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Why the automobile has become a kingmaker for downtown commercial real estate – Financial Post

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Their nuanced findings confirm what industry watchers have observed since the onset of the pandemic: Commercial real estate in cities that “rely heavily on subway and light rail” has been affected more by the adverse impacts of COVID-19 than cities where commuting is dominated by the automobile.

The authors caution that these trends do not suggest that downtowns are done for — far from it. The analysis revealed that businesses, even since the onset of the pandemic, have been willing to pay a premium for commercial real estate in the city centre and near rail-based public transit.

A passenger on the Toronto subway during the evening commute on March 25, 2020.
A passenger on the Toronto subway during the evening commute on March 25, 2020. Photo by Cole Burston/Bloomberg files

The paper shows transit cities reported a higher density of employment in the urban core, reflecting businesses’ preference for central locations. On the flip side, commercial rents declined faster in transit cities than it did in auto-centric cities as the distance from the city centre increased. Furthermore, “COVID-19 reduced the value of density by 21 per cent” in transit cities.

The authors said COVID-19 does “weaken” city centres, but they still remain attractive, and the weakness is only in the largest and most dense cities.”

There are only three urban centres in Canada where public transit accounts for more than 20 per cent of work trips: Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. Just behind them is Ottawa-Hull, where almost 19 per cent of work trips are made on public transit.

Downtown Toronto constitutes the country’s largest employment hub, with almost 500,000 pre-COVID-19 jobs packed tightly in a small space. Neither downtown Montreal nor Vancouver is as large and dense as Toronto, yet both are still bona fide large employment hubs.

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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