When COVID concerns put a stop to the 2019-20 NHL season, the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs sat tied in a telling defensive category, averaging around 2.7 goals against for every 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. That number doesn’t sound awful, but sprinkle in somewhere between 40-60 power play goals against (as is common in a full NHL season), and suddenly you have to score a whole lot just to get to the break-even number.
I say “tied” for simplicity’s sake, technically the Leafs were .01 worse in that category at 2.71. The Senators were right there with the Oilers and Leafs, while the Panthers, Sharks, Devils and Red Wings were the only teams worse in this stat — AKA the draft lottery teams.
Shots against per 60, unblocked shot attempts per 60, expected goals against per 60, almost all the “fancy” stats had both Toronto and Edmonton in the bottom half of the league.
The Leafs and Oilers stunk defensively, full stop.
Those are all just “against” numbers at 5-on-5 though. By and large, if you sort the numbers for total percentages (like goals for percentage, all strengths), both teams climb into the better half of the league, because if we know anything about these teams, it’s that they can score – particularly the top lines. The Oilers’ special teams were absurdly good last year, and the Leafs have balanced out their weak defensive numbers by playing high event hockey both ways at all strengths.
It’s really those elite guys who compel me to compare these operations at all. The Oilers have two Hart Trophy winners age 25 and under, to go with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamamoto. The Leafs have five players in their top six who went first, first, first, fourth and eighth overall. Both teams go as those groups go, they rely on them to give them a chance, and both teams get shut down when their top names aren’t going.
Both teams have for some years now looked at their back ends, squinted, and said “But if he has a career year, and that guy takes a step, and everyone stays healthy, our D isn’t that bad.”
And so it goes with Edmonton and Toronto. They’re two speedboats constantly using offence to bail water from porous defences, never quite sinking but not winning any important races either. In the sprint-length race that is the 2021 NHL regular season, the team that figures out how to finally patch those holes, rather than bail faster, is far more likely to accomplish their goals than the other.
Just a few months back in the play-in round against the Chicago Blackhawks, the Oilers scored 15 times in four games and won … once. The Leafs have lost three straight playoff series in deciding games, conceding a total of 15 goals against in those three games.
I realize I’m beating the dead horse here, but both teams have long identified their team weakness, and have sought to improve it. The Oilers have drafted well and have prospects on the way, while the Leafs have moved aggressively to add established NHLers to their back end.
What we’re left with at this point is asking what the likelihood is of that improvement happening?
Will the Oilers be able to get those holes patched?
To date this season the Oilers have allowed 15 goals through four games, which is worse than their goals against per game last season, though granted it’s absurdly early.
Their odds took a significant blow when it was ruled that their best defenceman, Oscar Klefbom, would be out for the season, which put them behind the eight-ball immediately.
It also didn’t help that what was likely the Oilers’ off-season plan – signing Jacob Markstrom – fell through entirely, leaving them with a goaltending duo that will almost certainly finish in the statistical bottom-third of the league.
I summed up my questions about the Oilers on Twitter a few nights back:
Are there any reasons to think the Oilers should keep more pucks out of the net since it submarined them vs the Blackhawks? Not being sarcastic. Development of some great young D, maybe? Lost Klefbom, added Barrie/Koekkoek. Turris, Puljujarvi, Kahun, Shore up front?
So far this season they’ve already scratched defencemen Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones, in hopes of plugging in more defensive defensemen in Adam Larsson and William Lagesson, but it’s unlikely that’s going to be the long-term fix for this team this year.
There are some positives, though. For one, defending is a mindset and can be coached, and the Oilers have a good one in Dave Tippett. But more than that, I think the Oilers have just had a rough start, and that a pretty good Montreal Canadiens team got the better of them in ways that would be internally eye-opening, but not worthy of panic. Sometimes it’s as simple as “our group can play better than that,” and there’s at least some element of that here.
Klefbom will be sorely missed, and the goaltending is unlikely to become a bright spot, but I do believe that somewhere in this mix is a six-man group that can allow the forwards to do what they do enough – outscore their problems – to keep them at the very least a playoff team:
I don’t think there’s much reason to believe it’s going to be great defensively in Edmonton. But with all their talent, it only needs to be good.
Will the Leafs be able to get those holes patched?
If you talk to their die-hard fans, they already have. There’s a belief among the fanbase that TJ Brodie puts them in a spot that gives the team a very good top-four (with Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl), and that surely there are enough options amongst the rest to find a good pair (that being Zach Bogosian, Travis Dermott, Rasmus Sandin and Mikko Lehtonen). And it’s possible those fans are right.
The less confident may consider how Rielly defends with an offensive lean, and the name Justin Holl in there – and the odd rough Brodie showing – and go “Yeah, that’s your plan? Those are the materials that are going to keep the water from rushing in?”
Freddy Andersen remains a wild card for this season, but he’s not far removed from playing excellent hockey, so there’s a “wait and see” element in net.
Up front, the Leafs have shuffled their lineup to become more defensively stout as well. John Tavares is being deployed almost exclusively in an offensive role so far this year, leaving the heavier matchups for their newly formed “shut-down” group of Ilya-Mikheyev-Alex Kerfoot-Zach Hyman. It’s another test case, but it’s at least a plan that isn’t just hoping things change on their own, somehow.
The rest of the forward group will never have a defensive bent, but you can at least see the team has made a real effort to patch up their defensive shortcomings of yore.
In the end, that’s all it comes down to for these two talented teams: Will they make keeping the puck out of their own net as much of a priority as putting it in the other one?
There’s no shortage of coaches who’ll tell you that more offence comes when you’re in good positions under the puck, and numerous Stanley Cup contenders over the past decade have proved that true. It’s a tough sell from the coach, though.
As Edmonton and Toronto get set to do battle twice in the next three nights, most fans are excited to see explosions of offence all over the ice.
But I promise you, behind closed doors, both teams are prioritizing the opposite.
DETROIT (AP) — The Detroit Red Wings signed forward Lucas Raymond to an eight-year, $64.6 million contract Monday, completing a deal with one of their best young players less than 72 hours before training camp begins.
Raymond will count $8.075 million against the salary cap through 2032. The 22-year-old was a restricted free agent without a contract for the upcoming NHL season and was coming off setting career highs with 31 goals, 41 assists and 72 points.
The Red Wings have another one of those in defenceman Moritz Seider, who won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year in 2021-22.
Detroit is looking to end an eight-year playoff drought dating to the Original Six franchise’s last appearance in 2016.
Raymond, a Swede who was the fourth pick in 2020, has 174 points in 238 games since breaking into the league.
PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Kirk Cousins led a flawless last-minute drive for Atlanta and connected with Drake London for a 7-yard touchdown with 34 seconds left to give the Falcons a 22-21 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night.
Saquon Barkley dropped a short pass that stopped the clock with 1:46 left and forced the Eagles to settle for a field goal instead of a game-sealing first down. That was plenty of time for Cousins — especially against an Eagles defense playing soft coverage with a nonexistent pass rush.
The 36-year-old veteran, playing his second game since tearing his Achilles tendon last Oct. 29 while playing for Minnesota, shook off an uneven effort and hit Darnell Mooney for 21 and 26 yards on consecutive plays during the decisive drive.
Cousins found London on a short pass to his right for the tying score, and Younghoe Koo put Atlanta (1-1) on top with a 48-yard extra point after London was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. The go-ahead drive took just 65 seconds.
Jalen Hurts had his final pass intercepted by Jessie Bates III to seal Atlanta’s win and set off a wild celebration on the sideline.
The Eagles (1-1) went ahead on Hurts’ 1-yard tush push score with 6:47 left. Barkley finished with 95 yards on 22 carries in his home debut for Philadelphia, but his drop provided the Falcons with some hope.
And then Cousins started playing like the QB Atlanta thought it was getting when it signed him to a four-year, $180 million contract.
Cousins finished 20 of 29 for 241 yards and two touchdowns. Atlanta’s first TD was a 41-yarder from Cousins to Mooney, who finished with three catches for 88 yards.
Hurts was 23 of 30 for 183 yards, including a touchdown pass to DeVonta Smith. With No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown out with a hamstring injury, Smith led the Eagles with seven catches for 76 yards and a score.
Jake Elliott kicked two field goals for the Eagles. His 28-yarder with 1:39 left made it 21-15.
Atlanta kept stalling in the red zone, getting three field goals from Koo, before Cousins fired over the middle to Mooney, who shook loose from C.J. Gardner-Johnson and left him on the turf before he somersaulted into the end zone with 1:21 left in the third quarter for a 15-10 lead. Cousins failed on the 2-point conversion pass.
Hurts had some juice in his step during a second-quarter TD drive, running with abandon for big plays much like he did in the 2022 season. He spiked the ball in a rare, raw show of emotion on a 23-yard run, earning a delay-of-game penalty. He shrugged off the 5-yard setback and scrambled for 9 yards and 15 yards to move the Eagles to Atlanta’s 19.
With comedian Shane Gillis and actor Bradley Cooper among the fans cheering on the Eagles, Hurts connected with Smith in the back of the end zone for a 7-yard TD that made it 7-3.
Under new defensive coordinator Vince Fangio, the Eagles have established an early knack for allowing long drives that end with three points instead of seven. Koo kicked field goals of 39, 22 and 34 yards, the last one enough for a 9-7 lead in the third quarter. In their opener, the Eagles held the Packers to just three field goals when they drove inside the 20.
Questionable call
Rather than take a chip-shot field goal from Elliott, the Eagles’ fourth-and-4 gamble at Atlanta’s 9-yard line in the first quarter failed when Hurts threw an incomplete pass.
Elliott kicked a 29-yarder with 4:31 left in the third quarter for a 10-9 lead.
Running wild
Bijan Robinson ran for 97 yards for the Falcons. The Eagles stuffed him late on fourth-and-1 at the Atlanta 39.
Barkley was quiet until the go-ahead drive, a week after he rushed for 109 yards and scored three touchdowns against Green Bay. Eagles fans booed when the opening drive of the game ended without Barkley touching the ball. They went wild when he had consecutive 9-yard runs to open the second drive. Barkley had 40 yards rushing in the first half.
Foles honored
Former Eagles QB Nick Foles, who led the franchise to its only Super Bowl title, served as an honorary captain and led the crowd in a rendition of “Fly, Eagles, Fly.”
Injuries
The Falcons played without LB Nate Landman (calf, quad).
Up next
Atlanta hosts Super Bowl champion Kansas City on Sunday.
TORONTO – Singles star Leylah Fernandez and doubles specialist Gabriela Dabrowski will anchor Canada’s five-player lineup when the team tries to defend its Billie Jean King Cup title in mid-November.
The 26th-ranked Fernandez, the 2021 U.S. Open finalist from Laval, Que., is the lone Canadian in the top 100 of the WTA Tour’s singles rankings.
Dabrowski, from Ottawa, is ranked fourth on the doubles list. The 2023 U.S. Open women’s doubles champion won mixed doubles bronze with Felix Auger-Aliassime at the recent Paris Olympics.
Marina Stakusic of Mississauga, Ont., returns after a breakout performance last year, capped by her singles win in Canada’s 2-0 victory over Italy in the final. Vancouver’s Rebecca Marino is also back and Bianca Andreescu, the 2019 U.S. Open champion from Mississauga, Ont., returns to the squad for the first time since 2022.
“Winning the Billie Jean King Cup in 2023 was a dream come true for us, and not only that, but I feel like we made a statement to the world about the strength of this nation when it comes to tennis,” Canada captain Heidi El Tabakh said Monday in a release. “Once again, we have a very strong team this year with Bianca joining Leylah, Gaby, Rebecca and Marina, making it an extremely powerful team that is more than capable of going all the way.
“At the end of the day, our goal is to make Canada proud, and we’ll do our best to bring the same level of effort and excitement that we had in last year’s finals.”
Fernandez, who beat Jasmine Paolini to clinch Canada’s first-ever title at the competition, is ranked No. 42 in doubles.
Canada, which received an automatic berth as defending champion, will play the winner of the first-round tie between Great Britain and Germany on Nov. 17 at Malaga’s Martin Carpena Arena.
Australia, Italy and wild-card entry Czechia also received first-round byes. The tournament, which continues through Nov. 20, also includes host Spain, Slovakia, the United States, Poland, Japan and Romania.
Stakusic is up 27 spots to No. 128 in the latest world singles rankings. Marino is at No. 134 and Andreescu, the 2019 U.S. Open champion, is ranked 167th.
Canada will look to become the first team since Czechia in 2016 to successfully defend its Billie Jean King Cup title.
Malaga will also host the Nov. 19-24 Davis Cup Final 8. The Canadian men qualified over the weekend with a 2-1 victory over Great Britain in Manchester.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
