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Real eState

A Bright Spot in Commercial Real Estate: Retail Shops

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With all the recent worries about defaults and higher interest rates leading to lower valuations in commercial real estate, investors may wonder if it is worth considering the asset class in the current environment. However, commercial real estate is a broad definition with many asset classes including office, multifamily, industrial, retail, healthcare, hospitality, etc. 

We believe active management is important with any asset class, especially when it comes to security selection.  That is why we’ve avoided most commercial real estate asset classes–with the exception of industrials, where we are overweight.  For example, we made the case back in November 2022, asking is Mexico the next China 

To help understand our investment logic, here are some tailwinds and headwinds facing owners of industrial real estate: 

Short Term Tailwinds  

  • New supply is constrained due to tight development financing & increased labor costs.  
  • Inventory rebuild across industries (especially with change from just-in-time to just-in-case inventory).  
  • Net absorption is skewed towards Class-A space, which is still capacity-constrained. 

Short Term Headwinds 

  • US vacancies are below long-term averages. Reversion to the mean suggests there may be some short-term normalization of trends. (3.4% vs. 6.8%, respectively) 
  • Rationalization of overcapacity brought on by higher levels of demand related to COVID. 
  • Near-term valuations facing the impact of lower appraisals due to higher discount rates to value new, longer leases, despite steady cash flows. 
  • Refinancing risk at higher rates impairs profitability. 

Long Term Tailwinds 

  • Continued consumer spending to drive increased warehousing needs. (eCommerce) 
  • Global movement to onshore manufacturing locally. 
  • Approximately 28% of available US warehouse space is almost 50 years old, considered technologically obsolete, and likely to be replaced. 
  • Supply chain diversification. 

Long-Term Headwinds 

  • Local and environmental opposition to new projects. 
  • Other competing real asset classes become more attractive over time as issues resolve. 
  • Move to longer leases (5 Yr. vs. 3 Yr.) to decrease the frequency of rent increases in the industrial space. 

To summarize, we believe supply will continue to be constrained, movement to Class-A space will require new building, demand will persist due to manufacturing onshoring and eCommerce, and the supply chain diversification will continue to drive long-term demand in industrial real estate.  

There may be short term headwinds, but overall, the space should continue to grow and presents a potential benefit to an investor’s portfolio. 

 

 

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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