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Bank of Canada keeps key rate target on hold, trims growth expectations for 2020

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OTTAWA —
The Bank of Canada is keeping its key interest rate target on hold at 1.75 per cent and forecasting a slower-than-expected start for the Canadian economy in 2020.

In its latest forecast, the central bank predicted the Canadian economy will grow by 1.6 per cent this year, down 0.1 of a percentage point from its projection in October.

While some of the slowdown late last year is being chalked up to a strike at CN Rail and an outage at the Keystone pipeline, the central bank says the weaker figures could also signal that global uncertainty is affecting Canada more than previously predicted.

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said indicators of the Canadian economy have turned decidedly mixed.

“Much of governing council’s deliberations focused on how persistent this recent slowdown in the domestic economy might be,” he said.

Poloz noted that vehicle sales, retail sales more generally, consumer confidence and job growth all softened at the end of last year, however he said third-quarter investment spending was surprisingly strong.

The Bank of Canada’s outlook is for a rebound in growth to about 1.3 per cent in the first quarter and a pickup to about two per cent after that.

In making its rate decision, Poloz said the bank weighed the risk that inflation could fall short of target against the risk that a lower interest rates would lead to higher financial vulnerabilities.

“Governing council will be watching closely to see if the recent slowdown in growth is more persistent than forecast. In assessing incoming data, the bank will be paying particular attention to developments in consumer spending, the housing market and business investment,” Poloz said.

The picture the bank painted in its report Wednesday was in sharp contrast from its last look at the economy, when a degree of domestic resilience remained in spite of weaker data points outside Canada’s borders.

There is “considerable uncertainty” about how long household spending may stay soft, the report said, as households are expected to be more cautious with their spending decisions and save more in the face of high levels of debt — all this despite a federal tax cut that kicked in on Jan. 1 and growth in wages.

The bank suggested weakness in the manufacturing sector and a tightening of provincial purse strings may have a dampening effect on the economy.

Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter called it a “dovish surprise” from the Bank of Canada which he said had sounded generally sanguine in its outlook for the economy in recent weeks.

“While we can all debate the merits of that view, there is no debating that the bank has an easing bias, and further significant disappointments on jobs and/or spending could prompt them to act on that bias,” Porter wrote in a report.

However, Porter said he believes that growth will bounce back more than the central bank is expecting.

The Bank of Canada said ratification of the new North American free trade deal — a top priority for the Trudeau Liberals now that the U.S. and Mexico have completed their processes — and a partial trade detente between the United States and China should help stoke economic fires in Canada.

Growth for 2021 is forecast at two per cent, up from the bank’s October forecast of 1.8 per cent.

The outlook for the economy could change if the Trump administration follows through on threats to slap tariffs on France, Brazil and Argentina.

The report also cites as a risk ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran, which has already led to the tragic downing of a Ukrainian passenger jet with Canadians onboard. An escalation could roil the Middle East and likely increase the price of oil, leading to higher gas prices across the country.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 22, 2020.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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