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A second coronavirus lockdown in Canada? Experts discuss the likelihood – Global News

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Like many things coronavirus-related, the chance Canada will need to tighten restrictions again is hard to predict, according to disease experts.

Ontario, B.C. and Alberta are all seeing cases climb, although the numbers are a far cry from the daily counts in March and April.

Experts aren’t convinced we’re on track for a second lockdown. In fact, some are cautiously optimistic.

Read more:
Lockdowns and a second wave? What the coronavirus pandemic could look like this fall

“It’s less likely to occur this time around because preparations have been made this time,” said Dr. Alon Vaisman, an infectious disease and infection control physician at the University Health Network in Toronto.

“But that doesn’t mean it’s off the table.”

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Recent modelling data from the Public Health Agency of Canada lays out the best- and worst-case scenarios over fall and winter.

The best case: Canada sees multiple small spikes in cases — fluctuating numbers — over the next few months. The worst case: Canada falls into a second wave that overwhelms the health system, followed by smaller spikes over the following months.






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Young people making up majority of new coronavirus cases in Ontario


Young people making up majority of new coronavirus cases in Ontario

The data makes it clear “there’s always the possibility” that things could get worse again, Vaisman said, “but it’s hard to know how likely that will be.”

“This is a back-and-forth thing. Ultimately, people should expect a dynamic situation.”

How could we know?

A second wave of the virus would be the first sign of tightening up again.

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Although there’s no set number of cases that would define a second wave — simply the slope of the curve rising rapidly — there’s “no question” Canada will see some form of one, said Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto.

But for things to shut down, he said the rise in cases would need to be substantial enough that it “overwhelms” the ability to rapidly test and trace contacts.

Read more:
Coronavirus cases could exceed Canada’s health care capacity this fall, officials warn

“That’s the line in the sand,” Furness said. “As soon as we lose that, we’re in trouble. We have uncontrolled spread.”

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Summertime has so far provided a buffer for the virus’s spread, said Furness. As colder conditions force more people inside, cases will likely “bloom,” he said, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Canada will revert to March-level lockdown orders.

Since the pandemic’s onset in the spring, Canada has ramped up testing and contract tracing, secured more personal protective equipment (PPE), enhanced public health measures, increased compliance to those measures and “transformed” its health-care system to handle this type of emergency, Furness said.

There will inevitably be outbreaks, he acknowledged, but that won’t force everyone to shut themselves in.

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“We will be smarter in how we respond and how we defend ourselves against COVID in a way that we just weren’t in March.”






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Coronavirus: New COVID-19 cases reported at some businesses in Toronto malls


Coronavirus: New COVID-19 cases reported at some businesses in Toronto malls

What could happen?

Canada will likely take cues from other countries that have endured somewhat of a second wave, the experts agree.

Places like Spain and France have recently seen large increases in cases, but not in deaths and hospitalizations. It has prompted some tightened restrictions, but nowhere near the curfews and shuttered economies of March and April.

“A lockdown would only be considered if health system capacity gets overwhelmed, which does not seem to be the scenario in European countries, which opened earlier than us,” said Dr. Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto and director of the Centre for Global Health Research at St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto.

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There are a number of factors contributing to this, Jha said, which are being reflected in Canada.

Read more:
Coronavirus prevention crushed Australia’s flu season. Can Canada expect the same?

For one, he said more young people are getting tested and showing up in testing data. There’s also a better understanding of triaging and protecting hospitals and nursing homes.

“Elder folks are exposed less to younger folks now. They’re more isolated,” he said.

Vaisman believes Canada would see a “reverse of phases” if cases spike again, with higher-risk activities being shut down while lower-risk ones are maintained.

It would cascade from there. Should lower-risk things become higher risk as cases continue to climb, more closures could be imposed.

“There’s low-hanging fruit that we can cut out first,” Vaisman said.






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Coronavirus: WHO “fully supports” students returning to school


Coronavirus: WHO “fully supports” students returning to school

Schools a ‘big test’

Schools are a “major variable” in what could worsen the COVID-19 situation in Canada, lending way to more tightened restrictions, said Vaisman.

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“It will be a major test of our system because it essentially introduces a breakage in a lot of people’s bubbles and opens up potential chains of transmission with lots and lots of people,” he said.

“And then we’ll be waiting two or more weeks after the date of opening to really understand the effect of that.”

Some countries have had to close schools a second time when outbreaks swept through classrooms. Israel closed schools two weeks after fully reopening them, as did South Korea and some in Germany.

“Every time you open something up, you’re throwing coins on the risk pile. You’re making that bigger,” Furness said. “If you want a balance, every time you throw something on the risk pile, you need to throw something on the same pile. Opening schools is throwing a lot in the risk pile.”

Read more:
After-school programs an ‘afterthought’ in COVID-19 guidelines, advocates say

Can we avoid it?

The tried-and-true protocols — hand hygiene, mask-wearing, physical distancing — are and will continue to be crucial as Canada heads into fall and winter.

“Mask-wearing is an enormous tool that we have and we’re seeing high compliance,” Furness said. “Compliance tends to go up when things get scary, not down.”

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Bolstering testing is another way to ramp up protections, said Vaisman. He pointed to pressure to expedite Health Canada approval for at-home testing kits and saliva testing as ways to simplify testing and make it more accessible.






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Coronavirus: Canada’s top doctor suggests younger people give COVID Alert app a try


Coronavirus: Canada’s top doctor suggests younger people give COVID Alert app a try

A push to get more Canadians on the country’s coronavirus exposure notification app, Covid Alert, is also an important tactic, said Jha.

The app has been downloaded roughly 2.2 million times in the first month it launched, but just 90 people have logged a COVID-19 diagnosis so far. Experts are worried it’s not enough.

“It’s been poorly promoted,” said Jha. “Where’s the advertising? Why aren’t bars and restaurants trying a ‘no app, no entry’ approach? Without high coverage of the app, it won’t be effective.”

Ultimately, Canadians looking for “light at the end of the tunnel” might have to look past winter when flu season passes and a vaccine draws closer, said Vaisman.

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“There’s no reason why a lockdown can’t happen, but you just have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”

— with files from the Associated Press and Global News’ Leslie Young

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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