After a year of innumerable twists and turns in US politics, 2021 is shaping up to be a year of significant change.
President Donald Trump will exit the White House on January 20 and leave behind a Republican Party searching for a way forward with or without him as the centre of attention.
President-elect Joe Biden will re-enter a Washington political scene that he hopes to tame after years of intense polarization and will be confronted not only by resistance from Republicans but from within his own party as well.
Here are four things to watch as a new year in US politics commences:
Biden’s first 100 days
As with any new presidential administration, all the focus will be on what is accomplished in the first 100 days – an arbitrary measure, to be sure, but one that politicians use to set an agenda, and one that pundits use to gauge a new president’s initial governance.
Biden has laid out an ambitious plan, mostly as a reaction to Trump’s policies as president, but particularly to his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
The president-elect said that he will ask Americans to wear masks after he is sworn in as president on January 20. “Just 100 days to mask, not forever. One hundred days,” he told CNN on December 3. A few days later, Biden vowed that he and his health team will get “at least 100 million COVID vaccine shots into the arms of the American people in the first 100 days” and “will work to see that the majority of our schools can be open by the end of my first 100 days.”
Biden has also said he would rejoin the World Health Organization. Trump withdrew from it in June.
On foreign policy, Biden has repeatedly signaled that Trump’s “America First” philosophy will be a thing of the past and has promised to rebuild alliances he argues suffered under Trump.
Biden has promised to rejoin the Paris climate agreement on his first day as president. Trump left that accord in 2017. The new president is also expected to undo many of Trump’s executive actions on the environment, as well as on immigration.
“On day one I’ll end Trump’s unconstitutional Muslim Ban”, Biden told a Muslim advocacy group in October. Also on the list of expected immigration-related reversals: ending the emergency declaration diverting funding to build the wall on the southern US border, restoring protections for children who were brought the US illegally, and ending Trump’s stricter asylum laws.
In addition, Biden and congressional Democrats are expected to propose more pandemic stimulus funding, try to undo Trump tax cuts that benefitted the wealthy, expand Obamacare, and push for police and criminal justice reforms.
Will Congress get anything done?
Democrats will have control of the White House, the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate when January 20 rolls around, but that does not mean things will be smooth sailing, despite Biden’s optimism that he can restore bipartisanship to Washington.
Even if Democrats win both Georgia runoff races on January 5, resulting in a 50-50 Senate with Vice president-elect Kamala Harris the tiebreaking vote, the party’s control in both the Senate and House will be so slim that it will not be easy to get bills to Biden’s desk.
A 50-50 Democratic-majority Senate gives any single Democrat an inordinate amount of power to derail partisan legislation, leaving Biden and Democratic leaders to craft bills that can attract at least a few Republican senators or are written to guarantee all 50 Democratic votes. Hewing to the former likely alienates the most progressive Democrats, like Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. And trying to come up with an idea that is palatable to all 50 Democrats without any defections will not be any easier.
Biden promises to work with congressional Republicans, including Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, left [File: Zach Gibson/AP Photo]
Combine that with a Democrat-controlled House that will have the smallest majority by either party in 90 years, and in this era of extreme partisanship it could shape up to be a recipe for gridlock or, at least, a Congress that is unable to move any groundbreaking legislation.
One other key factor to watch for as 2021 progresses: Members of Congress up for re-election, which includes every member of the House and one-third of the Senate.
“[L]awmakers will always think about the next election in 2022, a midterm vote that usually goes against the party holding the White House, making those members from swing or close districts — most of them from the moderate wing of the party — especially antsy and fearful of controversial issues or votes,” Norm Ornstein, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote in the Washington Post this month.
Democratic resistance
One key problem for the Democrats is that they still have not decided on which direction they want to head policy-wise. As young progressives grew in numbers and became more vocal after the 2018 midterms, they have been trying to force the party further left. But with significant losses in battleground House districts as well as in over 200 counties won by Barack Obama and then by Trump in 2016 and 2020, the party’s moderates are blaming progressives for alienating middle-of-the-road voters.
These fights played out throughout the presidential primaries and are continuing through the Biden transition with progressives lashing out at old-guard Democratic leaders.
“For Democrats to succeed, [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and the rest of Congressional Democratic leadership have to be clear-eyed about their failures. Even as we celebrate President-elect Biden’s historic defeat of Trump, they must be held responsible for these disappointing down ballot results,” a coalition of progressive groups wrote in a November post-election memo.
From left, US Representatives Ayanna Pressley, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Rashida Tlaib are among the vocal progressives criticizing establishment Democratic leaders [File: Steve Ruark/AP Photo]
Establishment and moderate Democrats argue that progressives’ unwavering insistence on unpopular policy ideas such as “defunding the police” and the Green New Deal, not only are turning off moderate voters, but they set up Democrats as easy political targets for Republicans.
“We have to commit to not saying the words ‘defund the police’ ever again,” Representative Abigail Spanberger, who won an extremely tight reelection race in November, said on a post-election conference call with her fellow Democratic members. “We have to not use the words ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again.”
“If we are classifying [Election Day] as a success and we run this way again, we will get f—— torn apart in 2022,” she added.
With progressives and moderates signalling that these fights will spill over into Biden’s term, it appears some policy gridlock could be self-inflicted for the Democrats and not just a result of the parties fighting with each other.
Trump’s – and the Republican Party’s – political futures
While the Democrats’ internal political battles may affect whether anything gets done in Washington in 2021, the Republicans’ own political battles will determine their future and who will be the key leaders of the party moving forward.
Certainly, the immediate focus will be on what Trump does when he leaves office and how involved he stays in politics. If he continues to be the centre of the party’s orbit – especially if he announces a 2024 presidential bid – that will be a key factor in determining the direction the party takes, especially considering Trump remains extremely popular among Republican voters.
Trump has not been shy about threatening Republicans who he feels have crossed him politically, going so far as calling his party’s leaders “pathetic” this week for not backing him forcefully enough on his efforts to overturn the election.
….and Congressmen/Congresswomen Elected. I do believe they forgot!
There is a long list of Republicans, including Vice President Mike Pence, Trump’s children, numerous US Senators, governors, and other Republican officials, who will surely be looking to make names for themselves either as Trump heirs or as advocates of pursuing a path away from Trumpism.
Vice President Mike Pence, left, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, center, and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley are just a few of the Republicans expected to try to raise their profile in the coming year. [File: Chase Stevens/AP Photo]
Still, said Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who has regularly spoken out against Trump and is considered a potential 2024 presidential candidate, Trump will continue to hold an outsized influence on the party for the immediate future.
“[T]here’s no question he’s not going away, and there’s going to be a big chunk of the Republican Party that’s going to still follow his Twitter page and listen to what he has to say,” Hogan said Sunday on ABC News.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.
“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.
“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”
Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”
“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.
“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”
While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.
“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.
Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.
Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.
“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.
New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.
The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.
It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.
While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.
Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.
He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.
Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.
The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.
With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.
The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.
The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.
She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.
Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.
They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.
However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.
Her statement on X is closed to comments.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
From left, US Representatives Ayanna Pressley, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Rashida Tlaib are among the vocal progressives criticizing establishment Democratic leaders [File: Steve Ruark/AP Photo]
Vice President Mike Pence, left, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, center, and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley are just a few of the Republicans expected to try to raise their profile in the coming year. [File: Chase Stevens/AP Photo]
