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While the world is in the midst of a tech revolution, Canadians bet on real estate – Financial Post

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It’s important to talk about this now, because it’s possible we won’t notice that we are being left behind until it’s too late.

Here’s why. GDP increased 0.7 per cent in November from October, Statistics Canada reported on Jan. 29. That was much better than most Bay Street economists were expecting. The second wave of COVID-19 infections is testing our resolve, but the economy had decent momentum at the end of 2020. GDP was only about 3.5 per cent less than its level last February.

That’s an impressive recovery, all things considered. It took two years to fill the hole left by the Great Recession. The COVID-19 collapse was brutal, but it could turn out to be relatively short.

If so, the housing evangelists will want a good deal of the credit. The real estate industry generated output of about $262 billion in November, little changed from the previous month, which was the most on record, according to data recorded back to 1997.

Finance, real estate’s enabler, generated output of almost $144 billion in November, also a record. Banking now accounts for about eight per cent of GDP, compared with six per cent at the end of 2008.

Bay Street has almost as much economic weight as the entire energy industry, which matters because those industries extract more wealth than they create. Both benefit from policy, and their place atop the national accounts will make it difficult, if not impossible, to undo those policies. They will continue to attract talent and spin money between themselves.

If that happens, Canada’s economy will become less and less competitive. Productive industries such as manufacturing will suffer, because they hoarded cash instead of spending it on technology that would make them nimbler and greener. Corporate, household and government debt will become a bigger burden, because the economy can’t generate enough revenue to keep pace with interest payments.

But at least we’ll have our houses.

• Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | Twitter:

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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