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Politics—not COVID threat—held more heft in US decisions to stay home – CIDRAP

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Two new studies show that political affiliation had much more influence on Americans’ decisions to stay home during the COVID-19 pandemic than did the relative numbers of infections in their communities.

Wide behavioral chasms

In the first study, led by Vanderbilt University researchers and published Dec 12 in Science Advances, researchers randomly surveyed 1,135,638 Americans from Apr 4 to Sep 10 about their political affiliation and if they had participated in social activities that could hasten the spread of COVID-19, such as eating at a restaurant, visiting family or friends, or shopping for groceries in person.

On average, 6,744 people responded to the survey each day. Using US Census Bureau American Community Survey estimates, the researchers weighted each day’s sample to be representative of the US adult population.

Democrats were 13.1% less likely, and Republicans 27.8% more likely, than independents to have social contacts during the pandemic. And while Democrats and Republicans initially indicated concern about coronavirus infection and said they understood the need to physical distance, the proportion of Republicans who said they were “very or somewhat worried about COVID-19” began to decline, but it remained at the same level in Democrats.

The reduced concern about the pandemic corresponded to a more rapid return to social activities among Republicans, despite rates of infection in their areas.

By September, Republicans reported participating in nearly twice the number of daily social activities than Democrats. The split was even more striking in terms of engaging in the riskiest activities, such as visiting a restaurant or mingling with friends or family. Republicans had increased their number of social activities by, on average, 75%, while independents reported a 60% increase, and Democrats reported a 47% increase.

“Suggestively, this increasing partisan divide accelerates the same week President Trump tweeted about the need to ‘liberate’ Michigan, Minnesota, and Virginia (April 17),” the researchers wrote. “By early June, only approximately 40% of Republicans report being concerned compared to around 80% of Democrats. Republicans’ concerns increased as the pandemic worsened through June and into July, but a large partisan gap persists.”

The authors said that the results show that in the United States, COVID-19 is as much or more of a political issue as it is a public health one, adding that strong political leadership, particularly by the Republican party, appears to be most crucial for changing Americans’ partisan-related behavioral differences during the pandemic.

The study “reveals not only that partisanship is more important than public health concerns for explaining individuals’ willingness to stay-at-home and reduce social mobility, but also that the effect of partisanship has grown over time—especially among Republicans,” the authors said. “All else equal, the relative importance of partisanship for the increasing (un)willingness of Republicans to stay-at-home highlights the challenge that politics poses for public health.”

Role of political affiliation in public health messaging

The second study, published today as a research letter in JAMA Internal Medicine, involved the results of an online survey of young adults originally recruited as ninth-grade students in Los Angeles in 2013 to answer semiannual questions about their health behaviors.

Led by researchers at the University of Southern California, this study was based on the most recent survey, which took place from May 18 to Aug 3. Of 2,179 respondents, 891 identified themselves as Democrats (43.1%), 148 (7.2%) as Republicans, and 320 as independents (15.5%), while 706 (34.2%) said they didn’t know or didn’t want to answer.

A larger share of Republicans reported infrequent physical distancing (36 [24.3%]) than Democrats (46 [5.2%]) and independents (21 [6.6%]) and those who said they didn’t know or declined to answer (40 [5.7%]).

Republicans reported a mean of 3.6 social activities in the 2 weeks before the survey, while Democrats reported 1.9, independents reported 2.2, and those who didn’t know or didn’t answer reported 2.2. Compared with other groups, Republicans were more likely to say they visited indoor public venues such as malls, restaurants, and bars and to attend or host gatherings of 10 or more people.

“In this study of young adults, predominantly living in Los Angeles County or elsewhere in California, self-reported Republican political party affiliation was associated with less frequent physical distancing and participating in social recreational activities that may perpetuate the COVID-19 pandemic,” the authors said. “Our findings suggest that efforts to promote physical distancing among young adults during the COVID-19 pandemic should consider the role of political affiliation.”

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Political parties cool to idea of new federal regulations for nomination contests

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OTTAWA – Several federal political parties are expressing reservations about the prospect of fresh regulations to prevent foreign meddlers from tainting their candidate nomination processes.

Elections Canada has suggested possible changes to safeguard nominations, including barring non-citizens from helping choose candidates, requiring parties to publish contest rules and explicitly outlawing behaviour such as voting more than once.

However, representatives of the Bloc Québécois, Green Party and NDP have told a federal commission of inquiry into foreign interference that such changes may be unwelcome, difficult to implement or counterproductive.

The Canada Elections Act currently provides for limited regulation of federal nomination races and contestants.

For instance, only contestants who accept $1,000 in contributions or incur $1,000 in expenses have to file a financial return. In addition, the act does not include specific obligations concerning candidacy, voting, counting or results reporting other than the identity of the successful nominee.

A report released in June by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians expressed concern about how easily foreign actors can take advantage of loopholes and vulnerabilities to support preferred candidates.

Lucy Watson, national director of the NDP, told the inquiry Thursday she had concerns about the way in which new legislation would interact with the internal decision-making of the party.

“We are very proud of the fact that our members play such a significant role in shaping the internal policies and procedures and infrastructure of the party, and I would not want to see that lost,” she said.

“There are guidelines, there are best practices that we would welcome, but if we were to talk about legal requirements and legislation, that’s something I would have to take away and put further thought into, and have discussions with folks who are integral to the party’s governance.”

In an August interview with the commission of inquiry, Bloc Québécois executive director Mathieu Desquilbet said the party would be opposed to any external body monitoring nomination and leadership contest rules.

A summary tabled Thursday says Desquilbet expressed doubts about the appropriateness of requiring nomination candidates to file a full financial report with Elections Canada, saying the agency’s existing regulatory framework and the Bloc’s internal rules on the matter are sufficient.

Green Party representatives Jon Irwin and Robin Marty told the inquiry in an August interview it would not be realistic for an external body, like Elections Canada, to administer nomination or leadership contests as the resources required would exceed the federal agency’s capacity.

A summary of the interview says Irwin and Marty “also did not believe that rules violations could effectively be investigated by an external body like the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections.”

“The types of complaints that get raised during nomination contests can be highly personal, politically driven, and could overwhelm an external body.”

Marty, national campaign director for the party, told the inquiry Thursday that more reporting requirements would also place an administrative burden on volunteers and riding workers.

In addition, he said that disclosing the vote tally of a nomination contest could actually help foreign meddlers by flagging the precise number of ballots needed for a candidate to be chosen.

Irwin, interim executive director of the Greens, said the ideal tactic for a foreign country would be working to get someone in a “position of power” within a Canadian political party.

He said “the bad guys are always a step ahead” when it comes to meddling in the Canadian political process.

In May, David Vigneault, director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service at the time, said it was very clear from the design of popular social media app TikTok that data gleaned from its users is available to the Chinese government.

A December 2022 CSIS memo tabled at the inquiry Thursday said TikTok “has the potential to be exploited” by Beijing to “bolster its influence and power overseas, including in Canada.”

Asked about the app, Marty told the inquiry the Greens would benefit from more “direction and guidance,” given the party’s lack of resources to address such things.

Representatives of the Liberal and Conservative parties are slated to appear at the inquiry Friday, while chief electoral officer Stéphane Perrault is to testify at a later date.

After her party representatives appeared Thursday, Green Leader Elizabeth May told reporters it was important for all party leaders to work together to come up with acceptable rules.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

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New Brunswick election candidate profile: Green Party Leader David Coon

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FREDERICTON – A look at David Coon, leader of the Green Party of New Brunswick:

Born: Oct. 28, 1956.

Early years: Born in Toronto and raised in Montreal, he spent about three decades as an environmental advocate.

Education: A trained biologist, he graduated with a bachelor of science from McGill University in Montreal in 1978.

Family: He and his wife Janice Harvey have two daughters, Caroline and Laura.

Before politics: Worked as an environmental educator, organizer, activist and manager for 33 years, mainly with the Conservation Council of New Brunswick.

Politics: Joined the Green Party of Canada in May 2006 and was elected leader of the New Brunswick Green Party in September 2012. Won a seat in the legislature in 2014 — a first for the province’s Greens.

Quote: “It was despicable. He’s clearly decided to take the low road in this campaign, to adopt some Trump-lite fearmongering.” — David Coon on Sept. 12, 2024, reacting to Blaine Higgs’s claim that the federal government had decided to send 4,600 asylum seekers to New Brunswick.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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New Brunswick election profile: Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs

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FREDERICTON – A look at Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.

Born: March 1, 1954.

Early years: The son of a customs officer, he grew up in Forest City, N.B., near the Canada-U.S. border.

Education: Graduated from the University of New Brunswick with a degree in mechanical engineering in 1977.

Family: Married his high-school sweetheart, Marcia, and settled in Saint John, N.B., where they had four daughters: Lindsey, Laura, Sarah and Rachel.

Before politics: Hired by Irving Oil a week after he graduated from university and was eventually promoted to director of distribution. Worked for 33 years at the company.

Politics: Elected to the legislature in 2010 and later served as finance minister under former Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward. Elected Tory leader in 2016 and has been premier since 2018.

Quote: “I’ve always felt parents should play the main role in raising children. No one is denying gender diversity is real. But we need to figure out how to manage it.” — Blaine Higgs in a year-end interview in 2023, explaining changes to school policies about gender identity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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