As the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to hit many parts of the country, provinces that were quick to act with strict containment measures have been more successful in limiting the spread, a CBC News analysis has found.
Using data from Oxford University that tracks provincial government responses to the contagion, we see within Canada a trend that has been observed in other countries: when authorities are slower to respond to a rise in new cases, it becomes more difficult to bring the spread under control.
“It’s not just about the public health measures. It’s also the timing of implementation of those measures. The timing is one of the most crucial factors,” said Saverio Stranges, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at Western University in London, Ont.
The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker evaluates governments based on several measures, including containment policies (travel restrictions, school closures), health policies (mask usage, testing programs), and economic policies (wage subsidies, debt relief).
After nearly 10 months of pandemic and two waves of infection, the data tells a clear story. Provinces that remained vigilant, particularly those in Atlantic Canada, avoided major outbreaks, while some that dropped their guards have struggled to contain surging case rates.
The ‘false self-confidence’ of the Prairies
Take, for example, the approaches and outcomes of Alberta and Manitoba, both of which have been hit by strong second waves of COVID-19.
The animation below compares the provinces’ COVID-19 containment measures with their weekly case rates since September. Alberta waited to impose strict measures as its cases rose, spiking to the highest per-capita case rate in Canada so far.
Manitoba, on the other hand, was quicker to react, and its COVID-19 case numbers plateaued sooner.
A note about Nunavut: because of its small population (less than 40,000 people), even small numbers of new COVID-19 cases appear as dramatic spikes when compared to other provinces.
“Alberta and Manitoba didn’t struggle in the first wave so much, and that set them up with a little bit of false self-confidence that they had it well in hand with very limited measures,” said Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist at the University of Toronto.
“They should have been terrified about what happened in Quebec during the first wave. That’s what the Atlantic provinces did. They looked at it and they said, ‘Good God, we could be just like that.'”
Epidemiologist Colin Furness says provinces with low case counts in the beginning of the pandemic should have been looking at hard-hit Ontario and Quebec and preparing accordingly. (Evan Mitsui/CBC News)
In July, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, P.E.I., and Newfoundland and Labrador created a bubble around the region that restricted travel from outside provinces. Those who lived within the Atlantic bubble could travel relatively freely, but outsiders were screened when entering and had to quarantine for 14 days. The agreement was suspended in late November as COVID-19 cases increased in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
The Atlantic bubble’s success was part luck
Experts interviewed by CBC News cautioned that there are significant limitations to making any direct comparisons between provinces, partly because there can be vast differences between factors such as health systems and population traits.
For example, outbreaks were more common in more populated areas, so provinces with smaller population centres had an easier task, Furness said.
“It’s not a level playing field,” he said.
Although COVID-19 can spread in rural areas, it needs a superspreader event to really take off, he said.
The chart below shows how strict provinces were in terms of a few select containment measures, according to the Oxford data. The darker the orange, the stricter the rule. Click here for a complete description of each measure.
And there are other differences between provinces that make direct comparisons tricky, Stranges said, including mobility, geography, access to public health facilities, demographics, and the standards within long-term care facilities.
Tighter measures in 1st wave despite higher numbers in 2nd
The Oxford data also reveals a curious pattern: across all provinces, measures to control the spread of COVID-19 were more stringent in the first wave, even if case loads were lower.
Because it was a new coronavirus whose severity was not fully understood, it made sense to slam the breaks, Furness said.
“In Ontario, we were fining people for sitting by themselves on park benches in March. That’s ludicrous,” he said. “We didn’t know much about how it spreads. We knew that it was potentially massively deadly and we were frightened. What was driving the restrictive measures in March was an abundance of caution.”
But, as the pandemic wore on, provinces also needed to deal with a frustrated public and increasing pressures from the economic sector, Stranges said.
“So, you need to also compromise what is acceptable, because we know that people get tired, especially in our Western societies where people care about their individual freedoms,” he said.
Some provinces tried targeted approaches as cases cropped up in certain settings. Manitoba, for example, restricted travel to vulnerable northern communities for periods in April and September, and barred visitors from care homes in March. But the window for using such approaches effectively can close pretty quickly, said Cynthia Carr, an epidemiologist and founder of EPI Research in Winnipeg, a firm that provides COVID-19 planning services.
“The problem is, with a highly interconnected and interactive society, those targeted approaches became less and less effective as community spread continued,” she said.
Winnipeg epidemiologist Cynthia Carr says targeted measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 lack effectiveness once there’s widespread community transmission of the illness. (John Einarson/CBC)
Malgorzata Gasperowicz, a developmental biologist and general associate in the faculty of nursing at the University of Calgary, described provincial preparations for the second wave as “flirting with the virus,” as some regions across Canada slowly implemented measures piece by piece instead of using the swift lockdown approach seen in response to the first wave.
Ontario, for example, started with targeted restrictions in certain cities at the beginning of October. But the case numbers continued to grow, and by Oct. 25, the province reported more than 1,000 new cases in a single day.
The government then introduced a new rating system and corresponding set of restrictions for municipalities. Toronto and Peel Region were placed in the lockdown stage on Nov. 23. They were eventually joined by York Region, Windsor-Essex and Hamilton, but cases continued to climb. The Ontario government eventually announced a provincewide lockdown starting on Dec. 26.
Gasperowicz said another factor that contributed to the severity of the second wave in many parts of the country was how quickly some governments lifted restrictions when the numbers started to improve following the first wave.
“The lifting of restrictions is really an essential thing, and it’s why we are in a second wave,” she said, citing the success of the Atlantic bubble and similar efforts in Australia, where restrictions remained in place until daily case counts were down to zero and community transmission was eliminated.
“We know that Atlantic Canada did the best job. Their most stringent measures weren’t lifted before they reached zero new daily cases.… Everybody else opened too early, and then you started to grow again. Slowly, but the growth was everywhere.”
EDMONTON – Ontario country artist Jade Eagleson has won album of the year at the 2024 Canadian Country Music Association Awards in Edmonton.
The singer from Bailieboro, Ont., was up for six awards alongside Alberta’s MacKenzie Porter.
Eagleson took home album of the year for “Do It Anyway” and says he’s thankful to his wife and management team for helping him reach the level he’s at.
The James Barker Band from Woodville, Ont., also won fans’ choice and group of the year at the award show, held in Edmonton.
During their acceptance speech, frontman Barker hinted at new music and a possible tour in 2025.
Another Ontario crooner, Josh Ross, has taken home a trio of awards, receiving entertainer of the year, male artist of the year and single of the year.
He says he and his band play roughly 150 shows every year and are never home, but says taking home entertainer of the year makes the hard work worth it.
Porter took home female artist of the year, ending the five-year streak of Tenille Townes being awarded the coveted hardware.
Porter had been nominated seven times previously for the award in the past decade but hadn’t won until tonight.
The artist from Medicine Hat, Alta., says it takes a lot of hard work and hustle to succeed as a female in the country music industry and gave a shout out to her fellow singers and her newborn daughter.
Joining the two artists in the winners’ circle was Ontario singer-songwriter Owen Riegling, who won for breakthrough artist of the year.
The show began with American artist and co-host Thomas Rhett being dubbed an honorary Canadian by Edmonton Oilers players Corey Perry and Leon Draisaitl.
Rhett donned an Oilers jersey that was gifted to him by the pair.
The return of k.d. lang and the Reclines was expected to be a highlight of the show.
The appearance will mark the first time the Alberta songstress has teamed up with the band in 35 years and is tied to lang’s induction into the Canadian Country Music Hall of Fame.
The awards show is back in Alberta’s capital for the first time since 2014. It was held in Hamilton last year and in Calgary in 2022.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.
VANDERHOOF, B.C. – British Columbia Conservatives are promising changes they say will bring more stability to the province’s struggling forest industry.
Leader John Rustad announced his plan for the sector a week before the official launch of the provincial election campaign, saying a Conservative government would do away with stumpage fees paid when timber is harvested and instead put a tax on the final products that are produced.
Rustad said Saturday that under a provincial Conservative government, a small fee may be charged upfront, but the bulk would come at the end of the process, depending on what type of product is created.
He also promised to review how wildfires are managed, as well as streamline the permit process and review what he calls the province’s “uncompetitive cost structure.”
“British Columbia is by far the highest cost producers of any jurisdiction in North America. We need to be able to drive down those costs, so that our forest sector can actually be able to do the reinvestment, to be able to create the jobs and make sure that they’re still there to be able to support our communities,” he said.
The governing New Democrats meanwhile, say eliminating stumpage fees would inflame the softwood lumber dispute with the United States and hurt forestry workers.
In a statement issued by the NDP, Andrew Mercier, the party’s candidate in Langley-Willowbrook, said Rustad failed to support the industry when he was in government under the former BC Liberals.
“Not only will Rustad’s old thinking and recycled ideas fail to deliver, his proposal to eliminate stumpage would inflame the softwood lumber dispute — punishing forestry workers and communities,” Mercier said, accusing Rustad of ignoring the complexity of the challenges facing the industry.
The softwood lumber dispute between the U.S. and Canada stretches back decades. In August, the U.S. Department of Commerce nearly doubled duties on softwood lumber.
International Trade Minister Mary Ng has said Canada has taken steps to launch two legal challenges under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
Rustad said a provincial Conservative government would push hard to get a deal with the United States over the ongoing dispute “whether it’s with the rest of Canada or by itself.”
He said his party’s proposed changes are in the name of bringing “stability” and “hope” to the industry that has seen multiple closures of mills in rural communities over the last several years.
Most recently, Canfor Corp. decided to shutter two northern British Columbia sawmills earlier this month, leaving hundreds of workers unemployed by the end of the year.
According to the United Steelworkers union, Canfor has closed 10 mills in the province since November 2011, including nine in northern B.C.
Jeff Bromley, chair of the United Steelworkers wood council, said Saturday the idea of changes in favour of taxing the final product has been floated in the past.
He said the finer details of the Conservative plan will be important, but that the system needs to be improved and “new ideas are certainly something I’d be willing to entertain.”
“Something needs to happen, or the industry is just going to bleed and wither away and be a shadow of its former self,” Bromley said.
“Politics aside, if (Rustad) can come up with a policy that enables my members to work, then I would be supportive of that. But then I’m supportive of any government that would come up with policies and fibre for our mills to run. Period.”
When Canfor announced its latest closures, Forests Minister Bruce Ralston said the sector was a “foundational part” of the province and the current NDP government would work to support both local jobs and wood manufacturing operations.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024
SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) — The San Francisco 49ers placed All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve because of his lingering calf and Achilles tendon injuries.
The move made Saturday means McCaffrey will miss at least four more games after already sitting out the season opener. He is eligible to return for a Thursday night game in Seattle on Oct. 10.
McCaffrey got hurt early in training camp and missed four weeks of practice before returning to the field on a limited basis last week. He was a late scratch for the opener on Monday night against the Jets and now is sidelined again after experiencing pain following practice on Thursday.
McCaffrey led the NFL last season with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and was tied for the league lead with 21 touchdowns, winning AP Offensive Player of the Year.
The Niners made up for McCaffrey’s absence thanks to a strong performance from backup Jordan Mason, who had 28 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown in San Francisco’s 32-19 victory over the New York Jets. Mason is set to start again Sunday at Minnesota.
After missing 23 games because of injuries in his final two full seasons with Carolina, McCaffrey had been healthy the past two seasons.
He missed only one game combined in 2022-23 — a meaningless Week 18 game last season for San Francisco when he had a sore calf. His 798 combined touches from scrimmage in the regular season and playoffs were the third most for any player in a two-year span in the past 10 years.
Now San Francisco will likely rely heavily on Mason, a former undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech who had 83 carries his first two seasons. He had at least 10 touches just twice before the season opener, when his 28 carries were the most by a 49ers player in a regular-season game since Frank Gore had 31 against Seattle on Oct. 30, 2011.
The Niners also have fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor Jr. on the active roster. Guerendo played three offensive snaps with no touches in the opener. Taylor had 65 carries for Green Bay from 2021-23.
San Francisco also elevated safety Tracy Walker III from the practice squad for Sunday’s game against Minnesota.
