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A CIBC analyst’s top picks and investment themes in the Canadian oil patch for the rest of 2023

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Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow

BofA Securities foreign exchange strategist Howard Du thinks recent weakness in the loonie is overdone,

“Short-term: August USD/CAD rally has overshot vs cross-asset factors and we expect the pair to normalize lower over the next month… Specifically, we see [USDCAD] decline to 1.33 [CAD$0.752] by the end of Q3 … The month-to-date broad USD rally has been aggressive, particularly vs the high-beta currencies in G10. For USDCAD, the pace of the rally from July 31 would rank at 94th percentile since 1999. The CAD has notably weakened despite higher crude oil price in the first half of August. CA yields has increased with US yields in both nominal and real terms. So relative to interest rate differentials, current USDCAD spot appears to be too rich … s financial conditions tightened on the back of US Treasury selloff, risky asset had sold off. But compared to the decline for the S&P 500, CAD weakness also looks overshot”

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CIBC energy analyst Dennis Fong discussed the most important themes for the second half of the year,

“At a high level, we prefer companies with stronger balance sheets and resilient margins which could protect free cash flow generation from oil price volatility. We believe the Canadian large-cap companies still provide value for investors given the pace of de-leveraging and capital allocation plans which will eventually shift all free cash flow towards shareholder returns. We view there to be four broad themes that should guide investor positioning through H2/23 and 2024 … OPEC+ voluntary production cut outweighs recession concerns … Cost savings through efficiency improvements will continue to be a focus … Portfolio repositioning. As concerns around an economic recession moderated, we saw an increased interest in names with perceived higher torque to the oil price … Quarter-to-date crack spreads have moved above historical five-year average”

Mr. Fong has “outperformer” ratings on Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T), Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T) and Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T).

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CIBC economist Benjamin Tal published Counting heads in Canada – a conundrum which argues that undercounted population growth is contributing to the housing affordability crisis,

“Lately there has been a growing focus on the rapid increase in the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) in general, and foreign students in particular. In the following note, we suggest that the official number of NPRs that is widely quoted and used for planning purposes undercounts the actual number of NPRs residing in Canada by close to one million. That means that any policy aimed at capping the number of NPRs is more urgent than perceived … In 2013, the official forecast and the base for planning was that the Canadian population would reach 38.7 million in 2023. No less than 1.1 million of that 1.5 million forecast miss was due to a much larger than expected increase in the number of NPRs, and most of the remaining miss was due to stronger than expected immigration. Translating that figure into housing demand, that miss is equivalent to more than 2 years of building capacity … That’s a big number. But it turns out that the real number is much bigger… But two measurement issues related to the counting of NPRs suggest that the size of the miss might be closer to 2.5 million — a full million larger than the reported miss”

“Counting heads in Canada — a conundrum” – CIBC Economics

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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