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Global economy faces fears of a 'lost decade' as COVID-19 cases surge – CBC.ca

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Optimism that the early arrival of a vaccine meant that the global economy would be out of the woods in 2021 is facing a rethink as COVID-19 resurges and mutates.

There remains every possibility that an efficient rollout of the vaccine in Canada and elsewhere really will lead to signs of a recovery well before the end of this year. But there are voices suggesting that the pandemic may hold more bad news in store.

Certainly the year’s first day of market trading was less than auspicious.

“Stocks hit records early in the session as investors focused on the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines,” Reuters reported. “But investors quickly turned cautious over the path of the virus, which continues to spread amid the discovery of a new variant.”

It is never a good idea to put too much stock in a single day’s trading or the instant analysis of sudden market moves, but Monday’s decline — which saw a fall in the technology-heavy Nasdaq market of nearly three per cent — added to a feeling of unease.

Triggering tighter restrictions

“As the new COVID-19 strain triggers tighter restrictions on economic activity and limits even more the movement of people, it has become increasingly clear that the road to vaccine-induced immunity will now have more potholes,” Mohamed El-Erian, a well-known U.S. adviser to financial corporations who is now president of Queen’s College, Cambridge, wrote in Tuesday’s Financial Times.

El-Erian worried that the struggle to recover from the pandemic’s economic impact would lead to misguided efforts by countries toward a “further weaponization of trade tariffs” and a destabilizing polarization in politics and income.

Ambulances line up in London on Tuesday, where a more virulent strain of COVID-19 has contributed to a renewed outbreak and new economic closures. Case and death rates in regions that remained largely open mean places such as Britain have faced growing pressure to take stronger action. (Hannah McKay/Reuters)

Virologists warn of not just a single new strain but a series of continuing mutations as the disease spreads around the world, constantly evolving through accidental changes in its genetic makeup. Then, as we have already seen, the most virulent versions out-compete their viral cousins to sweep back out and around the world.

With luck, the faster-spreading mutations will be no worse — and could theoretically be milder. But some scientists in the United Kingdom have warned that current vaccines may not be as effective on one new variant in South Africa.

The more virulent European version has already turned up in the United States and Canada. As of this writing, the one found in South Africa has not yet been spotted here, but experience with previous transmission waves implies its arrival is inevitable.

Meanwhile, the idea that countries and regions can fight the virus while keeping the economy intact is facing contradictory evidence.

Case and death rates in regions that remained largely open mean places such as Britain and the U.S. have faced increasing public pressure to take stronger action, even as the economy weakens. Places that imposed severe lockdowns earlier in the battle against the pandemic, such as Australia and China, have seen relative economic success.

Police patrol the streets of Johannesburg on Jan. 1 during a curfew imposed after a new variant of the coronavirus was found. Some scientists in the U.K. have warned that current vaccines may not be as effective on the variant in South Africa. (Siphiwe Sibeko/Reuters)

World Bank worries about debt, education breakdown

China’s economic data is commonly disputed, but the World Bank suggests growth in the country will rebound to about eight per cent this year.

In its newly released Global Economic Prospects report for 2021, the World Bank fears a lingering impact from the virus — what it warned could be a “lost decade,” especially for countries that failed to get on top of the pandemic early.

“Many countries are expected to lose a decade or more of per-capita income gains,” the World Bank report said. “Downside risks include the possibility of a further resurgence of the virus, more severe effects on potential output from the pandemic and financial stress.”

Besides the immediate damage to the economy caused by interruptions to trade, domestic commercial activity and job losses, the World Bank worries that such factors as a huge piling up of public and private debt and a breakdown in education will lead to a prolonged deterioration in economic prospects.

A nearly empty Pearson International Airport in Toronto on Dec. 30. In parts of Canada and in the U.K., calls for stricter measures — including more severe limits on travel intended to combat the spread of COVID-19 — make hopes for an economic rebound in 2021 seem less certain. (Carlos Osorio/Reuters)

In parts of Canada and in the U.K., calls for stricter measures — including more severe limits on travel intended to combat holiday-induced spread and growing pressure on hospitals — mean earlier hopes that the autumn rebound would continue into 2021 seem less certain.

Although they may be distorted by the holidays, jobs data for both the U.S. and Canada are due on Friday and will offer the freshest possible update on whether the slow but steady uptick in the Canadian economy has stalled.

Gross domestic product figures released two weeks ago showed that growth has continued to creep up ever since April’s big dip. If that continues, it won’t strictly be a V-shaped recovery, but maybe a V written by a four-year-old that stretches out a bit too far to the right.

That may have changed. The GDP data was from October when everyone was far more optimistic, whereas Statistics Canada collected the December jobs data that we’ll see on Friday just weeks ago.

Those employment figures may offer a first hint if the right-hand bar of the V has jogged down, making it into something closer to a W — the potential indicator of a double-dip recession.

WATCH | Making vital supplies became saviour for manufacturers during pandemic:

As the pandemic ramped up, Canada’s manufacturing sector nimbly shifted gears and started making products to keep people safe from COVID-19. Even among manufacturers, it reminded people what happens when a country makes its own necessary goods. 2:09

Follow Don Pittis on Twitter: @don_pittis

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

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FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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