Half (51%) say top priority for federal government is getting COVID-19 under control
January 27, 2021 – As the prime minister hints at the probability of a 2021 election, the leaders of both front-running parties find themselves under ever-increasing scrutiny.
Justin Trudeau finds his conduct on COVID-19 management – especially vaccine rollout – under the microscope, but Canadians are also evaluating the performance of Conservative leader Erin O’Toole.
And while the Liberal leader sees neither significant improvement nor deterioration in the way Canadians perceive him, views of his main opponent are trending in a more negative direction.
New public opinion polling data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds nearly half (47%) in this country have an unfavourable view of O’Toole – a 16-point increase since last September when fewer than one-third (31%) felt the same. One-in-five (22%) remain unsure about him.
These new data also find the incumbent Liberals holding a five-point advantage, 35 per cent to 30 per cent, over the Conservatives. The NDP receives support from one-in-five Canadians (20%).
The challenge for O’Toole and his Conservative Party is to reverse the current trend and attempt to pick up momentum in Canada’s most populous provinces. While the CPC hold vote advantages in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, the party has fallen slightly behind in British Columbia, and now trails by a notable margin in Ontario and Quebec.
More Key Findings:
Half of Canadians (51%) say that the COVID-19 response is the top issue for the federal government to address right now. This is the highest proportion holding this opinion since the pandemic began. Healthcare places second (38%), with economy third (29%) on the priority list.
If an election were called, Canadians are slightly more comfortable voting by mail (50% completely comfortable) than in person (44% completely comfortable. In each case, three-in-ten say they are not comfortable doing so.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX:
Part One: Top Federal Priorities
COVID-19 response and health care continue to dwarf economic concerns
Part Two: Leadership
Half continue to approve of Trudeau
Unfavourable views of O’Toole rise
O’Toole versus Scheer at six-month mark
Part Three: Vote Intention
Regional picture
Age and gender dynamics
Comfortable voting during a pandemic?
Part One: Top Federal Priorities
COVID-19 response and health care continue to dwarf economic concerns
Canadians continue to endure a near year-long pandemic, with lockdowns and pending travel restrictions weighing on the minds of many. Indeed, when asked what their top concerns are for the country, the COVID-19 response is the clear choice for top issue, with 51 per cent choosing it among their top three. Two other interrelated issues, health care (38%) and the economy (29%), follow in second and third spot:
COVID-19 has hit the country hardest this winter, with case and death counts rising to levels far surpassing the earlier wave of the virus. For that reason, the lower concern levels of the summer have been replaced with greater anxiety, as concern reaches the majority mark nationally for the first time (see detailed tables). Worry about the economy and the nation’s budget deficit are both stable now, and will likely replace health concerns at the top of the list of priorities when the pandemic subsides:
Part Two: Leadership
Half continue to approve of Trudeau
Canadians continue to look to the federal government for guidance on health measures and procurement of urgently needed vaccines. The supply of said vaccines has been disrupted temporarily with shipments delayed and potential restrictions on further supply from Europe causing more headaches for Ottawa.
Opinions of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remain unchanged from their pre-holiday mark, with half approving of his performance (50%) and half feeling the opposite (48%):
One-in-three Canadians view Trudeau with strong disapproval, while the largest group offer him moderate commendation. The latter has dropped six points since September while the former has risen by that much, as seen in the trendline graph below:
Trudeau continues to garner strong approval from his party’s 2019 voters and majority approval among past NDP and past Green voters.
Unfavourable views of O’Toole rise
Trudeau’s main opponent, Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole, in in a less favourable place with Canadians. Asked for their views, favourable or unfavourable, of the other major federal party leaders, Jagmeet Singh leads at 48 per cent, while just 32 per cent view O’Toole positively. Worse for the CPC leader is that nearly half of Canadians view him unfavourably (47%):
Looking at this with a net favourability rating, O’Toole scores a negative 15, while Singh boasts a plus eight. Green Party leader Annamie Paul continues to be an unknown to half of the country:
O’Toole has defended against accusations that he has modeled himself as Canada’s version of Donald Trump, after his party utilized Trump-style language at various points in 2020. The CPC leader released a statement recently pushing back against this narrative, condemning white supremacy and outlining his views for a “moderate, pragmatic, mainstream” Conservative Party.
Unfortunately for O’Toole, Canadians this message has not yet begun to resonate or gain traction among Canadians. Nearly half (47%) now view him unfavourably, up from 31 per cent in September, shortly after the leadership race:
Nearly two-thirds (63%) of 2019 Conservative Party voters view O’Toole favourably. For NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, favourability sits at 89 per cent among its 2019 base, while 83 per cent of past Bloc Quebecois voters view Yves-Francois Blanchet positively:
*Please note small sample size should be interpreted with caution
O’Toole versus Scheer at six-month mark
When Canadians were asked how they viewed then-leader Andrew Scheer just six months into his leadership run, they were evenly divided. Just over one-in-three approved (35%) of him and the same proportion disapproved (36%) at that point. Negative views of Erin O’Toole are 11 points higher at a similar mark in his term, at 47 per cent:
*Note respondents were asked to indicate their approval of Scheer, not favourability (see full report here)
Part Three: Vote Intention
Asked at the time of fielding if an election were held now, 35 per cent of Canadians say they would support the Liberal Party, compared to 30 per cent for the CPC and 20 per cent for the NDP:
This five-point margin represents one of the Liberal’s largest leads in data going back to the beginning of 2019. The SNC-Lavalin scandal and WE Charity affair both hindered the Liberals at various points, but the government’s management of the pandemic has evidently led to an increase in support at this time:
Regional picture
The key to the Liberal advantage currently lies in its strong performance in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, the nation’s most populous provinces, all of which show a strong preference for the incumbent party. The CPC is strong in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, whose smaller populations contribute to poor returns nationally. Notably, the NDP is now a preferred choice for at least one-in-five residents in every region other than Quebec:
Age and gender dynamics
The Liberal Party is bolstered by strong support from women. Trudeau’s party holds a 20-point advantage over the CPC among women ages 18 to 34, a 28-point advantage among women 35 to 54 and a 15-point lead among women 55 and older. The Conservative Party holds a corresponding advantage among men of all ages, but it is far smaller in each case. Notably, the NDP is in second place among both young men and young women:
Comfortable voting during a pandemic?
With election speculation never quite disappearing completely from political discussions during a minority government, it is worth considering how comfortable Canadians would be voting in a pandemic. If an election were held soon, 70 per cent of Canadians say they would be comfortable voting in person, while the same number would be comfortable voting by mail. In each case, approximately three-in-ten say they would not be comfortable doing so. Thus far, Prime Minister Trudeau has not committed publicly to holding an election this year, but sources have indicated that the topic has been discussed internally among the party:
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
To read the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.
The New Democrats have declared a federal byelection victory in their Winnipeg stronghold riding of Elmwood—Transcona.
The NDP candidate Leila Dance told supporters in a tearful speech that even though the final results weren’t in, she expected she would see them in Ottawa.
With several polls still to be counted, Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds conceded defeat and told his volunteers that they should be proud of what the Conservatives accomplished in the campaign.
Political watchers had a keen eye on the results to see if the Tories could sway traditionally NDP voters on issues related to labour and affordability.
Meanwhile in the byelection race in the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun the NDP, Liberals and Bloc Québécois remained locked in an extremely tight three-way race as the results trickled in slowly.
The Liberal stronghold riding had a record 91 names on the ballot, and the results aren’t expected until the early hours of the morning.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
VANCOUVER – An incumbent BC United legislative member has reversed her decision not to seek re-election and has announced she’ll run as an Independent in the riding of West Vancouver-Capilano in the upcoming British Columbia election.
Karin Kirkpatrick has been a vocal critic of BC United Leader Kevin Falcon’s decision last month to suspend the party’s campaign and throw support behind the B.C. Conservatives under John Rustad.
Kirkpatrick announced her retirement this year, but said Monday that her decision to re-enter the race comes as a direct result of Falcon’s actions, which would force middle-of-the-road voters to “swing to the left” to the NDP or to move further right to the Conservatives.
“I did hear from a lot of constituents and a lot of people who were emailing me from across B.C. … that they didn’t have anybody to vote for,” she said. “And so, I looked even at myself, and I looked at my riding, and I said, ‘Well, I no longer have anybody to vote for in my own riding.’ It was clearly an issue of this missing middle for the more moderate voter.”
She said voters who reached out “don’t want to vote for an NDP government but felt deeply uncomfortable” supporting the provincial Conservatives, citing Rustad’s tolerance of what she calls “extreme views and conspiracy theorists.”
Kirkpatrick joins four other incumbent Opposition MLAs running as Independents, including Peace River South’s Mike Bernier, Peace River North’s Dan Davies, Prince George-Cariboo’s Coralee Oakes and Tom Shypitka in Kootenay-Rockies.
“To be honest, we talk just about every day,” Kirkpatrick said about her fellow BC United incumbents now running as Independents. “We’re all feeling the same way. We all need to kind of hold each other up and make sure we’re doing the right thing.”
She added that a number of first-time candidates formerly on the BC United ticket are contacting the group of incumbents running for election, and the group is working together “as good moderates who respect each other and lift each other up.”
But Kirkpatrick said it’s also too early to talk about the future of BC United or the possibility of forming a new party.
“The first thing we need to do is to get these Independent MLAs elected into the legislature,” she said, noting a strong group could play a power-broker role if a minority government is elected. “Once we’re there then we’re all going to come together and we’re going to figure out, is there something left in BC United, BC Liberals that we can resurrect, or do we need to start a new party that’s in the centre?”
She said there’s a big gap left in the political spectrum in the province.
“So, we just have to do it in a mindful way, to make sure it’s representing the broadest base of people in B.C.”
Among the supporters at Kirkpatrick’s announcement Monday was former longtime MLA Ralph Sultan, who held West Vancouver-Capilano for almost two decades before retiring in 2020.
The Metro Vancouver riding has been a stronghold for the BC Liberals — the former BC United — since its formation in 1991, with more than half of the votes going to the centre-right party in every contest.
However, Kirkpatrick’s winning margin of 53.6 per cent to the NDP’s 30.1 per cent and the Green’s 15.4 per cent in the 2020 election shows a rising trend for left-leaning voters in the district.
Mike McDonald, chief strategy officer with Kirk and Co. Consulting, and a former campaign director for the BC Liberals and chief of staff under former Premier Christy Clark, said Independent candidates historically face an uphill battle and the biggest impact may be splitting votes in areas where the NDP could emerge victorious.
“It really comes down to, if the NDP are in a position to get 33 per cent of the vote, they might have a chance of winning,” McDonald said of the impact of an Independent vote-split with the Conservatives in certain ridings.
He said B.C. history shows it’s very hard for an Independent to win an election and has been done only a handful of times.
“So, the odds do not favour Independents winning the seats unless there is a very unique combination of circumstances, and more likely that they play a role as a spoiler, frankly.”
The B.C. Conservatives list West Vancouver School District Trustee Lynne Block as its candidate in West Vancouver-Capilano, while the BC NDP is represented by health care professional Sara Eftekhar.
Kirkpatrick said she is confident that her re-entry to the race will not result in a vote split that allows the NDP to win the seat because the party has always had a poor showing in the riding.
“So, even if there is competition between myself and the Conservative candidate, it is highly unlikely that anything would swing over to the NDP here. And I believe that I have the ability to actually attract those NDP voters to me, as well as the Conservatives and Liberals who are feeling just lost right now.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Egypt on Tuesday for his 10th trip to the Middle East since the war in Gaza began nearly a year ago, this one aimed partly at refining a proposal to present to Israel and Hamas for a cease-fire deal and release of hostages.
Unlike in recent mediating missions, America’s top diplomat this time is traveling without optimistic projections from the Biden administration of an expected breakthrough in the troubled negotiations.
Also unlike the earlier missions, Blinken has no public plans to go to Israel to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on this trip. The Israeli leader’s fiery public statements — like his declaration that Israel would accept only “total victory” when Blinken was in the region in June — and some other unbudgeable demands have complicated earlier diplomacy.
Blinken is going to Egypt for talks Wednesday with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and others, in a trip billed as focused both on American-Egyptian relations and Gaza consultations with Egypt.
The tamped-down public approach follows months in which President Joe Biden and his officials publicly talked up an agreement to end the war in Gaza as being just within reach, hoping to build pressure on Netanyahu’s far-right government and Hamas to seal a deal.
The Biden administration now says it is working with fellow mediators Egypt and Qatar to come up with a revised final proposal to try to at least get Israel and Hamas into a six-week cease-fire that would free some of the hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Americans believe public attention on details of the talks now would only hurt that effort.
American, Qatari and Egyptian officials still are consulting “about what that proposal will contain, and …. we’re trying to see that it’s a proposal that can get the parties to an ultimate agreement,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Monday.
The State Department pointed to Egypt’s important role in Gaza peace efforts in announcing last week that the Biden administration planned to give the country its full $1.3 billion in military aid, overriding congressional requirements that the U.S. hold back some of the funding if Egypt fails to show adequate progress on human rights. Blinken told Congress that Egypt has made progress on human rights, including in freeing political prisoners.
Blinken’s trip comes amid the risk of a full-on new front in the Middle East, with Israel threatening increasing military action against the Hezbollah militant organization in Lebanon. Biden envoy Amos Hochstein was in Israel on Monday to try to calm tensions after a stop in Lebanon.
Hezbollah has one of the strongest militaries in the Middle East, and like Hamas and smaller groups in Syria and Iraq it is allied with Iran.
Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged strikes across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas started the war in Gaza. Hezbollah says it will ease those strikes — which have uprooted tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border — only when there’s a cease-fire in Gaza.
Hochstein told Netanyahu and other Israeli officials that intensifying the conflict with Hezbollah would not help get Israelis back in their homes, according to a U.S. official. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private talks, said Hochstein stressed to Netanyahu that he risked sparking a broad and protracted regional conflict if he moved forward with a full-scale war in Lebanon.
Hochstein also underscored to Israeli officials that the Biden administration remained committed to finding a diplomatic solution to the tensions on Israel’s northern border in conjunction with a Gaza deal or on its own, the official said.
Netanyahu told Hochstein that it would “not be possible to return our residents without a fundamental change in the security situation in the north.” The prime minister said Israel “appreciates and respects” U.S. support but “will do what is necessary to maintain its security and return the residents of the north to their homes safely.”
Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, meanwhile, warned in his meeting with Hochstein that “the only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes will be via military action,” his office said.
In Gaza, the U.S. says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a deal in principle and that the biggest obstacles now include a disagreement on details of the hostage and prisoner swap and control over a buffer zone on the border between Gaza and Egypt. Netanyahu has demanded in recent weeks that the Israeli military be allowed to keep a presence in the Philadelphi corridor. Egypt and Hamas have rejected that demand.
The Hamas-led attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7 killed about 1,200 people. Militants also abducted 250 people and are still holding around 100 hostages. About a third of the remaining hostages are believed to be dead.
Israel’s offensive in Gaza has killed more than 41,000 Palestinians, said Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and militants in its count. The war has caused widespread destruction, displaced a majority of Gaza’s people and created a humanitarian crisis.
Netanyahu says he is working to bring home the hostages. His critics accuse him of slow-rolling a deal because it could bring down his hardline coalition government, which includes members opposed to a truce with the Palestinians.
Asked earlier this month if Netanyahu was doing enough for a cease-fire deal, Biden said, simply, “no.” But he added that he still believed a deal was close.
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Associated Press writer Aamer Madhani contributed to this report.
