Isiphethu Semfundo is the only primary school for miles in the upper Mooi valley, a bucolic area in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), the second-most-populous South African province. It educates the children of the rural poor—or at least tries to. For a year it has had no clean water. Nor does it have state-provided transport for its pupils. This abruptly ended after officials were threatened by the owners of private minibuses who wanted the business. A few kids now walk; some cover 20km (12 miles) in a day. But more stay at home. Taking the minibus costs 450 rand ($28) a month, more than the 350-rand welfare grant given to the destitute.
Running schools is the job of the province, which, along with the national government and eight of South Africa’s nine provinces, is controlled by the African National Congress (ANC). But that has not stopped the mayor of the local municipality, Umngeni, from visiting. Chris Pappas (pictured) listens to teachers and mothers and says he will try to help. He does this in Zulu, the ladies’ mother tongue, which he learnt while growing up on a farm. “Having somebody who can speak their language is very, very important,” says Nene Philpine, the head teacher. “It gives a better and complete understanding.”
Mr Pappas is an unusual politician. He is white in a municipality where three-quarters of residents are black. He is fluent in Zulu (it is rare to find whites who speak South African languages other than English and the Dutch-based Afrikaans). He is 31 years old, roughly half the average age of the country’s cabinet. He is gay. And he is from the Democratic Alliance (DA), the official opposition, whose stronghold is in and around Cape Town. A year ago Mr Pappas became the first DA mayor to win an outright majority in a KZN municipality. His story is revealing—and encouraging—about the state of South African politics.
South Africans still vote largely along racial lines. The ANC usually wins a majority of the black electorate, while the DA takes most of the votes cast by the two largest minorities: whites and “coloureds”, or mixed-race South Africans. Yet when South Africans irrespective of ethnicity are asked what matters most to them, polls suggest that they care more about jobs, corruption, crime and electricity blackouts than about race relations.
Mr Pappas’s election in late 2021 shows it is possible for talented candidates to win support across the old divisions. Black voters in Umngeni, like those across the country, “feel betrayed by the ANC”, he says. The mayor deliberately ran a “localised campaign” that promised tangible improvements but not “miracles”. Though his narrow victory depended on DA voters turning out in relatively high numbers while many ex-ANC supporters stayed home, he also needed to lift his party’s share of the black vote from 8.7% to 11.7%.
The success of Mr Pappas and his (black) deputy, Sandile Mnikathi, suggests that the monstrous damage caused by the ANC is reversible. Until the DA took over, the municipality had never run a budget surplus. Like most ANC-run local governments, its financial reporting was deemed inadequate by the auditor-general, a watchdog. Over the past year Mr Pappas has got Umngeni into the black by freezing hiring and stopping vanity projects. “There will be far fewer projects where politicians can go around and cut ribbons,” Mr Pappas tells provincial officials. This is freeing up funds for new schemes.
One involves contracting out simple jobs, such as cutting the grass, to individuals. That sounds basic but it undermines the way ANC councils typically operate, awarding large tenders to politically connected cronies, often from outside the municipality, to get kickbacks. The municipality is also doing more to help the poor, for instance by making more households eligible for some free electricity.
The mayor’s brand of politics is not flashy. But he argues that the simple act of doing what you said you would do is vital in a young democracy. “South Africans have lost faith in the democratic system as a means for change,” he says. A poll in 2021 found that two-thirds of South Africans “would be willing to give up elections” if an unelected government could provide security, housing and jobs.
Mr Pappas’s optimism is welcome. South Africans have been ground down by almost 29 years of ANC misrule. Black voters have become increasingly apathetic. Some have given up voting, while many whites retreat into their affluent bubbles. “That’s the problem with South Africa,” says Mr Pappas. “Four hundred people moaning on WhatsApp and no one doing anything.” If modern South Africa’s next big transition, from ANC hegemony to coalition governments, is to work, it will need more of this can-do spirit.
South Africa could also do with more whites who can speak African languages. When he was in prison, Nelson Mandela encouraged blacks to learn Afrikaans to understand “the language of the oppressor”. Later, he saw it as an emollient gesture: when he spoke to Afrikaners in their language it went “straight to their hearts”, he said. The power of language in politics is patent when you hear Mr Pappas conversing in Zulu. “The ability to listen [in Zulu] is more important than the ability to speak,” he adds. In this age of populism, it is a valuable lesson. ■
Biden tells Israel to ‘walk away’ from judicial reforms, Netanyahu responds saying Israel rejected ‘pressure from abroad’.
United States President Joe Biden has told Israel it “cannot continue” pushing ahead with deeply controversial judicial reforms — now on hold — that have prompted months of unrest — comments that led Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to say he does not make decisions based on pressure from abroad.
Biden’s comments on Tuesday came as Netanyahu was being accused by opponents of riding roughshod over Israeli democracy in an attempt to strengthen his own power, leading to paralysing protests and strikes across Israel.
“Like many strong supporters of Israel I’m very concerned. … They cannot continue down this road, and I’ve sort of made that clear,” Biden told reporters during a visit to the state of North Carolina.
“Hopefully the prime minister [Netanyahu] will act in a way that he will try to work out some genuine compromise, but that remains to be seen,” Biden said, adding he was not considering inviting the Israeli leader to the White House, at least “not in the near term”.
Speaking later in Washington, DC, Biden called on Netanyahu’s administration to drop the controversial judiciary law.
“I hope they walk away from it,” he told reporters.
Netanyahu quickly issued a statement in response to Biden, the Reuters news agency reported.
“Israel is a sovereign country which makes its decisions by the will of its people and not based on pressures from abroad, including from the best of friends,” he said.
Netanyahu said his administration was striving to make reforms “via broad consensus”.
“I have known President Biden for over 40 years, and I appreciate his longstanding commitment to Israel,” Netanyahu said.
He said the Israel-US alliance is unbreakable “and always overcomes the occasional disagreements between us”.
On Monday, Israel’s President Isaac Herzog called on Netanyahu and the ruling coalition to halt its judicial changes plan, “for the sake of the unity of the people of Israel, for the sake of responsibility”.
The appeal on Monday by the head of state, who normally does not get involved in politics, underlines the alarm that the proposals have caused and comes after a dramatic night of protests across Israel on Sunday following the sacking of the country’s defence minister.
Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets in cities across Israel in a spontaneous outburst of anger after Netanyahu fired his defence minister for challenging his judicial overhaul plan.
Fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant had been the first senior member of the ruling Likud party to speak out against the reforms, saying the deep divisions were threatening to weaken Israel’s military.
On Tuesday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will table the federal government’s budget, and the stakes could not be higher for the government.
Public assessments of the government’s performance and how they feel about the Prime Minister haven’t been much lower than they are today. Despite this, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied in our latest measure of vote intention.
In our most recent national omnibus survey conducted from March 17 to 21, I asked 1,963 adults a few questions to gauge their economic outlook and how they feel about the government’s performance on a series of economic, fiscal, and pocketbook issues. The results suggest a very challenging opinion environment – one that I think the government and the Prime Minister desperately need to shift.
Here’s what I’m seeing:
The overall economic outlook isn’t that bad right now, but it’s not great either. When we ask Canadians to estimate whether the economy will improve, get worse, or stay about the same over the next 12 months, almost half think it is going to get worse but only 15% say it will get a lot worse. About 1 in 4 are optimistic things will improve over that time period.
Government Strengths and Weaknesses?
When we ask Canadians to evaluate the performance of the federal government and the Prime Minister in several areas, the government gets fairly good grades for its handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for representing the country internationally, and for working with the provinces. In each of those, half or more feel the government’s performance is at least acceptable.
It gets what I feel are middling grades for running an ethical government, managing the economy, and responding to the crisis in healthcare. On these, about 4 in 10 feel the government is doing at least an acceptable job.
But on two items in particular, the government is seen as severely underperforming – addressing the rising cost of living and making housing more affordable and accessible. On both, about 1 in 4 think the government is doing ok or better while two-thirds think it’s doing a poor or terrible job.
Even among 2021 Liberal voters, the cost of living and housing are challenging issues for the government. 4 in 10 past Liberal voters say the government isn’t doing even acceptably on those issues.
Part of the problem facing the government right now is its lack of narrative – especially an economic one. Case in point, when we ask Canadians whether they agree or disagree that “the federal government has a clear economic plan to grow the economy” only 23% agree, including 4% who strongly agree. In contrast, 42% disagree, 22% neither agree nor disagree and 13% are unsure.
I wish I had comparable data from previous years or previous governments, but these numbers feel low. If I was advising the Finance Minister, having only 1 in 4 people inclined to think you have a clear plan to grow the economy is a problem, and a serious liability, especially when people are feeling anxious and uncertain about the economy right now.
But the crosstabs provide even more concern. For example, those in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec are no more likely to think the government has a clear plan than those in other regions. And only 51% of Liberal supporters, those who say they would vote Liberal today, think the government has a clear economic plan.
But it gets worse for the Liberals…
When we ask all Canadians which party they feel will do best on several issues, the Liberals only have a slight advantage on one – dealing with climate change and the environment. Even when it comes to “making childcare affordable” – an issue that dominated the 2021 federal budget – the Liberals are basically tied with the NDP and only 7-points ahead of the Conservatives.
These results underscore both the weakness of the Liberal government’s brand on economic issues and the opportunity it has in this budget to start to move these numbers.
One budget alone won’t fix the problem, but if the government uses it as an opportunity to start talking about pocketbook issues and the economy more, they may be able to reverse some of these numbers.
I think the problem is one of empathy and clarity. The federal government and its senior leaders aren’t connecting with people and empathizing with their day-to-day struggles. And there hasn’t been a clear economic narrative that people recall. With only 23% of Canadians believing the government has a clear economic plan, the budget presents an opportunity for the Liberal government to articulate its vision for economic growth and stability. Demonstrating a coherent strategy to address Canadians’ economic anxieties could help regain public trust.
Yes, the Conservatives have a natural advantage on economic issues. But it hasn’t always been that way. Tomorrow’s budget will either demonstrate a shift in strategy and approach, or it will reinforce what people already think.
Don’t miss any of our research and analysis, sign up for our weekly newsletter.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,963 Canadian adults from March 17 to 21, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, right, tries on new shoes in Ottawa on Monday. Ms. Freeland has clearly signalled the federal budget’s main elements in recent remarks.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s 2023 budget will announce plans to save about $7-billion over five years through cuts to federal travel and reduced outsourcing, with a particular focus on using fewer management consultants, according to a senior government official.
The Globe is not identifying the official, because they were not authorized to be named when discussing the contents of the budget. The savings represent one side of what will be a challenging political balancing act for the government as it presents this year’s spending plan on Tuesday.
Ms. Freeland’s budget will aim to show that the government is focused on fiscal responsibility after posting massive deficits during the pandemic. At the same time, the plan will promote billions in increased spending in areas such as dental care, direct support for low-income Canadians, and a major package of new programs to boost the clean economy.
The government’s decision to cut back on outsourcing follows a series of reports by The Globe and Mail that highlighted how federal spending in this area – officially called professional and special services – has spiked under the Liberals, from $8.4-billion in 2015-16 to an estimated $21.4-billion this current fiscal year.
Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux recently reported that while federal spending on management consultants is only 5 per cent of that total, it is a category that has grown by 95 per cent under the Trudeau government.
Mr. Giroux has questioned why spending on outsourcing has increased while the size of the federal public service has jumped by 28 per cent since 2017.
The government operations committee is currently engaged in three separate studies of the growth in federal outsourcing, including one on management consulting firms such as McKinsey & Co. and another on the ArriveCan app, which is on pace to cost over $54-million and was built through extensive use of outside contractors.
The savings on outsourcing and travel will be worth about $7-billion over five years and $1.7-billion for each year after that, the official said. The plan is meant to show that Ottawa will exceed last year’s target of finding $6-billion in internal savings over five years.
Another item that will be in the budget, according to the official, is an announcement that the government will move ahead with reforms to the alternative minimum tax. The AMT, which is intended to prevent excessive use of deductions by providing an alternative way for wealthy taxpayers to calculate their obligations, has been in place since 1986. The 2021 Liberal campaign platform and 2022 fall economic statement both said it needs to be updated to ensure wealthy people can’t excessively lower their overall tax bills.
Companies will be able to use the 30-per-cent tax credit to offset the cost of equipment for mining and processing critical minerals, which are in high demand as the global economy seeks to expand the use of renewable energy and electric vehicles.
The budget will also include an extension of the six-month increase to the GST rebate, which temporarily doubled the amount sent to recipients starting in the fall. The GST rebate is a payment targeted toward lower-income Canadians. It is meant to help offset the costs of paying sales taxes.
The government plans to promote the extension as a “grocery rebate,” even though many grocery items are exempt from sales tax. There will be no obligation on recipients to spend the money on groceries.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who is seeking support for lower-income Canadians in Tuesday’s budget, responded to the grocery-themed rebate plan after it was reported Monday by CBC News.
“It looks like one of the things we’ve asked for is going to be there,” he told reporters on Parliament Hill. “We still want to see confirmation of the dental-care expansion to include seniors, people living with disabilities, and kids 18 and under. We really want this budget to save money for people.”
In public comments over the past few weeks, Ms. Freeland, who is also Deputy Prime Minister, has clearly signalled the budget’s main elements.
The government will “invest aggressively” in various clean-energy programs, partly to compete with massive new tax breaks and other incentives that were announced last year in the United States through the Inflation Reduction Act and other policies. The budget will also lay out a detailed spending plan for increased health transfers to the provinces and territories, which were announced in February.
A third category of spending will be under the heading of affordability measures, partly in response to cost-of-living pressures driven by inflation. This will include the extension of the GST credit increase and an expanded dental-care plan, as called for by the NDP, which is supporting the minority Liberal government in exchange for action on a list of policy priorities.
Lana Payne, president of Unifor, which represents thousands of Canadian autoworkers, met with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last week just ahead of the budget. She said in an interview that U.S. policies to encourage the manufacturing and purchasing of electric vehicles and other emission-reducing measures are a “game changer” that require a strong Canadian response.
“We are in a very important moment in time, I think, economically speaking,” she said. “We can’t lose track of things right now. Because we’ve had a decade or two in which we haven’t been doing that well in terms of attracting new manufacturing investment to Canada.”
Canadian Chamber of Commerce president Perrin Beatty said he hopes to see a budget with one clear theme.
“The thing that we believe the government needs to focus on is growth. Everything flows from that,” he said. “How do we create the conditions for private-sector-led economic growth in Canada? And that doesn’t mean bringing in massive new spending programs.”
On the tax front, outside experts are not expecting major changes on Tuesday. The government has already signalled that Canadians can expect more detail on tax changes that had been previously announced, but had not yet been launched or fully explained.
These include a proposed 2-per-cent tax on share buybacks for public companies, and the updated alternative minimum tax for high-net-worth individuals.
Last year’s budget said the minimum tax change is aimed at an “unfair” situation in which thousands of wealthy Canadians pay little to no personal income tax each year because of tax credits and deductions.
Brian Ernewein, a former Finance Department assistant deputy minister for tax legislation who is now a senior adviser with KPMG, said he’ll be watching to see if the proposal indirectly limits access to the capital gains exemption for some people.
Currently in Canada, only 50 per cent of a capital gain – such as the profit on a stock sale or an investment property – is taxable. There has long been a policy debate over whether that inclusion rate should be increased. Mr. Ernewein said a minimum tax could have an impact.
“There’s at least some reason I would think for speculating that effectively, maybe not directly, but effectively, they might be changing the tax burden on capital gains through the minimum tax,” he said.
While governments frequently signal a budget’s contents in advance, tax changes are generally closely guarded, given their potential to move markets.
Bruce Ball, vice-president of taxation with the Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada, said he is not expecting major changes to personal or corporate tax rates.
He does, however, expect to see a fair number of smaller tax announcements.
“The government does have a lot of unfinished business, things that they’ve talked about before,” he said, pointing to a promised reform ofbusiness tax incentives for scientific research and experimental development as an example.
By 
