The recovery is an opportunity to realign real estate value with human experience.
People have a choice – stay home or go out. As choice drives re-occupancy, people-focused real estate will rise in value.
Such places can see more consistent returns, while less human-centric places may not.
As the post-pandemic world begins to emerge and people seek experiences outside of their homes, it is becoming clear the pre-pandemic real-estate industry may have gone too far in how it valued real estate that was not fully conceived around people. Clearly, how buildings and places are designed to value human experience will be an important part of the equation as we enter a new era.
Places are essential for life. When we vacated many places due to the pandemic, we also lost the experiences that go with those places. Today, because of the pandemic, our understanding of the relationship between the experiences and the places we value is sharper than ever before.
The human need for movement, spontaneity, interaction, variety and other experiences hardwired into us as hunter-gatherers is only possible when we have access to multiple places and settings. During confinement, living in a “mono-place” satisfied health and safety requirements, but the cost in terms of quality of life have been severe. We need a “multi-place” life to be fully human, and real estate is critical to meeting that. Looked at that way, real estate post-pandemic has more value than current valuation models allow. This realization could reshape the way we design our workplaces, hotels, retail, schools and cities.
Mixed-use developments, town centres and a growing focus on place-making and community have increased over the past two decades. However, in the post-pandemic recovery, choice – the potential to provide different experiences – will be the driver, not prior patterns. Stay in or go out? Real estate’s new source of value is that it is the platform outside of the home for experiences beyond the virtual.
Real-estate values have been on a roller-coaster ride over the past nine months, because the answer to these questions is still emerging. Three recent studies by the Gensler Research Institute shed light on the fundamental relationship between human experience and real estate.
Work in the right place
In April and September 2020, the institute studied responses from over 2,300 workers across the US to understand their experience working from home (WFH) during the pandemic. While tasks and basic functionality were effective in a WFH arrangement, most people want to return to the office because of the benefits that proximity to others brings to their work.
According to the institute’s research, only 12% of respondents want to work from home 100% of the time, with 44% preferring a hybrid arrangement that allows flexibility to work one to four days per week at home. The study also found that 88% want the office to be part of their weekly work experience.
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Only 12% of workers want to remain at home all the time
Image: Gensler
Retail is more than the goods
In its ongoing work in understanding the relationship between experience and place, the institute developed the Gensler Experience Index. Through surveys and ethnographic studies, research demonstrated that places, including retail shops, restaurants and other destinations, are successful when providing a broad set of experiences beyond the transaction, task or service they provide.
Since 51% of shopping motivation is the opportunity for entertainment, socializing, learning and inspiration, in the post-pandemic environment, the value of retail real estate will be elevated if it offers a range of engagement experiences beyond consumer transactions. Online shopping is here to stay, but having more than one retail option is critical for the post-pandemic consumer.
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Buying something is not the only reason why people go out shopping.
Image: Gensler
The 20-minute neighbourhood
In May and August of this year, the institute’s City Pulse survey was conducted in New York, San Francisco, Singapore and London, gauging people’s experiences in these cities by looking at a wide range of indicators. It found that roughly two-thirds of people have increased their interest in moving since COVID-19. Unsurprisingly, public transportation was the main driver, due to health concerns. According to the findings, respondents indicated an interest in moving to suburbs, smaller cities and rural areas because these places would provide closer proximity to working and shopping without long commutes on public transit.
It is important to state the obvious: Respondents were not considering a move so that they could remain at home in the post-pandemic future. On the contrary, a move facilitates access to places outside of their homes to fulfill their human needs. People are looking for cities where commercial, residential, institutional and humanitarian real estate are in the same districts and neighborhoods. This trend is the driving idea behind the 20-minute neighbourhood in the US (or, similarly, the 15-minute city concept in Paris) and is gaining attention around the idea that cities need to provide easy access to places and experiences.
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Will cities still be as attractive in the post-pandemic era?
Image: Gensler
Creating healthy, resilient and equitable neighbourhoods
The pandemic has impacted the ability of buildings to facilitate the social interactions they are designed to deliver. When examining our cities from a value framework, the places that do not support health and wellness lose value because people refuse to occupy them. Cleanliness and health and safety have the potential to be human experience expectations that will drive value in the post-pandemic environment as well.
People shape cities and their neighbourhoods, but these places also have the power to shape who we are. The designs of our cities are reflections of us. Our realization of the importance of equitable and inclusive design will become a hallmark of real estate developments as we move forward.
Climate change remains the defining issue of our time, and making healthy buildings for people and the planet will be critical. Making real estate people-orientated also means carbon mindfulness and embracing the circular economy. It’s not a zero-sum game, as these goals are complementary and mutually aligned.
Beyond financial value
Human-oriented design is a powerful opportunity because it adds value to real estate, and the benefits for society are cumulative. People have a choice to either stay home or go out. There will be winners and losers in the post-pandemic future as people begin to prioritize their use of real estate based on its human experience value.
Creating a built environment that motivates us to leave our homes requires a more holistic design approach focused on people’s experiences. Design must understand what drives behaviour, promotes human interaction and optimizes effectiveness.
While investable real estate has grown by more than 55% since 2012 (PwC), the COVID-19 crisis has underscored weaknesses in relation to human and planetary health along with drastic inequalities, leaving a stark reminder of the influence the built environment has on societies and the vulnerabilities that exist in times of crisis regarding how spaces perform.
As the real estate industry looks towards recovery, the need for transformation is clear. Portfolios must be rebalanced, and distressed assets repurposed. Technology must be fully embraced, and sustainability and wellness must be at the core of design and operation. The affordable housing crisis that already existed pre COVID-19 must be systemically approached to ensure access to adequate and affordable housing. If the Real Estate industry is to deliver transformation, it is more important than ever to ensure that policy, financing and business solutions are aligned in delivering better buildings and cities.
The World Economic Forum has brought together CEOs from the Real Estate industry to develop a Framework for the Future of Real Estate to help drive the industry’s transition to a healthier, more affordable, resilient and sustainable world.
Transforming real estate this way not only creates financial returns for developers and investors by creating a product that is in higher demand, but it also brings value to individuals, organizations and society as a whole. Our experiences are enabled by a vast array of places to work, live and play effectively, while providing inspiration, connection and discovery. Real estate is the stage on which life is lived, and its value can be maximized if it is designed to enhance those experiences.
TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.
The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.
However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.
Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.
OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.
The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”
The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.
The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
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