There will likely be more Canadians leaving the workforce than entering it over the next few decades as the country’s senior population grows, according to new data from Statistics Canada. Experts say this will not only exacerbate existing labour shortages, but could result in higher wages for employees.
As of November 2023, there were approximately 2.7 million Canadians aged 15 to 24 who said they were employed, compared to more than 4.4 million people aged 55 and older who had a job. This is based on data from Statistics Canada’s latest labour force survey, which also shows a wide difference in the total population of Canadians 15 to 24 years of age compared to those aged 55 and older, with 4.7 million and 12.4 million people, respectively.
“This means that there are potentially more people prepared to leave the labour force because of retirement than there are entrants to replace these workers,” reads a note prepared by Jane Badets, senior adviser at Environics Analytics, a marketing and analytical services company owned by Bell Canada.
This comes amid new statistics from Environics Analytics that show Canada’s senior population is projected to surpass 11 million by 2043. The data, based on a special analysis for CTV News, paints the senior population as the fastest-growing age group in the country.
LABOUR SHORTAGE LINKED TO AN AGING POPULATION: EXPERTS
Canada is already facing labour shortages across several sectors, largely due to the country’s aging population, said Stephen Tapp, chief economist for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. Over the next few years, more Canadians born between 1946 and 1964 – also known as the baby boomer generation – will be entering their senior years and likely retiring. Without a boost in the number of young Canadians entering the workforce, existing labour gaps will only become larger, Tapp said.
“(We’re) in a more labour-scarce world,” Tapp told CTVNews.ca in a telephone interview. “Things are getting tighter and more difficult … It will get worse over the next 10 to 15 years.”
Businesses of all sizes and across every industry have complained of labour shortages for months, with experts saying Canada’s aging workforce is among the factors to blame. These shortages could lead to a reduction in labour input as well as economic growth, a recent study shows.
Conducted by the RAND Corporation, a research organization based in the United States, the study published in 2016 and revised in 2022 shows a link between an aging workforce and national economic performance. Looking at U.S. data, researchers discovered that with each 10 per cent increase in the fraction of the population aged 60 and older, per-capita GDP decreased by 5.5 per cent.
“Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980 (to) 2010,” the paper reads.
A study published in August by the Fraser Institute, a conservative think tank, came to a similar conclusion. Researchers determined that every 10 per cent increase in the senior population is linked to a slight decrease in the real GDP per capita growth rate.
“This result implies that, in 2021 dollars, Canada’s GDP per capita will be lower by $4,300 (per person) by 2043 under Statistics Canada’s slow-aging population projection scenario and by $11,200 under its fast-aging scenario,” reads a press release issued earlier this year.
A report published by the federal government in 2018 already indicated that Canada was seeing “proportionally fewer young people moving into the workforce to replace the increasing number of older individuals retiring.”
Adding to this is what is expected to be an increase in the number of Canadians who are retiring year-over-year. An analysis of labour force survey data by the left-leaning Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) revealed 73,000 more people retired in the year ending August 2022 compared to the year prior.
HEALTH CARE, CONSTRUCTION WILL NEED MORE WORKERS
Some sectors can expect to see greater labour shortages than others, Tapp said. Amid a lack of nurses and physicians, Canada’s health-care sector is likely to continue facing labour shortages as demand for services increases with an aging population, said Ted McDonald, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick.
“Those labour shortages have direct implications for patient outcomes as well as the broader economy,” McDonald told CTVNews.ca in a telephone interview.
Across all industries, the job vacancy rate was 3.9 per cent as of September, but within the health-care and social assistance sector, that rate was 5.6 per cent. Other sectors with job vacancy rates above the four-per-cent mark include construction, and accommodation and food services, at 4.7 and 6.2 per cent, respectively.
Sectors such as transportation are also likely to experience tighter labour market conditions in the years to come, as they have a higher number of older workers, according to a research note produced by Environics Analytics.
The ratio of older to younger workers varies by occupation, according to the latest census data from 2021. Younger workers include employees aged 25 to 34, whereas older workers includes those aged 55 and above. Examples of some of the occupations that have more older than younger workers include bus drivers and other transit operators. In these occupations, the number of older employees is more than four times higher than the number of younger employees.
Alternatively, the employment rate among 25- to 54-year-olds born in Canada from 2010 to 2021 has seen a two-per-cent increase, according to data from Statistics Canada.
As more of Canada’s older employees exit the workforce, transferring their knowledge to younger workers can become a challenge, Tapp said. As a result, providing adequate training will be key, he said. This not only includes properly training new hires, but also offering technical training to older employees who may choose to continue working beyond the age of 65. Some of these workers may need to be trained on how to use new tools or technology to perform old tasks, he said.
“If we have older people staying in the labour force longer, they’re going to need to stay up on their on their skillsets and to be retrained more frequently than they would have been before,” he said.
WAGES WILL SEE AN INCREASE: EXPERT
Although the road ahead may present challenges for employers facing an increasingly tight market, conditions may be beneficial for workers, said Tapp.
With more Canadians expected to leave the workforce than enter it, workplaces may struggle with obtaining and retaining employees. As an incentive when hiring, they may be more likely to offer increased wage rates to fill gaps within their labour force, he said.
“In any kind of market where there’s fewer workers … the market is going to have to pay them more and their wages are going to be increased to entice them to come in,” he said. “It’s good news if you’re looking from a household perspective … The balance of power has really shifted.”
Tapp said he expects to see wages increase more than two per cent each year to account for annual inflation.
Another trend McDonald expects to see emerge is a continued boom in the use of artificial intelligence technology. Struggles to secure labour will likely prompt more businesses to explore ways to automate processes, he said, which may allow them to hire fewer people.
“You look at alternative ways to continue to operate,” McDonald said.
SOME DELAY RETIREMENT TO KEEP WORKING
While Canada’s workforce may be aging, some employees are continuing to work for longer, data shows. In 2022, nearly one million Canadians were working at the age of 65 or older, making up five per cent of the total labour force in Canada that year, Statistics Canada data shows.
Additionally, the average retirement age in Canada has been steadily increasing over the last two decades. In 2022, the average retirement age was 64.6 years. This is approximately four years older than the average age reported in 1998, which was 60.9.
CTVNews.ca heard from a handful of Canadians who said they are considering delaying their retirement in an effort to save more money – Anita Newson is one of them. Living in Halifax, the 60-year-old said she plans to delay her retirement “indefinitely” due to the elevated cost of living.
“I had hoped to pay off some debt and retire this year but that didn’t happen and I am actually further in debt,” she wrote in an email to CTVNews.ca. “I may not ever retire.”
Instead, Newson said she plans to work for as long as her health permits. In response to the rising cost of daily expenses, Newson said she has begun to scale back spending on birthdays and holidays, as well as eating at restaurants and visiting movie theatres.
“It is becoming more frightening thinking about how I will support myself when and if I retire,” she wrote. “I am a renter and rent goes up every year, pensions do not.”
Newson said she only expects her pension to be able to cover her monthly rent payments, leaving her with no choice but to continue working to cover other expenses such as food.
Stewart Turnbull said he finds himself in a similar position. The 56-year-old living in Victoria, B.C., owns a single-family home and works full-time as a customer service manager. Upon retiring, he planned to sell his home and purchase a smaller property farther from the downtown core, he said.
However, when his three-year mortgage agreement went up for renewal in March, the rise in interest rates increased his payments by about $900 per month, he said.
Turnbull and his partner recently put their home up for sale, but they are unsure of whether they will receive enough money to purchase a new home and comfortably retire at 65. Without much money accumulated in savings, Turnbull said he is not convinced his pension will be enough to cover daily expenses if he stopped working.
“We are trying to leverage whatever equity we have in this house into sort of a rescue mission after interest rates totally annihilated any extra money we had on a monthly basis,” he told CTVNews.ca in a telephone interview. “I hoped it would be worth enough that we could possibly retire but I’m not 100 per cent sure that that’s going to happen.”
Stewart Turnbull, 56, planned to sell his home in Victoria, B.C., and use the extra money to retire. But with increasing mortgage payments as a result of high interest rates, and little money saved up, he’s unsure of whether selling his home will leave him with enough money to comfortably retire at 65. Turnbull, left, appears in this image with his partner. (HANDOUT / CTVNews.ca)
Instead, Turnbull is not planning for retirement and anticipates he will have to continue working beyond the age of 65 to continue to afford his daily expenses. He has also made some lifestyle changes over recent months in order to adjust to the elevated cost of living. This includes hanging his clothes to dry in order to lower his electricity bill, and downgrading his cell phone bill so monthly fees are less expensive, he said.
“It has become clear to me that retirement is no longer an option,” he wrote in an email to CTVNews.ca.
National labour force survey results released in August show that many Canadian workers would delay their retirement if given the option to work fewer hours without affecting their pension. Additionally, employees aged 65 and older have been making up a larger proportion of the total working population in Canada over the last few years, data shows.
In 2010, employed seniors made up three per cent of the total workforce, according to Statistics Canada. Fast forward to 2022, and working seniors accounted for five per cent of all Canadians employed that year.
But according to Tapp, this could be due to the growing number of seniors in Canada as opposed to a shift in retirement patterns.
WHAT ROLE DOES IMMIGRATION PLAY?
In order to fill existing gaps within the country’s workforce throughout the years, the federal government appears to be relying on immigration, McDonald said.
Over the last decade, the share of new and recent immigrant workers grew the most quickly in accommodation and food services, as well as transportation and warehousing, according to 2021 Statistics Canada census data. Other sectors that saw relatively high levels of immigrant workers include manufacturing and health services.
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — Three NASA astronauts whose prolonged space station mission ended with a trip to the hospital last month declined to say Friday which one of them was sick.
Astronauts Matthew Dominick, Michael Barratt and Jeanette Epps publicly discussed their spaceflight for the first time since returning from the International Space Station on Oct. 25. They spent nearly eight months in orbit, longer than expected because of all the trouble with Boeing’s Starliner crew capsule and rough weather, including Hurricane Milton.
Soon after their SpaceX capsule splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida coast, the three were taken to a hospital in nearby Pensacola along with Russian cosmonaut Alexander Grebenkin, who launched with them back in March.
One of the Americans ended up spending the night there for an undisclosed “medical issue.” NASA declined to say who was hospitalized or why, citing medical privacy.
When asked at Friday’s news conference which one had been sick, the astronauts refused to comment. Barratt, a doctor who specializes in space medicine, declined to even describe the symptoms that the unidentified astronaut had.
“Spaceflight is still something we don’t fully understand. We’re finding things that we don’t expect sometimes. This was one of those times and we’re still piecing things together on this,” said Barratt, the only member of the crew who had flown in space before.
Epps said everyone is different in how they respond to space — and gravity.
“That’s the part that you can’t predict,” she said, adding, “Every day is better than the day before.”
Dominick said little things like sitting comfortably in a hard chair took several days to get used to once he returned. He said he didn’t use the treadmill at all during his time in space, as part of an experiment to see what equipment might be pared on a long trip to Mars. The first time he walked was when he got out of the capsule.
The two astronauts who served as test pilots for Boeing’s Starliner — Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams — will remain at the space station until February, flying back with SpaceX. Starliner returned empty in September.
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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — Forty-three monkeys bred for medical research that escaped a compound in South Carolina have been spotted in the woods near the site and workers are using food to try to recapture them, authorities said Friday.
The Rhesus macaques made a break for it Wednesday after an employee at the Alpha Genesis facility in Yemassee didn’t fully lock a door as she fed and checked on them, officials said.
“They are very social monkeys and they travel in groups, so when the first couple go out the door the others tend to just follow right along,” Alpha Genesis CEO Greg Westergaard told CBS News.
Westergaard said his main goal is to have the monkeys returned safely with no other problems. “I think they are having an adventure,” he said.
The monkeys on Friday were exploring the outer fence of the Alpha Genesis compound and are cooing at the monkeys inside, police said in a statement.
“The primates are exhibiting calm and playful behavior, which is a positive indication,” the police statement said, adding company workers are closely watching the monkeys while keeping their distance as they work to safely recapture them.
The monkeys are about the size of a cat. They are all females weighing about 7 pounds (3 kilograms).
Alpha Genesis, federal health officials and police all said the monkeys pose no risk to public health. The facility breeds the monkeys to sell to medical and other researchers.
“They are not infected with any disease whatsoever. They are harmless and a little skittish,” Yemassee Police Chief Gregory Alexander said Thursday.
Authorities still recommend that people who live near the compound about 1 mile (1.6 kilometers) from downtown Yemassee shut their windows and doors and call 911 if they see the monkeys. Approaching them could make them more skittish and harder to capture, officials said.
Eve Cooper, a biology professor at the University of Colorado Boulder who has studied rhesus macaques, said the animals have the potential to be dangerous and urged people to keep their distance.
Rhesus macaques monkeys can be aggressive. And some carry the herpes B virus, which can be fatal to humans, Cooper said.
However, Alpha Genesis states on its website that it specializes in pathogen-free primates. Cooper noted that there are pathogen-free populations of rhesus macaques that have been quarantined and tested.
“I would give them a wide berth,” Cooper said. “They’re unpredictable animals. And they can behave quite aggressively when they’re afraid.”
Alpha Genesis provides primates for research worldwide at its compound about 50 miles (80 kilometers) northeast of Savannah, Georgia, according to its website.
Locally, it is known as “the monkey farm.” And there is more amusement than panic around Yemassee and its population of about 1,100 just off Interstate 95 about 2 miles from Auldbrass Plantation, a Frank Lloyd Wright house designed in the 1930s.
There have been escapes before, but the monkeys haven’t caused problems, said William McCoy, who owns Lowcountry Horology, a clock and watch repair shop.
“They normally come home because that’s where the food is,” he said.
McCoy has lived in Yemassee for about two years and while he plans to stay away from the monkeys, he has his own light-hearted plan to get them back.
“I’m stocking up bananas, maybe they’ll show up,” McCoy said.
The Alpha Genesis compound is regularly inspected by federal officials.
In 2018, the U.S. Department of Agriculture fined Alpha Genesis $12,600 in part after officials said 26 primates escaped from the Yemassee facility in 2014 and an additional 19 got out in 2016.
The company’s fine was also issued because of individual monkey escapes as well as the killing of one monkey by others when it was placed in the wrong social group, according to a report from the USDA.
The group Stop Animal Exploitation Now sent a letter Thursday to the USDA asking the agency to immediately send an inspector to the Alpha Genesis facility, conduct a thorough investigation and treat them as a repeated violator. The group was involved in the 2018 fine against the company.
“The clear carelessness which allowed these 40 monkeys to escape endangered not only the safety of the animals, but also put the residents of South Carolina at risk,” wrote Michael Budkie, executive director of the group.
The USDA, which has inspected the compound 10 times since 2020, didn’t immediately respond to the letter.
The facility’s most recent federal inspection in May showed there were about 6,700 primates on site and no issues.
In a 2022 review, federal veterinarians reported two animals died when their fingers were trapped in structures and they were exposed to harsh weather. They also found cages weren’t adequately secure. Inspectors said criminal charges, civil penalties or other sanctions could follow if the problems weren’t fixed.
Since then, Alpha Genesis has undergone six inspections with minor problems reported only once.
In January 2023, the USDA said temperatures were out of the 45 to 85 degree Fahrenheit (7.2 to 29.5 degree Celsius) required range at some of the compound’s monkey cages. The inspection found moldy food in one bin, sharp edges on a gate that could cut an animal and sludge, food waste, used medical supplies, mechanical equipment, and general construction debris on the grounds.
Supporters of medical research involving nonhuman primates said they are critical to lifesaving medical advances like creating vaccines against COVID-19 because of their similarities to people. Keeping a domestic supply of the animals is critical to prevent shortages for U.S. researchers.
Humans have been using the rhesus macaque for scientific research since the late 1800s. Scientists believe that rhesus macaques and humans split from a common ancestor about 25 million years ago and share about 93% of the same DNA.
These monkeys have been launched into space on V2 rockets, used for AIDS research, had their genome mapped and made stars of their own reality television show. They were in such high demand in the early 2000s that a shortage led to scientists paying up to $10,000 per animal.
Outside of rats and mice, rhesus macaques are one of the most studied animals on the planet, said Dario Maestripieri, a behavioral scientist at the University of Chicago who wrote the 2007 book “Macachiavellian Intelligence: How Rhesus Macaques and Humans Have Conquered the World.”
The animals are very family oriented, siding with relatives when fights break out. And they’re adept at building political alliances in the face of threats from other monkeys. But they can be painful to watch. Monkeys with lower status in the hierarchy live in a constant state of fear and intimidation, Maestripieri said.
“In some ways, they kind of represent some of the worst aspects of human nature,” Maestripieri said.
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Lovan reported from Louisville, Kentucky, and Finley reported from Norfolk, Virginia.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland speaks with reporters after chairing a special cabinet committee working on Canada’s plan to deal with the incoming Donald Trump administration. Freeland says she’s stood up for Canadian interests in the past and is ready to go another round. (Nov. 8, 2024)
Stewart Turnbull, 56, planned to sell his home in Victoria, B.C., and use the extra money to retire. But with increasing mortgage payments as a result of high interest rates, and little money saved up, he’s unsure of whether selling his home will leave him with enough money to comfortably retire at 65. Turnbull, left, appears in this image with his partner. (HANDOUT / CTVNews.ca)
