.
“It’s an incredible feeling, it’s a goal I’ve been waiting for a long time. I’m extremely happy that I was able to score it and that it can help the team take this important point on the road,” Saliba said. “Pearce’s first goal gave us really good momentum and we kept up the pressure to go for a second goal. We got more solid defensively, and we came back ready after halftime, to push for these 3 points.”
Aljaz Ivacic finished with four saves in goal for the Revolution.
Jonathan Sirois stopped four shots for Montreal.
New England beat Montreal 5-0 on the road on Aug. 24.
New England leads the all-time series 16-13-4. Montreal improves to 5-8-2 on the road against the Revs.
The Revolution travel to take on Charlotte FC on Saturday. Montreal returns home to host the Chicago Fire on Saturday.
ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) — Adolis García hit a two-run home run in the sixth inning, Cody Bradford pitched seven strong innings after the worst start of his career, and the Texas Rangers beat the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 on Wednesday night.
The win kept the defending World Series-champion Rangers alive in the AL West race, trailing first-place Houston by 10 games with 10 to play.
García launched an inside sinker over the left-field wall off Toronto starter Bowden Francis (8-5) after Wyatt Langford singled.
“He swings hard, he swings a lot,” Francis said of García. “I guess the velo was dropping during that time.”
Bradford (6-3) allowed five hits and no walks while striking out six.
The seven shutout innings are the most in a game during his two-year career. He was knocked out of his previous start after allowing career highs in hits (nine), runs (eight) and homers (three) in 3 2/3 innings in a 14-4 loss at Arizona.
“Throughout the week, you’ve got to try and digest what happened, see where I can make adjustments, whether it was just game plan went wrong or just poor execution, or a little bit of both,” Bradford said. “Then you flush it.”
Bradford was perfect through four innings before Alejandro Kirk opened the fifth with a smash back to the mound that caromed off Bradford’s left foot and rolled into right field for a single. It extended Kirk’s hitting streak to a career-high 12 games.
Spencer Horwitz’s double to left-center put runners on second and third with no outs before Bradford retired the next three batters.
Blue Jays manager John Schneider credited Bradford’s “deceptive fastball.”
“When you’re throwing 89, 92, you’ve got to have pretty good deception with that at this level,” Schneider said. “Kept us off balance.”
Kirby Yates pitched a perfect ninth inning for his 31st save in 32 opportunities.
Francis, who took no-hitters into the ninth inning in two of his previous four starts, allowed a double to Marcus Semien, the Rangers’ first hitter of the game. He gave up five hits and one walk in six innings.
Francis has a 1.96 ERA in nine starts with 54 strikeouts and seven walks since being moved back into the starting rotation in late July.
“I don’t even want to get complacent, on cruise control,” Francis said. “Just keep attacking.”
TRAINER’S ROOM
Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette was a late scratch with a right middle finger contusion suffered during infield practice. Schneider said the team will get back x-rays on Thursday. Bichette was activated Tuesday following a calf injury and played for the first time in two months, going 2 for 5 with one RBI at the plate. … INF Will Wagner (left knee inflammation) will have the knee scoped on Thursday. Schneider said Wagner should be ready to start spring training. Wagner, son of former major leaguer Billy Wagner, was acquired from Houston at the trade deadline.
UP NEXT
Rangers rookie RHP Kumar Rocker (0-0, 2.25 ERA) will make his home debut against Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gausman (12-11, 4.02) in the series finale. Rocker allowed one run in four innings at Seattle last Thursday in his major league debut.
