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Economy

Alberta election: Albertans head to the polls at critical economic time

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When it comes to economic fortunes, Alberta’s 2023 is a world away from 2019.   When the province elected the United Conservative Party four years ago, Albertans had been battered by a downturn that seemed to never end.

In 2021, it finally did.

The end of COVID-19-related restrictions coupled with the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring.  Instead of posting record deficits, the Alberta government was dealing with billion-dollar surpluses once again.

But business leaders warn the province has come to a critical juncture and decisions made now will directly influence Alberta’s prosperity for decades to come.

“This is a pivotal time for Alberta, there is a lot at stake,” said Deborah Yedlin, Calgary Chamber of Commerce president and CEO.  “We really want to see a government who understands the potential of the province as a whole.”

Yedlin says much of Alberta’s economic future plans were upended last summer with a stroke of a pen.

“The Inflation Reduction Act  (IRA) gets tabled and everyone in town says, ‘Oh boy, what are we going to do?’”  Yedlin said of the multibillion dollar package signed by U.S. President Joe Biden last year.

The Act offers billions of dollars in subsidies to promote the growth of biofuels, hydrogen and carbon capture and storage but only if those industries grow in the United States.

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“It was like somebody came to your dinner table and just flipped it upside down and said, ‘the game has changed’,” said Yedlin.

The president of the Pathways Alliance, an organization representing Canada’s six largest oilsands producers, agrees.

“The IRA raised the bar, right?  And we have to compete with that, it’s just the reality,” said Kendall Dilling, Pathways Alliance president. “In fact as we speak, a lot of Canadian clean tech companies are pivoting to U.S. opportunities because the IRA gives such clear and low risk incentives.”

If Alberta is going to compete with what’s on offer from the United States, Yedlin says the next provincial government will need to work with Ottawa to put forward a package of incentives as well.

“What we need is the province of Alberta to come forward with simple tax credits that can be stackable on top of what the federal government is actually going to be grounding in legislation.”

The NDP platform states that, if elected, it will create the ‘Alberta’s Future Tax Credit’ to “spur investment in cleantech, carbon  materials, critical mineral processing, and advanced manufacturing.”

The United Conservative Party platform states says it will “develop programs similar to the Alberta Petrochemical Incentive Program for more capital-intensive technologies.”

Industries outside energy sector seek support

Industries outside Alberta’s energy sector say they’re looking for the next government to create competitive tax incentives well.

The United Conservative Party government introduced the Alberta Film and Television Tax Credit program in January 2020, eliminating the per-production cap in March 2021. The program has been widely praised as a success, attracting new productions to the province including the first season of the HBO hit series The Last of Us. Both the UCP and NDP have said they will build on that success moving forward.

The UCP is also promising to expand the Agri-Processing Investment tax credit to forestry and other areas and give $100 million to the Alberta Enterprise Corporation to attract more venture capital investment.

Absent from their platform however is any mention of a labour-based tax credit for the province’s video game industry.

“In Alberta, for the interactive digital media sector there are no tax incentives,” said Scott Nye, the chair of Digital Alberta and the Chief Operating Officer for the Edmonton-based Inflexion Games.

The NDP government introduced an incentive program for the industry in 2018.  The Interactive Digital Media Tax Credit covered 25 per cent of staff salaries and bonuses but the program was cancelled by the United Conservative Party government in 2019.

As a result, Nye says his studio plans to grow its business within Alberta were put on pause. The company’s 40 most recent positions were created in Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto.

“Without a competitive tax incentive in Alberta, we’re simply not going to grow here,” explained Nye. “Jobs are already leaving the province as a result.”

The Alberta NDP says, if elected, if will reinstate the Interactive Digital Media Tax Credit.

Differing plans for the future of Alberta corporate and small business tax

The NDP says it will cut Alberta’s small business tax but plans to hike the corporate tax rate from eight to 11 per cent.

United Conservative candidate Brian Jean called the NDP’s proposed moved “an investment killer.”

At 11 per cent, Alberta’s corporate tax rate would still be the lowest in Canada, a half per cent lower than Ontario and Quebec.

In a statement released May 15, the Calgary Chamber of Commerce urged both parties to maintain the corporate tax rate while eliminating the small business tax.

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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