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Condo Owners "Handcuffed" in the Toronto Real Estate Market? – RE/MAX News

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Increasing valuations and surging rents had been the hallmarks of the Toronto real estate market, particularly for condominiums, in the years following the 2008-2009 Great Recession. The staggering demand for dense downtown housing, as well as investor speculation and short-term rentals, contributed to one of the hottest housing markets in the world.

Then the COVID-19 public health crisis happened.

Like other major urban centres, the coronavirus pandemic has altered the residential landscape in Toronto, which has become associated with an enormous inventory of tiny and ultra-expensive condominiums. North America’s fourth-largest city is enduring a two-pronged problem. The first is that Airbnb hosts are selling their vacant short-term units, with borders closed to non-essential travel, and short-term rental rules tightened last year. The second is that people are fleeing the hyper-dense city for green pastures in rural communities.

This begs the question: can condo owners sell their units in a market plagued by dwindling demand and surging inventory? Many savvy investors who got in on the ground floor in the last decade will likely turn a profit when they secure a buyer. However, somebody who acquired a one- or two-bedroom suite in the last couple of years may find it harder to make money off the property and use the proceeds to upgrade to a detached or semi-detached house.

Ultimately, some Toronto condo owners may be feeling trapped by a large inventory of condos, most of which had been erected in the last few years. Or, as Dale-Paul Jordan, who listed his Toronto condo, told Reuters: “One of the things we’re handcuffed to is selling our condo to help with the down payment.” But does the data reflect the notion that condo owners in the Toronto real estate market are handcuffed? Let’s explore!

Condo Owners in the Toronto Real Estate Market

Sales activity and prices slowed down in the fall, while condo stocks intensified across the city.

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), average Toronto condo prices tumbled 4.7 per cent year-over-year in December to $625,828, a contrast to the 8.1-per-cent growth in the average detached home price ($1,475,758).

Could this be the new norm, at least temporarily?

Recent TRREB data highlights that condo inventories more than doubled in the Greater Toronto Area. This has been a remarkable turn of events, because the broader real estate sector is booming in Toronto and the surrounding areas.

TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer noted in the report, “there was a dichotomy between the single-family market segments and the condominium apartment segment. The supply of single-family homes remained constrained resulting in strong competition between buyers and double-digit price increases. In contrast, growth in condo listings far-outstripped growth in sales. Increased choice for condo buyers ultimately led to more bargaining power and a year-over-year dip in average condo selling prices during the last few months of the year.”

For now, it seems as though Toronto condo owners looking to leave the city have two options: stay put or sell the unit at a deep discount. But perhaps 2021 will offer more options for “handcuffed” homebuyers.

A Rebound in the Condo Market in 2021?

It is widely expected that many of the public policy health guidelines will remain intact in the first half of 2021. This includes immigration controls and a crackdown on short-term rentals (Airbnb). But the second half of the year could see heated market activity, with more Canadians immunized with the coronavirus vaccine and consumers holding about $200 billion in savings.

Although there has been some speculation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could be the first central bank to tighten monetary policy, the institution has yet to send any signals that it would raise interest rates anytime soon. In other words, the BoC’s benchmark lending rate of 0.25 per cent and the five-year mortgage rate of below five per cent are unlikely to change in 2021 and possibly in 2022. Put simply, borrowing has never been cheaper, which is allowing new homebuyers to delve into the real estate market.

Another lingering question impacting the direction of Toronto real estate: if life returns to some semblance of normalcy following widespread vaccinations of Canadians, will corporations maintain their work-from-home policies? Google recently announced that the company would have employees return to the office in September and only experiment with flexible telecommuting a few days per week. This matters because many professionals have been enjoying newfound freedom over the last several months and some have migrated to regions further from their place of employment, soaking up the luxury of no daily commute coupled with quieter rural living.

But this could potentially change toward the end of 2021, with businesses returning to their commercial workspaces. Will this translate to a wave of homebuyers (and condo seekers) returning the big cities? Should this wave start to trickle back to the city sooner rather than later, this along with the other strong demand trends forecasted for the coming year, should provide some relief for handcuffed condo owners in Canada’s largest real estate market.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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