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2021 predictions for city – Investment Real Estate – Castanet.net

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As we look to 2021, I think a lot of people are excited to see 2020 in their rear-view mirror — the year that became a meme in and of itself for being wildly unpredictable and apocalyptic.  

The real estate market, however, started out strong, fell off a cliff during the first lockdown in the spring, then rallied back incredibly and finished a record year in many sectors. 2020 will be remembered by realtors fondly, I can assure you of that.

Luxury sales went through the roof as people fortified in anticipation of the next lockdown, and total sales jumped over 70% year over year. 

Now well into the fourth quarter, things are slowing as per the seasonal norm as the snow starts to fall. The question on everyone’s mind is, what does 2021 have in store for us? 

I was fairly bearish on the post-COVID market six months ago. I expected to see demand fall off once the bottleneck of buyers displaced from the spring lockdown had done their thing.

The market proved me wrong and continued to pick up steam. What hadn’t been predicted was the behavioural shift brought about by COVID-19 that would play right into the Kelowna real estate market’s hands.

Suddenly, workers became untethered from their offices, which caused many to completely rethink where they called home.

People who endured consecutive months in smaller living quarters began questioning their urban existence, and began the search for greener pastures. Buyers sought elbow room, a yard, ample space for home offices, gyms and at-home classrooms. 

Many homeowners living in the Lower Mainland made the decision to seek out a less populated area close by that offered relative affordability and the same four season lifestyle they were used to.

Kelowna became a focal point for so many seeking a change.

These behavioural shifts set in motion by a global pandemic will have a lasting impact on the buying decisions and will continue to funnel people into the Okanagan, so I see the demand remaining strong through 2021 and beyond.

This combined with record-low mortgage rates should generate enough sales activity to hold our inventory levels down in seller’s market territory in 2021.

The overall sales volume for the past two months was nearly $1 billion, this is unprecedented for our market when compared to last year at $470 million.  

This represents a lot of proceeds that find their way back into the local economy. There are dozens of ancillary businesses that benefit either directly or indirectly from this. Service providers, contractors, local retailers, you name it. 

This is good news.

Now, if you’re a buyer, you may not hear this as good news. If you have been on the sidelines for even just three months. you have watched the average single family home in Kelowna jump by nearly $40,000 and over $70,000 if you’ve been on the sidelines since before the pandemic.

Now, it’s not all full steam ahead, the market will face some head winds. As single-family homes had the largest price jump, the entry-level property has been pushed out of reach for many first-time buyers.

This combined with a strict lending environment will keep many would-be homeowners on the sidelines in 2021.

The other challenge we face is a small business economy that is a little battered and bruised after lock downs and social distancing protocols put into effect. The impact on our local job market is still unknown, but this will likely play out in 2021.

This brings us to the potential foreclosure issue that may be brewing — 3.7 million borrowers in Canada are still in government and private-sector mortgage forbearance programs. That’s about seven per cent of all active mortgages, according to Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data firm.

Barring further government support, experts there predict serious delinquencies could be on the horizon.

Having said that, I doubt we will see many foreclosures, however, as people have gained so much equity that they would just sell their property prior to the buyer getting conduct of sale.

In conclusion, my prediction for 2021 is a robust year in Kelowna real estate with some excellent growth opportunities in the higher-end single-family homes, recreational property and agricultural land.

A very strong rental market with low vacancy indicates that positive cash-flow will still exist for investors and homeowners can look forward to another year with single-digit property appreciation.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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