adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Economy

Biden’s Vaccination Goals Could Lift the Economy – Barron's

Published

 on


This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.

Too Much Stimulus, Too Few Shots

Paulsen’s Perspective
The Leuthold Group
Jan. 21: The broad U-6 unemployment rate is currently 11.7%, and the regular U-3 rate is still 6.7%. Unemployment is higher today than about 73% of the time since 1950, so it is understandable why both monetary and fiscal policies remain full tilt.

Economic programs traditionally take time to improve unemployment after a recession. However, the Covid-19 crisis created a unique divergence within the job market that will not be solved by customary economic policies, but instead by vaccinations.

Consequently, with literally a “shot in the arm,” the job market may come back to life much quicker than almost anyone anticipates. Should this occur, policy officials will be left with a nearly fully employed economy and massive, excess stimulus—potentially creating additional problems down the road.

The fastest route to economic recovery—and perhaps the best approach to minimize unintended consequences longer term—is not another round of relief checks, but instead greater resources behind President Joe Biden’s desire to “put shots” in 100 million arms within 100 days.

Nutty Speculation

Investor Advisory Service
ICLUBcentral
Jan. 20: Outside of imperiled commercial real estate, almost no asset class looks cheap right now. Bonds certainly do not impress, with safe yields still near zero while inflation knocks on the door. Equities look better. The Wall Street Journal estimates the S&P 500 index’s forward price/earnings ratio at 25, almost exactly where it stood a year ago at this time. Investors will need to be selective. Corners of the market are clearly in bubble territory. This doesn’t have to end badly for investors, as the 2000-01 “tech wreck” left many stocks unscathed even as speculative stocks fell sharply.

Some of the stories we are witness to right now can scarcely be believed. The CEO of a fashionable growth company with a P/E over 1,000 and a market cap of almost $1 trillion recently tweeted his support for a social-media upstart called Signal. Investors responded by blasting money into an unrelated penny stock called Signal Advance, which saw its share price increase from $0.60 per share to a high of $70.85. Again, this is a totally unrelated company with a similar name. The stock cooled off somewhat, but as of this writing, Signal Advance remains up more than 1,000% from its unaffected price. The market is littered with similar stories of rampant, uninformed speculation.

Investors who stick to reliable companies backed by solid fundamentals still have a good chance to grow their purchasing power over time, even in an elevated market. Investors who throw their money into the wind will lose it. It is as simple as that.

Goodbye, Financial Crisis Funk

2020 Fourth Quarter Investor Letter
Pelican Bay Capital Management
Jan. 14: We believe that the theme for 2021 will be optimism. Society is poised to emerge from isolation and deprivation wrought by the pandemic. We collectively faced a crucible, and while it still may be hard for many to recognize it, we are all stronger and better prepared for the future….

Looking back at the pandemic, it may prove to be a blessing for society, providing the trigger that shakes us out of the funk we have found ourselves in since the financial crisis. The digitization of work and productivity is a boon for workers everywhere, as many are finally free of the 9-to-5 grind and daily commute to a large, stuffy office building. The interior of the country will have a renaissance, as high-quality jobs no longer require a cubicle in unaffordable city centers along the coasts. Suddenly, the immense challenge and costs of reversing climate change seem less daunting. Most important, we have unlocked a medical miracle that will have a profound impact on health care and longevity, akin to the engineering gains ushered in by the space race of the 1960s.

Covid Relief Could Shrink

Special Commentary
Wells Fargo
Jan. 22: We view Biden’s $1.9 trillion proposal [for Covid-19 relief] as an opening bid and not necessarily an outline that will be translated into bill language verbatim. But, the 19-page outline is fairly detailed for an opening bid, and it firmly signals that another Covid relief deal will be a day-one legislative priority for the Biden administration.

Our expectation is that a deal will eventually be struck, probably in March, but that the final legislation will be much smaller than what is in Biden’s proposal and more along the lines of the $900 billion package that was enacted in December.

We think that the balance of risks is skewed towards a smaller deal, or no deal at all, rather than a bigger deal closer to the initial Biden proposal. That said, when paired with the $900 billion package enacted at the end of December, this should be plenty of fiscal support to see the U.S. economy through to the summer when, hopefully, vaccine distribution is well on its way to completion.

Needed: More Houses

December Existing Home Sales
Amherst Pierpont
Jan. 22: Existing-home sales ended the year in a familiar place—stronger than expected. The December sales pace increased to 6.76 million units, up slightly from November though down somewhat from October’s 14-year high. For the year, existing-home sales totaled 5.64 million, up by more than 5% from 2019. It would have been hard to foresee that back in April!

The release strikes an optimistic tone, as the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, expects demand to remain robust in 2021, which seems like a good bet to me, as well. The biggest impediment to higher sales at this point is a dearth of available supply. The number of existing homes on the market fell by 16% from November and by 23% from a year ago. The months’ supply figure dropped to 1.9%, the first time ever below two months (going back to 1982). The NAR release applauds the sharp increase in housing starts in recent months but argues, as I have, that starts will probably need to remain vigorous for at least another year or two to catch up to the once-in-a-generation rise in demand for homes that occurred in large part because of the pandemic.

In Japan, Ouch!

Daily Notes on the Global Economy
High Frequency Economics
Jan. 22: Here is more bad news about Japan’s overall economic situation: National department-store sales in December were 13.7% lower than a year ago, according to figures this morning from industry association JDSA. In November, they were 14.3% lower than a year ago. Sales are not only depressed by public health measures, but also the population is aging fast and shrinking. That means fewer young households establishing new homes and families, and fewer customers for large-scale retail stores overall. Declining retail spending as the nation depopulates is a secular crisis, upon which the pandemic has been overlaid. Ouch!

To be considered for this section, material, with the author’s name and address, should be sent to MarketWatch@barrons.com.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

Published

 on

 

Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

Published

 on

 

VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending