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Coronavirus: Experts predict rise of COVID-19 variant cases – CTV News

Published

4 years ago

February 13, 2021

TORONTO —
Infectious disease experts and COVID-19 modelers are sounding alarm bells of an approaching third wave expected to be driven by more contagious variants of the virus.

But while we brace for Wave 3, some are wondering if we ever actually cleared Wave 2, especially in populous areas of the country where transmission has remained more steady.

Experts say the definition of what constitutes a “wave” and pinpointing when it’s passed isn’t so clear.

Some say we’re on the tail end of the second wave now, as evidenced by the downward trend of cases across the country, while others say ebbs and flows haven’t been uniform enough to determine when one wave ends and another begins.

Caroline Colijn, a COVID modeler and mathematician at Simon Fraser University, says the word “wave” has been somewhat misleading. Waves of viruses tend to ease up on their own as immunity grows within a population, she says, which we haven’t reached yet with COVID.

Instead, the ebb and flow of SARS-CoV-2 has been dictated by our own actions, Colijn added, for instance restrictive measures that limit the ability of the virus to spread.

“This isn’t a wave, it’s a forest fire,” Colijn said. “We turn the hoses off and the flames build up again and we get exponential growth. Then we turn the hoses back on and cases decrease.”

Colijn, whose modelling predicts steep rises in cases around the end of February in six of Canada’s biggest provinces, says the challenge of “wave language” is that when waves recede, people think the threat has ceded with it.

But until we reach levels of herd immunity, she says, that’s not going to happen.

“We’re not seeing a natural tailing off. We’re seeing things drop because of restrictions — those fire hoses we put in front of the fire,” she said. “Then we turn the hoses off and we’re surprised that this wave is coming back.”

Canada’s top doctors said Friday that eight provinces have reported cases of new COVID variants, with three of them showing evidence of community transmission.

Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam said there had been 429 cases of the variant first identified in the U.K., 28 cases of the variant first identified in South Africa, and one of the variant first found in Brazil.

While it sounds like a small number compared to our population, University of Manitoba virologist Jason Kindrachuk says the heightened transmissibility of those variants makes the situation more alarming.

Compounding things further is that true prevalence of the variants nationwide is unknown, he added, though some jurisdictions have been doing point-prevalence studies to help determine that.

Kindrachuk says one or two cases, when caught early and isolated, aren’t too concerning. But danger proliferates as more pop up.

“You have that initial fire and then sparks start flying … and that leads to a bunch of small fires,” he said. “If those start to catch, you lose the ability to necessarily keep things in control.”

Dr. Howard Njoo, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer, says the presence of more transmissible variants means people should be more diligent in adhering to current safety measures aimed at slowing the spread of other COVID strains, including limiting contacts, mask-wearing and distancing.

The spike in variant cases comes at a time when Canada appears to be “two-thirds of the way down the curve,” Tam said, as overall COVID cases fall.

Some jurisdictions, like Ontario, have taken that as reason to reopen. Most of the province is moving away from its stay-at-home orders next week, even though projections released Thursday show a potentially rapid rise by late February.

Dr. Andrew Morris, an infectious disease expert with the University of Toronto, says reopening Ontario now could lead to further lockdowns in the province later.

“I anticipate our numbers over the next two weeks are going to be pretty good, but it’s four weeks from now, six weeks from now that I’m most concerned about,” he said.

Troy Day, a COVID modeler out of Queen’s University, says the problem with the variants is that they’re still lurking beneath the surface. And they may not truly be seen until they take hold more firmly.

Day said he’s concerned about a third wave in Canada because places like Britain have shown similar trajectories.

“Cases go down and you think everything’s OK, but underneath is actually an increase in variant cases that will eventually dominate everything,” he said.

Day says the word wave is “funny terminology,” adding he’s been hesitant to definitively label the ups and downs of COVID case counts that way.

“All the waves we’ve seen are driven largely by what we’re doing to control it,” Day said. “The more we open up and shut down, the more multiple waves we’ll have.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 12, 2021.

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Tampa Bay Lightning select Victor Hedman as captain, succeeding Steven Stamkos

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6 hours ago

September 18, 2024

Anne Joseph

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — The Tampa Bay Lightning selected Victor Hedman as the team captain on Wednesday as training camp opened, making the big defenseman the successor to Steven Stamkos.

Hedman, who is going into his 16th season with Tampa Bay, was considered the obvious choice to get the “C” after the Lightning did not re-sign Stamkos and their longtime captain left to join Nashville.

“Victor is a cornerstone player that is extremely well respected by his teammates, coaches and peers across the NHL,” general manager Julien BriseBois said. “Over the past 15 seasons, he has been a world-class representative for our organization both on and off the ice. Victor embodies what it means to be a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning and is more than ready for this exciting opportunity. We are looking forward to watching him flourish in his new role as we continue to work towards our goal of winning the Stanley Cup.”

The 33-year-old from Sweden was a key contributor in the Lightning hoisting the Cup back to back in 2020 and ’21, including playoff MVP honors on the first of those championship runs. Hedman also took home the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s top defenseman in 2018 and finished in the top three in voting five other seasons.

Ryan McDonagh, who was reacquired early in the offseason in a trade with the Predators, and MVP finalist Nikita Kucherov will serve as alternate captains with the Lightning moving on to the post-Stamkos era.

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Toronto FC Jason Hernandez looks to clean up salary cap and open up the future

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6 hours ago

September 18, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – While Toronto FC is looking to improve its position on the pitch, general manager Jason Hernandez is trying to do the same off it.

That has been easier said than done this season.

Sending winger Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty to CF Montreal for up to $1.3 million (all dollar figures in U.S. funds) in general allocation money before the secondary transfer window closed in early August helped set the stage for future moves.

But there have been plenty of obstacles, which Hernandez has been working to clear.

“We feel a lot more confident going into this upcoming off-season that we did the one prior,” said Hernandez. “There’s a level of what I would say booby-traps that were uncovered when I first got the (GM) role at the end of last summer.”

The club is paying off departed forwards Adam Diomande and Ayo Akinola as well as a $500,000 payment due in 2024 to Belgium’s Anderlecht for Jamaican international defender Kemar Lawrence. That payment was part of the transfer fee for Lawrence, who joined TFC from Anderlecht in May 2021 and was traded to Minnesota United in March 2022.

Diomande was waived while Akinola’s contract was terminated by mutual agreement.

“That comes to an end in ’25, which is nice,” said Hernandez. “We had to suffer from a salary cap perspective this season. But those things coming off, the Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty money coming in, we’re going to be in a position to make some good additions, which is positive.”

While MLS clubs are allowed one contract buyout per year, Toronto had already used its on former captain Michel Bradley, who retired after last season. Bradley had previously restructured his contract, deferring money.

TFC’s only other move during the summer transfer window was the signing of free-agent defender Henry Wingo. Hernandez said the club knew going into the window that it was likely limited to the one acquisition “unless other business happened”

“We knew we had this bucket of money and we knew we were going to go get Henry,” said Hernandez.

While the sale of the highly touted Marshall-Rutty opened up other possibilities, it came on the eve of the transfer window closing. And the team did not like what it saw in the free-agent market.

“A lot of the opportunities we were presented in the free agency space felt more like a short-term, Band-Aid decision versus what actually the club probably needs.”

Hernandez was not willing to take in players who came with a “club-friendly” salary cap charge in 2024 and a much bigger number in 2025.

Instead, Toronto promoted forward Charlie Sharp and wingback Nate Edwards to the first team from TFC 2 ahead of last Friday’s roster freeze.

MLS teams are operating on a salary budget of $5.47 million this season, which covers up to 20 players on the senior roster (clubs can elect to spread that number across 18 players). But the league has several mechanisms that allow those funds to go further, including using allocation money (both general and targeted) to buy down salaries.

Designated players only count $683,750 — the maximum salary charge — against the cap no matter their actual pay. Toronto’s Lorenzo Insigne is actually earning $15.4 million with fellow Italian Federico Bernardeschi collecting $6.295 million and Canadian Richie Laryea $1.208 million.

Hernandez says Laryea’s contract can — and “very likely” will — be restructured so as to remove the designated player status.

There are benefits in going with just two designated players rather than three.

Teams that elect to go with two DPs can sign up to four players as part of the league’s “U22 Initiative.” The pluses of that structure include a reduced salary cap charge for the young players and up to an extra $2 million in general allocation money.

Hernandez says the club is currently pondering whether that is the way to go.

Captain Jonathan Osorio who is earning $836,370 this season, restructured his deal to allow the team to sign Laryea as a DP. In doing so, Osorio had his option year guaranteed so his contact runs through 2026.

Hernandez and coach John Herdman will have decisions to make come the end of the year.

The contracts of goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh ($94,200), defenders Kevin Long ($277,500), Shane O’Neill ($413,000) and Kobe Franklin ($100,520), midfielder Alonso Coello ($94,050) and Brandon Servania ($602,710), and forward Prince Owusu ($807,500) — all on the club’s senior roster — expire at the end of 2024 with club options to follow.

While there is more work to do, Hernandez believes TFC is on the right road.

Toronto, which finished last in the league at 4-20-10 in 2023, went into Wednesday’s game against visiting Columbus in a playoff position at eighth in the East at 11-15-3.

“By every metric, we are miles ahead of where we were at this point last year,” said Hernandez.

“That’s a low bar, so that’s not saying much,” he added.

But he believes TFC is “quite competitive” when it has all its players at its disposal.

“To get results in this final stretch, we’re going to need our prominent players to really show up and have big performances, and be supported by the rest of the cast.”

After Columbus, TFC plays at Colorado and Chicago and hosts the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami. The club also travels to Vancouver for the Canadian Championship final.

—

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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024

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Canada’s Hughes may be what International team has been missing at Presidents Cup

Published

6 hours ago

September 18, 2024

Anne Joseph

Mackenzie Hughes might just be what the International team needs as this year’s Presidents Cup.

Hughes, from Dundas, Ont., is one of three Canadians on the squad competing in the match-play event at Royal Montreal Golf Club next week.

His putting skills, cool demeanour under pressure, pre-existing connections with teammates and clubhouse leadership could help the team — made up of non-American players outside Europe — end a nine-tournament losing skid to the United States at the biennial event.

“I’ve had this one circled on the calendar for a few years now,” said Hughes on joining fellow Canadians Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners as captain’s picks on the 12-player International team. “I pretty much knew that when it was announced the tournament would be in Canada and that Mike Weir was going to be the captain, you pretty much knew where that was going to go.

“To get that call from (Weir) is really special because he’s the guy that I looked up to, we all looked up to, as Canadian golfers.”

Pendrith and Conners are returning to the team after a disappointing 17 1/2 to 12 1/2 loss to the United States at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. in 2022.

Hughes was ranked 14th on the International team standings in 2022 and could have easily been included on that squad after Australia’s Cameron Smith and Chile’s Joaquin Niemann were ruled ineligible after jumping ship to the rival LIV Golf circuit.

However, captain Trevor Immelman of South Africa instead chose the lower ranked Christiaan Bezuidenhout (16th) of South Africa, Pendrith (18th), South Korea’s Kim Si-woo (20th) and Australia’s Cameron Davis (25th).

“I certainly wanted to be on that team but also I understood the picks,” said Hughes, who lives in Charlotte and plays at Quail Hollow regularly. “I think that like a lot of guys that don’t get picked you more so look back on your own play and I wish I had made that selection easier for them.

“I didn’t do myself any favours in the six weeks leading up to it and that’s a hard pill to swallow.”

It may have been a costly oversight on Immelman’s part, as finishing holes was an issue for the International team in 2022 and Hughes is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. This season he’s third in shots gained around the green and fifth in shots gained from putting.

“It doesn’t mean that just because I was there it would have turned the tide, but I’d like to think maybe I could have helped,” said Hughes. “That’s why you play the matches. You have to get out there and do it.”

This year Hughes made it easier for Weir, the Canadian golf legend from Brights Grove, Ont., to choose him. Hughes is 51st in the FedEx Cup Fall standings and has made the cut seven tournaments in a row, including a tie for fourth at last week’s Procore Championship.

“Mac played very solidly all year. Really like his short game, an all-around short game,” said Weir on Sept. 3 after announcing his captain’s picks. “He’s one of the elite and best short game guys on the PGA Tour

“I also love Mac’s grit. So that was the reason I picked him.”

Hughes’s intangible qualities go beyond grit.

He, Pendrith and Conners will arrive at Royal Montreal as a unit within the International squad, having become close friends while playing on Kent State University’s men’s golf team before turning pro. They’re also part of a group of Canadians, including Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin of Abbotsford, B.C., that regularly practice together before PGA Tour events.

“To have those guys with me is really icing on the cake, it’s very special,” said Hughes. “Opportunities like this don’t come around very often: to play this kind of team competition, which is already hard to do, but to play with some of your best friends, it almost seems scripted.”

An 11-year professional, Hughes has also been a member of the PGA Tour’s player advisory council the past two years and has been an outspoken advocate for making professional golf more accessible to fans.

Although Weir relied heavily on analytics to make his captain’s selections, Hughes’s character came up again and again when asked why he was named to the team.

“I just have a gut feeling with Mac that he has what it takes in these big moments,” said Weir. “They’re big pressure moments, and I have a feeling he’s going to do great in those moments.”

DP WORLD TOUR — Aaron Cockerill of Stony Mountain, Man., continues his chase for a spot in the Europe-based DP World Tour’s playoffs. The top 50 players on the Race to Dubai standings make the DP World Tour Championship and Cockerill moved eight spots up to 39th in the rankings after tying for ninth at last week’s Irish Open. He’ll be back at it on Thursday at the BMW PGA Championship at the Wentworth Club in Surrey, England.

KORN FERRY TOUR — Myles Creighton of Digby, N.S., is ranked 38th on the second-tier Korn Ferry Tour’s points list. He leads the Canadian contingent into this week’s Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship. He’ll be joined at Ohio State University Golf Club — Scarlet Course in Columbus, Ohio by Edmonton’s Wil Bateman (53rd), Etienne Papineau (65th) of St-Jean-Sur-Richelieu, Que., and Sudarshan Yellamaraju (99th) of Mississauga, Ont.

CHAMPIONS TOUR — Calgary’s Stephen Ames is the lone Canadian at this week’s Pure Insurance Championship. He’s No. 2 on the senior circuit’s points list. The event will start Friday and be played at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course in Monterey, Calif.

LPGA TOUR — There are four Canadians in this week’s Kroger City Championship. Savannah Grewal (97th in the Race to CME Globe Rankings) of Mississauga, Ont., Hamilton’s Alena Sharp (115th), and Maude-Aimee Leblanc (142nd) of Sherbrooke, Que., will all tee it up at TPC River’s Bend in Maineville, Ohio.

EPSON TOUR — Vancouver’s Leah John is the low Canadian heading into the Murphy USA El Dorado Shootout. She’s 54th in the second-tier tour’s points list. She’ll be joined by Maddie Szeryk (118th) of London, Ont., and Brigitte Thibault (119th) of Rosemere, Que., at Mystic Creek Golf Club in El Dorado, Ark.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

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