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A Stock Investment That Has It All: Constrained Supply, High Demand And A Looming Shortage Of Unknown Proportions – Forbes

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The Wall Street Journal (“Heard on the Street”) describes the situation and prospects perfectly in “Natural-Gas Market Conditions Look Unnatural“:

  • Supply is struggling to catch up to high global demand
  • Inventories needed to meet winter demand surge are abnormally low
  • Uncertainties surrounding winter effects are heightened by climate change unknowns

In this situation, “uncertainties” is the investor’s friend. It means the normal rise in winter demand could be abnormally high. Therefore, curing the winter mismatch will be left up to price, as is now being discussed:

Natural gas falls between the social, environmental and political cracks

The desirability rankings are mostly clear:

  • Solar and wind – yes, absolutely
  • Hydroelectric and nuclear – yes, but…
  • Oil – no, but…
  • Coal – no, absolutely

“Clean-burning” natural gas? Yes? After all, it’s where utilities have gone after coal. And then there are all those home furnaces, stoves and water heaters. And what about the “this vehicle is natural gas fueled” environmental movement? Plus, natural gas is a necessary byproduct from oil production; and there are natural underground storage areas; and large investments have been made in LNG facilities; and LNG shipping is a big and expanding business. Most importantly, all of these benefit the U.S. economy.

Therefore, natural gas probably gets an “okay for now” ranking. So, don’t worry about the discussion of Biden stomping on natural gas anytime soon:

Forbes (9/9): “Natural Gas Producers On Roll, Biden Could Be A Roadblock

The bottom line: The potential stock price gain from a natural gas price rise could be large

Commodity price rises can multiply producer earnings and free cash flows significantly. Even a seasonal boost can ratchet up a company’s financial and operational well-being. Most importantly, the increased funds can allow ramping up future growth prospects.

For stock investors, the benefits can be equally large, even before the results are in. It’s the anticipation of events, especially where there is the possibility of a large windfall, that can boost investor excitement and the stock price in advance of actual results.

In other words, now looks to be a good time to invest in natural gas producers.

Disclosure: Author bought First Trust Natural Gas ETF on September 13

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Here's why investors like Warren Buffett don't like gold as an investment – CNBC

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In this article

Gold is one of the largest financial assets in the world with an average daily trading volume of $183 billion, and its value has seen explosive growth in recent years.

At the start of 2000, gold was priced at just $460 per ounce when adjusted for inflation. By August 2021, that number had ballooned to roughly $1,815 per ounce.

But not all investors are in love with gold. Warren Buffett has spoken out numerous times on his doubts, calling it an asset with “no utility.”

“It doesn’t produce anything and that’s why from a long-term perspective, it’s a hard asset to invest in,” Odyssey Capital Advisors chief investment officer Jason Snipe said. “It’s prudent portfolio management to have maybe a small allocation there but this is not an asset that you want to be heavily entrenched into if you’re looking for long-term yield.”

Since 2011, the S&P 500 has returned more than 16% on an annualized basis. The annualized return for the 10-year Treasury note sat at just over 2% in that time period. Gold, meanwhile, has fallen slightly over the past 10 years.

“Early on, you see strong performance, strong return or yield from commodities such as gold. Generally, as we move into a different cycle, gold is not as great a performer as we move into a normalized environment,” Snipe said.

Whether gold is an effective hedge against market volatility is also widely debated among experts.

“Gold is not necessarily a perfect hedge against inflation but it can be a strategic hedge against inflation,” according to Suki Cooper, executive director of precious metals research at Standard Chartered Bank.

“Various studies have shown us that if gold is held for 12 to 18 months before inflation takes higher and then it’s held for an additional 12 to 18 months while inflation moves higher, it can be a good inflation hedge,” Cooper said. “But if it’s just bought for a short period, let’s say a month, it may not prove to be an effective inflation hedge.”

Watch the video to find out more about how gold performs as an investment.

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Ontario supports investment of $31.5M in Wellington, Perth county businesses – CTV News London

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London, Ont. –

Ontario supports $31.5 million surge within the Southwestern Ontario economy with $2.6 million being invested in Wellington County through the Regional Development Program.

The investment by Wellington County manufacturers, which will build on domestic manufacturing is being supported by the Ontario government, will help to create 71 jobs and retain 150 jobs.

“Through the Regional Development Program, our government is making targeted investments in local manufacturers to help them create good, local jobs,” said Vic Fedeli, Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade in a statement.

“These projects are making a significant impact in communities and economies across the Wellington County region and Southwestern Ontario by helping to secure the private-sector investment that will support strong regional growth.”

The investments are as follows:

  • Weberlane Manufacturing is investing $4.8 million to build a new 115,000 square foot manufacturing facility in Listowel.
  • Nieuwland Feed & Supply is investing $16.2 million to consolidate its production facilities as well as build a second feed mill on the property.
  • Bold Canine is investing $6.5 million to expand and renovate its facility, purchase equipment, and invest in research and development.
  • Wellington Perforated Sheet and Plate is investing $3.9 million to develop new products, and produce more steel parts in-house.

The Regional Development Program for Eastern and Southwestern Ontario was launched by the government in November of 2019.

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U.S. equity portfolio manager explains seven-step investment process – Wealth Professional

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The third step is identifying growth drivers. Sanders carries with him words from an old mentor – ‘always understand what drives top-line revenue’. For example, when Sanders first invested in Amazon back in 2003, when it was $17 a share, online penetration of retail sales in the U.S. was only 3%, but he believed that number was going to grow substantially over time. He met with Jeff Bezos who explained his competitive advantages – widest selection, lowest prices and convenience – completed his analysis and bought the stock. Sanders said: “That’s an example of a company that had a clear growth driver – penetration of its end market with offline retail going online.”

The fourth step is a financial statement analysis, getting into the nitty gritty of the balance sheets from a cash-flow perspective, while the fifth step is a management team assessment. Sanders is not interested in a company’s latest shiny product but instead wants to understand the key assumptions that go into his team’s investment process. ESG factors are also analysed at this stage, including how the board is made up and the compensation model.

Step six is critical and involves Sanders laying out four scenarios – best case, base case, bear, and worst, which are all five-year minimum discounted cash-flow models. The base case is what he thinks the stock is worth today, an estimate of cents on the dollar or intrinsic value. If Sanders believes a stock is worth $100 and it’s trading at $70, it’s 70 cents. He said: “We have this list of companies we’re following, and it’s ranked by cents on the dollar every morning. When stocks get to 70 cents, we recheck the analysis and we buy, and when stocks get up to 100 cents, we sell. That, in a nutshell, is our process.”

Every quarter these values are updated, in step seven, so it’s a moving target, underpinned by deep fundamental research that involves a 10-person team looking at one stock at a time before presenting it the team for debate.

While many investors focus on what is happening that quarter, Sanders told WP he thinks longer term, an approach illustrated by the crash of March 2020. He saw a health crisis, not an issue with the consumer, who ultimately drives the economy. Now in his third market cycle of managing money, the portfolio manager recognized that many elements were actually in good health, from millennials with no mortgages, a housing market at steady levels in the U.S. as it continued its recovery from the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and a banking system that was doing well after 10 years of Federal Reserve stress tests.

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