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A Plethora Of Bearish Factors Push Oil Prices Down

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On Thursday, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices experienced a 2% decline, reaching a one-week low. The drop then continued on Friday morning. This drop can be attributed to several interconnected factors that impact supply and demand including inflation, Federal Reserve policy, the US debt ceiling, OPEC+ projections, and inventories.

US Debt Ceiling Standoff Raises Concerns of a Potential Recession

One significant factor contributing to the decline in oil prices is the political standoff over the US debt ceiling. This standoff has raised concerns about a potential recession in the world’s largest oil consumer, as it creates uncertainties and dampens investor sentiment. Furthermore, rising US jobless claims and weak Chinese economic data have added to market anxieties, resulting in the lowest closing prices for the benchmark since May 4.

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Strong US Dollar and Uncertainties Pose Obstacles for Oil Markets

The strong US Dollar is another factor affecting crude oil prices. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive in other countries, reducing demand and putting downward pressure on prices. Moreover, uncertainties related to recent banking issues that could lead to a credit crunch across the oil industry, and the persistent possibility of a recession pose significant obstacles for the oil markets.

Federal Reserve’s Pause on Interest Rate Hikes Impacts Oil Demand

The strengthening dollar data has supported the case for the Federal…

On Thursday, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices experienced a 2% decline, reaching a one-week low. The drop then continued on Friday morning. This drop can be attributed to several interconnected factors that impact supply and demand including inflation, Federal Reserve policy, the US debt ceiling, OPEC+ projections, and inventories.

US Debt Ceiling Standoff Raises Concerns of a Potential Recession

One significant factor contributing to the decline in oil prices is the political standoff over the US debt ceiling. This standoff has raised concerns about a potential recession in the world’s largest oil consumer, as it creates uncertainties and dampens investor sentiment. Furthermore, rising US jobless claims and weak Chinese economic data have added to market anxieties, resulting in the lowest closing prices for the benchmark since May 4.

Strong US Dollar and Uncertainties Pose Obstacles for Oil Markets

The strong US Dollar is another factor affecting crude oil prices. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive in other countries, reducing demand and putting downward pressure on prices. Moreover, uncertainties related to recent banking issues that could lead to a credit crunch across the oil industry, and the persistent possibility of a recession pose significant obstacles for the oil markets.

Federal Reserve’s Pause on Interest Rate Hikes Impacts Oil Demand

The strengthening dollar data has supported the case for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes. However, it has not generated expectations of year-end rate cuts. Higher interest rates can weigh on oil demand by increasing borrowing costs and exerting pressure on economic growth. It is important to note that an extended period of high interest rates could place additional stress on banks, as stated by Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari. This delicate balance between interest rates, inflation, and economic factors plays a crucial role in shaping oil prices.

Oil Market Disregards OPEC+ Projections Amid Economic Risks            

On the demand side, the oil market has largely disregarded OPEC+ projections for 2023. OPEC+ projected an increase in oil demand in China, the world’s largest oil importer. However, the market remains cautious due to potential economic risks, including the US debt ceiling battle. Economic uncertainties can impact oil demand and lead to fluctuations in prices.

Iraq’s Request for Oil Exports Adds Supply Dynamics to the Market

Turning to the supply side, Iraq has officially requested Turkey to resume oil exports through a pipeline running from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. If approved, this could contribute an additional 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global crude flows. Changes in supply levels have a direct impact on oil prices, as they affect the overall market dynamics and balance between supply and demand.

Fluctuations in Inventories Impact Crude Oil Prices

In terms of inventories, fluctuations in crude oil stocks can influence prices. An unexpected build in US crude oil inventories, along with lower crude imports and softer export growth in China, has affected prices in recent sessions. On the other hand, the decline in US gasoline inventories and the rise in jet fuel demand ahead of the summer driving season have somewhat limited the decline in crude oil prices.

Analysts Forecast Range for Oil Prices in 2023

Looking ahead, some analysts forecast oil prices to range from $75 to $95 during 2023, considering fundamental supply and demand dynamics. The anticipation of a rally as the summer driving season approaches reflects expectations of increased demand for transportation fuels.

Investor Sentiment Tied to US Debt Ceiling Talks

Investors are closely monitoring talks on raising the US government’s debt ceiling, as it has implications for the overall economic stability. Concerns about a potential default have led to apprehension on Wall Street, affecting investor sentiment. However, once a compromise is reached, analysts believe that investors will be encouraged to act, leading to a rally in stocks and providing support for oil prices. Additionally, inflation data showing a slight easing could provide cover for the Federal Reserve to pause further interest rate increases, which can have an impact on oil demand.

Weekly Technical Analysis

Weekly June WTI Crude Oil

WTI

Trend Indicator Analysis             

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. It turned down last week when sellers took out the previous main bottom at $64.58.

A trade through $63.64 will extend the downtrend. A move through $83.38 will change the main trend to up.

Retracement Level Analysis

The contract range is $37.04 to $100.48. Its retracement zone at $68.76 to $61.27 is the major support. The market tested this area last week and held its ground at $63.64, with enough buying coming in to reestablish the zone as support.

The minor range is $83.38 to $63.64. Its retracement zone at $73.51 to $75.84 is resistance. It stopped the rally this week at $73.89. The market would have to overcome this zone to get excited about the upside.

Weekly Technical Forecast

The direction of the June WTI crude oil market the week-ending May 19 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor 50% level at $73.51.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $73.51 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of the minor Fibonacci level at $75.84. Overcoming this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the resistance cluster at $82.06 – $83.38 the next target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $73.51 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the major 50% level at $68.76. This level has to hold or prices could collapse into the support cluster at $63.64 – $61.27.

Short-Term Outlook:  Cautious Amid Debt Ceiling Worries

Taking into consideration all the factors driving the price action at this time, one has to conclude that the short-term forecast for oil prices suggests a mixed outlook. The decline in crude oil prices, driven by the US debt ceiling standoff, weak economic data, and a strong US Dollar, has created uncertainties and dampened investor sentiment. However, the anticipation of a compromise being reached on the debt ceiling and a slight easing in inflation data could provide support for oil prices.

In terms of supply dynamics, the potential addition of 450,000 barrels per day through Iraq’s request to resume oil exports could impact the overall market balance. Fluctuations in inventories, with unexpected builds in US crude oil stocks but declining gasoline inventories, also contribute to the complex price dynamics.

Looking ahead, analysts forecast a range for oil prices in 2023 between $75 and $95, taking into account fundamental supply and demand dynamics. This forecast considers the anticipation of increased demand for transportation fuels during the upcoming summer driving season.

Investor sentiment remains tied to the ongoing US debt ceiling talks, as a compromise and resolution could encourage market participants and potentially lead to a rally in stocks, providing support for oil prices.

It’s important to note that the oil market has disregarded OPEC+ projections for increased oil demand in China, given the prevailing economic risks, including the US debt ceiling battle.

Overall, the short-term forecast for oil prices suggests a cautious outlook, with various factors contributing to price fluctuations. Monitoring developments in the US debt ceiling discussions, inflation data, supply dynamics, and investor sentiment will be crucial in understanding the future trajectory of oil prices.

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Suncor to cut 1500 jobs by end of year, employees informed Thursday – CTV News Calgary

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Suncor Energy Inc. says it will cut 1,500 jobs by the end of the year in an effort to reduce costs and improve the company’s lagging financial performance.

Spokeswoman Sneh Seetal confirmed the cuts, saying they will be spread across the organization and will affect both employees and contractors.

Seetal says employees were informed of the cuts in a companywide email from Suncor CEO Rich Kruger earlier this afternoon.

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Suncor has been under pressure from shareholders – including activist investor Elliott Investment Management – to improve its financial and share price performance, which has lagged its peers.

Kruger, the former CEO of Imperial Oil Ltd., took the reins at Suncor earlier this spring and has been tasked with turning around the oilsands giant.

Suncor employs people across the country, in the U.S., and the U.K. Its corporate head office is located in Calgary.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 1, 2023.

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Amazon ordered to pay more than $30M for privacy violations related to Alexa, Ring devices – CBC News

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Amazon agreed Wednesday to pay a $25 million US civil penalty to settle Federal Trade Commission (FTC) allegations it violated a child privacy law and deceived parents by keeping for years kids’ voice and location data recorded by its popular Alexa voice assistant.

Separately, the company agreed to pay $5.8 million US in customer refunds for alleged privacy violations involving its doorbell camera, Ring.

The Alexa-related action orders Amazon to overhaul its data deletion practices and impose stricter, more transparent privacy measures. It also obliges the tech giant to delete certain data collected by its internet-connected digital assistant, which people use for everything from checking the weather to playing games and queueing up music.

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“Amazon’s history of misleading parents, keeping children’s recordings indefinitely, and flouting parents’ deletion requests violated COPPA (the Child Online Privacy Protection Act) and sacrificed privacy for profits,” Samuel Levine, the FTC consumer protection chief, said in a statement. The 1998 law is designed to shield children from online harms.

FTC Commissioner Alvaro Bedoya said in a statement that “when parents asked Amazon to delete their kids’ Alexa voice data, the company did not delete all of it.”

LISTEN | Is Alexa struggling financially?

The Current22:19Amazon losing billions on Alexa voice assistant


The agency ordered the company to delete inactive child accounts as well as certain voice and geolocation data. That order will apply to Canadian customers, as well, the company confirmed in an email to CBC News. 

Amazon kept the kids’ data to refine its voice recognition algorithm, the artificial intelligence behind Alexa, which powers Echo and other smart speakers, Bedoya said.

The FTC complaint sends a message to all tech companies who are “sprinting to do the same” amid fierce competition in developing AI datasets, he said.

Amazon said last month that it has sold more than a half-billion Alexa-enabled devices globally and that use of the service increased 35 per cent last year.

A black device with the word Amazon on it hangs beside a door
Amazon has agreed to pay $5.8 million US in customer refunds for alleged privacy violations involving its Ring doorbell camera. . (Jessica Hill/The Associated Press)

Hackers able to access Ring accounts

In the Ring case, the FTC says Amazon’s home security camera subsidiary let employees and contractors access consumers’ private videos and provided lax security practices that enabled hackers to take control of some accounts.

Amazon bought California-based Ring in 2018, and many of the violations alleged by the FTC predate the acquisition. Under the FTC’s order, Ring is required to pay $5.8 million US that would be used for consumer refunds.

Amazon said it disagreed with the FTC’s claims on both Alexa and Ring and denied violating the law. But it said the settlements “put these matters behind us.”

“Our devices and services are built to protect customers’ privacy, and to provide customers with control over their experience,” the Seattle-based company said.

In addition to the fine in the Alexa case, the proposed order prohibits Amazon from using deleted geolocation and voice information to create or improve any data product. The order also requires Amazon to create a privacy program for its use of geolocation information.

The proposed orders must be approved by federal judges.

FTC commissioners had unanimously voted to file the charges against Amazon in both cases.

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Stocks slide as debt ceiling vote looms, jobs data stays hot : Stock market news today

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US stocks closed lower Wednesday as investors kept a watchful eye on the prospects for the debt-limit deal in an expected House floor vote. Meanwhile, strong US jobs data and China’s economic woes pressured global markets.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.60% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped 0.40% or more than 130 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 0.63%.

US bond yields weakened as investors fretted over the potential impact of the debt-limit deal and reviewed the release of fresh jobs data. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury dropped to 3.62%. The two-year note yields, which are more rate sensitive, slipped to 4.3%, while that on the 30-year bond dropped to 3.84%.

Equities lost steam as the Labor Department reported the number of job openings rose to over 10.1 million, up from economists’ expectations of 9.4 million openings.

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The figures underscores “the tightness in the labor market is unlikely to fall off a cliff but rather continue downward on a bumpy path,” Oxford Economics wrote in a note on Wednesday. “While there are some concerns over the veracity of the JOLTS survey due to historically low response rates, the upshot remains that labor market strength remains robust.”

In light of recent economic data, markets are pricing in an increase of 25 basis points in interest rates from the Fed at policymakers’ meeting on June 13-14. On the commodities side, the dollar index rose, while crude oil slid below $70 a barrel.

Still, investors are still very keen on the latest developments in Washington. The debt ceiling agreement negotiated by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy passed its first key test on Tuesday when it gained approval from the Republican-led House Rules Committee despite opposition from hard-liners. That cleared the way for the deal to go before the House on Wednesday.

The clock is ticking down, as Congress must race to pass the deal to avoid a catastrophic default by June 5. That so-called X-Date is when the US will run out of money to pay its bills, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned.

 

Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks to the press after a meeting with President Joe Biden on debt ceiling in Washington, D.C., the United States, May 22, 2023. The United States is Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks to the press after a meeting with President Joe Biden on debt ceiling in Washington, D.C., the United States, May 22, 2023. The United States is
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks to the press after a meeting with President Joe Biden on debt ceiling in Washington, D.C., the United States, May 22, 2023. (Photo by Aaron Schwartz/Xinhua via Getty Images)

Meanwhile, both Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker signaled Wednesday that the central bank could pause rate hikes at its next policy meeting. Separately, the economy showed signs of cooling as hiring and inflation slowing, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.

Elsewhere, China’s factory activity slumped to its weakest level for a second straight month, another sign its post-pandemic economic recovery is losing steam. Asian markets tumbled after the release of the data.

On the housing front, mortgage demand dropped to its lowest level since March, while refinancing activity also dampened to another low, the MBA data showed Wednesday.

Meanwhile, in corporate news, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) sank more than 7% after the company posted a revenue miss in its second quarter earnings and slashed its full-year sales guidance.

Still, the run-up in stocks linked to AI was losing momentum, after the buzz around the technology helped boosted the Nasdaq 100 Index (^NDX) on Tuesday. Shares of ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) was flat, while C3.ai, Inc. (AI) dipped more than 8% Wednesday.

In single-stock moves, SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) shares rallied more than 15% in the wake of the debt ceiling deal. The bill would reinstate government student loan repayments, benefiting the online personal finance company.

Shares of HP Inc. (HPQ) sank more than 5% after the computing giant posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Tuesday, but reported sales that fell more than analysts estimated.

Intel Corporation (INTC) shares rose more than 4% after the chipmaker said current quarter revenue is on track to be at the high end of its guidance.

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Dani Romero is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @daniromerotv

 

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