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Carbon tax chatter returns to shake up climate politics – Politico

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The Biden administration has revived the idea of taxing carbon emissions to combat climate change and Congress quietly is crafting legislation to deliver.

But as with anything related to a carbon tax or fee, the politics are tricky. Progressives are deriding the concept as too market-based to adequately reduce emissions, and free-market Republicans have yet to embrace a plan that would raise fossil fuel prices.

For any legislation to have a chance, Democrats first will have to close fissures in their own ranks. Progressives have soured on carbon pricing after ballot box losses in liberal locations. Fossil fuel defenders on the party’s right — Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia in particular — aren’t budging from their opposition.

“We are all trying to assess the current state of climate politics and what is possible this year,” said Alex Flint, executive director of the Alliance for Market Solutions, a group of conservative leaders who support a revenue-neutral carbon tax.

President Joe Biden has thrown down his marker. His campaign platform included an “enforcement mechanism” for reducing emissions, which many interpreted as a carbon tax. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has endorsed a tax. White House climate envoy John Kerry and domestic climate chief Gina McCarthy both say a tax is on the table.

In a nod to political sensitivities, Biden officials also endorse a more generic carbon “price,” a term which covers an array of options such as cap and trade, and could be included alongside a clean electricity standard that sets requirements for renewable energy.

The president will want to make a splashy commitment on the international stage, possibly at his April 22 summit of world climate leaders. And the EU and U.K. are advancing carbon tariffs linked to pricing schemes, raising urgent questions of how the U.S. will align with those systems.

But on Capitol Hill, where climate negotiations are just getting underway, Democrats worry that the White House will prematurely issue its own specific proposals and upset fragile legislative consensus-building.

“I just don’t think he will be as successful if he tries to cook up a climate bill in the opening months of his administration and then present it to Congress. I think it becomes a target at that point,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), a carbon price supporter, said in an interview. “If at some point it looks like we’re going to fail, then they can always step in.”

There are tripwires on both sides of the aisle.

Senate Budget Committee Chair Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) shifting stance on carbon pricing could foreshadow the type of problems Democrats will have in writing a plan that wins the support of progressives. Sanders had campaigned for president in 2016 on a carbon tax, but those proposals were notably absent during his 2020 run after it fell out of favor with the left.

But Sanders never wholly ditched the idea — his campaign website still calls for “fees” on fossil fuel pollution — and it remains a potential policy tool. Green New Deal co-author Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has said a tax can be part of climate legislation.

Whitehouse said some Republicans have told him they could support carbon pricing, but would need strong public backing from corporate leaders before breaking from party orthodoxy to endorse a new tax.

Trade groups that have long been aligned with Republicans, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, American Petroleum Institute and Business Roundtable, have endorsed a loosely defined “market-based” mechanism for dealing with emissions.

While carbon tax supporters have talked about a “jailbreak moment” with Republicans, they’ve had little tangible success, said Mike Palicz, federal affairs manager with Americans for Tax Reform, a small-government group that’s influential in GOP circles. During a marathon round of votes on the coronavirus relief bill earlier this month, all 50 Republican senators voted for a resolution opposing a carbon tax.

Palicz said there’s political risk in pushing policies that would raise energy costs, especially during an economic slowdown. Imposing a tax that would touch nearly every American would be out of step with Biden’s attempt to present himself as an ally to working-class families, he said.

“During the election, this is something Biden tried his best to run away from,” Palicz said. “Since day one [in office], he has clearly taken steps that are not aligned with that.”

And Democrats as a whole don’t see eye-to-eye with the business groups and think tanks that are nudging tax-curious Republicans to embrace carbon pricing. Any carbon tax bill is likely to be packed with spending — such as money for electric vehicles and to help pollution-stricken communities — that progressives will demand in exchange for their support.

“We’ve made it clear to all of our colleagues that in order to have [a carbon price], it can’t be the only thing,” said a Democratic aide with the Senate Budget Committee. “In the past, the folks who may have been advocating for a price on carbon have made me feel that is the end-all, be-all, and I’m no longer hearing a carbon tax is an end-all, be-all.”

Progressives’ wariness of a carbon tax stems from fears that not only is it too modest a move to reduce emissions, but that it fails to address pollution that disproportionately affects low-income and communities of color.

Those environmental justice concerns have gained traction nationally in recent years, and Biden has put them at the center of his climate and environment platform.

“You have to evaluate [a carbon fee] as to the impact and the history that it’s had with [environmental justice] communities. And it’s not always been good, to say the least,” House Natural Resources Chair Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) said in an interview.

A carbon tax bill sweetened with goodies to attract the reluctant left could come at the expense of Republicans who are more likely to be swayed by the economic argument that a simple fee is more efficient and provides more certainty to industry.

“I don’t think anyone could tell you what the outcome looks like if that’s the path that they go down,” said Joseph Majkut, director of climate policy with the Niskanen Center, which supports a carbon tax.

Winning at least a few Republican votes could be key. Manchin, chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, on Feb. 4 said he was, “right now, no,” on a carbon tax. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), as a member of the House in 2018, was one of seven Democrats who voted in favor of a resolution declaring carbon taxing “detrimental” to the economy.

Neither Manchin nor Sinema have weighed in on an emerging alternative, a clean energy standard that would require a percentage of retail electricity sales to come from non- or low-emitting sources. That approach would affect the power sector and leave emissions from transportation — the nation’s largest contributor to greenhouse gases — untouched.

Rep. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.), chair of the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee responsible for climate policy and a supporter of economy-wide carbon pricing, said he wouldn’t rule out other options, such as a clean energy standard.

“We need to make certain that we can pass whatever ideas we bring forward, and we’re going to do that with public sentiment behind us,” he told reporters.

Senate Democratic aides said they have had initial discussions with Republican offices on a clean energy standard and received few hard nos. They note the policy has received bipartisan support in prior years, notably Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) Clean Energy Standard Act S20 from 2010.

They also point to a National Academies of Sciences report this month that endorsed both policies in pursuit of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

“We need to work through those ways and find the way that works best and can pass into law and point us towards 1.5 degrees” Celsius, Whitehouse said.

Anthony Adragna contributed to this report.

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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