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Alberta election: UCP has slight lead over NDP but leaders in dead heat, Ipsos poll finds

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While some Albertans have already decided who they are supporting in the provincial election, it appears the vote will come down to who can win over more people in Calgary.

A poll for Global News conducted by market research company Ipsos in the past few days shows that overall, the United Conservative Party has a four-point lead over the Alberta NDP among decided and leaning Alberta voters in the lead-up to May 29 election day.

“A slight lead for the UCP at this point, but everything we see makes perfect sense for what you would expect,” said Kyle Braid, senior vice president of public affairs at Ipsos.

“We have an actual competitive election in Alberta.”

Political analyst Jason Ribeiro said a small lead for the UCP does not surprise him, adding Danielle Smith has done a lot of work to make herself more palatable to the voters since becoming leader of the party in October 2022.

“This is very different than those first few weeks where we saw her put her foot in her mouth a number of times, incoherent policies. Now, they’ve been very clearly gearing up for an election,” Ribeiro said.

“It does highlight how close this election is going to be, despite the rhetoric for the last several months about change, about the incompetence of the current government. The NDP still have some work to do,” he said.

While there are multiple parties registered with Elections Alberta, only the United Conservative Party and Alberta NDP realistically have a chance to form the next government.

The UCP is doing best with men, older Albertans and those living outside Calgary and Edmonton, the poll found.

The NDP is doing best with women, younger voters and Edmonton voters.

The two parties share the support of Albertans 35 to 54 years old: 47 per cent for the UCP versus 46 per cent for the NDP.

Ribeiro said he isn’t surprised to find Albertans are at odds.

“We’re a highly divided province at this point. We’re divided around geographical lines, ideological lines.”

Calgary the true Battle of Alberta contender

As has been the case in past elections, the NDP is maintaining support in the province’s capital city while the UCP is doing the same in rural Alberta.

The NDP is up by 11 points in Edmonton (52 per cent NDP vs. 41 per cent UCP), while the UCP dominates with a 27-point lead in the rest of Alberta (59 per cent UCP vs. 32 per cent NDP).

The race is very close in Calgary, with the leading parties in a statistical tie: 47 per cent NDP vs. 45 per cent UCP.

“It’s essentially a dead heat at this point,” Braid said.

“So it looks like a lot of attention is going to be paid to Calgary as we go through the next the next 28 days.”

The battle for seats in Calgary will be competitive, with both parties sharing roughly equal support.

“The only path to victory for the NDP comes through those narrow, narrow, close contests in the city of Calgary. It seems like all the close races that they have to win are in Calgary,” Braid said.

The poll also found when it comes to party loyalty, more voters have made up their minds to support the NDP no matter what, compared to the UCP.

“Sixty-one per cent of New Democrat voters say they’re absolutely certain they’re going to end up voting that way on election day. (It’s) a little less solid for the UCP at this point, with 52 per cent of their voters saying that they’re absolutely certain to support that party,” Braid said.

New election, similar faces: Leader tied for support

There are no new high-profile faces in this election: NDP Leader Rachel Notley has been premier of Alberta before (2015 to 2019) and Danielle Smith unsuccessfully ran for the job as leader of the Wildrose in 2012.

“This is not looking like it’s going to be an election about leadership. They are tied in terms of best premier numbers,” Braid said.

The poll found it’s a dead heat: currently, 35 per cent of Albertans choose Smith and an identical 35 per cent choose Notley.

Barry Morishita, leader of the Alberta Party, is a distant third choice with four per cent and an additional 26 per cent of Albertans are undecided as to which party leader would make the best premier.

“When we look at a range of leadership characteristics, they’re very close to each other on most characteristics,” Braid said of Smith and Notley.

“I think it’s a case where these are not new personalities to Albertans. They know these leaders very well. This is not an election where you’ve got a new leader who can come in and either wow people or turn them off.”

Ribeiro said he is surprised Notley is not doing better than a competitor who has not been given a mandate by Alberta voters before.

“At this point in time, you know, Danielle Smith has done enough potentially to soften some of those rougher edges in the last few weeks in terms of the public presentation she’s putting forward as the current premier and potentially future premier of the province of Alberta,” Ribeiro said.

Time for change?

The poll found Albertans are also open to change.

Half believe it’s time for another political party to take over and run the province. About one-third — 34 per cent — believe the UCP government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while 16 per cent are undecided.

Political analyst Jason Ribeiro said the numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise, with the UCP having undergone a fair bit of change while in power.

“You’ve swapped out a leader and those leaders couldn’t be more contradictory in terms of their views of what the United Conservative Party stands for,” he said when comparing the views of former leader Jason Kenney and current leader Smith.

Ribeiro said it comes down to what kind of change Albertans want, adding each party is going to lean into different rhetoric.

“You have Smith and even frankly, Jason Kenney, still relying on change from the federal government as the main narrative that they use to justify the existence of the UCP and why this party was formed,” he said.

“Whereas Rachel Notley, the NDP, is very traditionally, ‘We need a new government and the government has had their time. We are that change.’”

“What kind of forward progress has the UCP brought? That’s going to be the discussion around kitchen tables for the next 30 days.”

Ipsos said the change numbers are very similar to the start of the 2019 campaign that saw the UCP defeat the incumbent NDP in a landslide, when it was 52 per cent time for change and 31 per cent deserve re-election. Braid said half of voters being open to change is not a particularly high number.

“We’ve seen other provincial elections and federal elections in Canada where that number can be over 60 per cent, but it is enough to shake things up if those who decide it’s the time for change also believe that Rachel Notley and the NDP is the right change to make,” Braid said.

“Sometimes we see in elections the desire for change — but people reject the change that’s on offer.

“That’s what a campaign is about, making it so that the NDP has a chance to make the case for change.”

 

The Global/Ipsos poll was conducted between April 26 and 30. For the survey, a sample of 1,200 Alberta eligible voters was interviewed: 800 online and 400 through a mix of cell and landline phone surveys. Ipsos said the data was weighted by age, gender, region and education to reflect the Alberta population, according to Census figures. The results are accurate to within ±3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. Some questions were based only on the sample of 800 online respondents and are accurate to within ±3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 

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Saskatchewan Party’s Moe pledges change room ban in schools; Beck calls it desperate

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is promising a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected, a move the NDP’s Carla Beck says weaponizes vulnerable kids.

Moe made the pledge Thursday at a campaign stop in Regina. He said it was in response to a complaint that two biological males had changed for gym class with girls at a school in southeast Saskatchewan.

He said the ban would be his first order of business if he’s voted again as premier on Oct. 28.

It was not previously included in his party’s campaign platform document.

“I’ll be very clear, there will be a directive that would come from the minister of education that would say that biological boys will not be in the change room with biological girls,” Moe said.

He added school divisions should already have change room policies, but a provincial directive would ensure all have the rule in place.

Asked about the rights of gender-diverse youth, Moe said other children also have rights.

“What about the rights of all the other girls that are changing in that very change room? They have rights as well,” he said, followed by cheers and claps.

The complaint was made at a school with the Prairie Valley School Division. The division said in a statement it doesn’t comment on specific situations that could jeopardize student privacy and safety.

“We believe all students should have the opportunity to learn and grow in a safe and welcoming learning environment,” it said.

“Our policies and procedures align with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Saskatchewan Human Rights Code.”

Asked about Moe’s proposal, Beck said it would make vulnerable kids more vulnerable.

Moe is desperate to stoke fear and division after having a bad night during Wednesday’s televised leaders’ debate, she said.

“Saskatchewan people, when we’re at our best, are people that come together and deliver results, not divisive, ugly politics like we’ve seen time and again from Scott Moe and the Sask. Party,” Beck said.

“If you see leaders holding so much power choosing to punch down on vulnerable kids, that tells you everything you need to know about them.”

Beck said voters have more pressing education issues on their minds, including the need for smaller classrooms, more teaching staff and increased supports for students.

People also want better health care and to be able to afford gas and groceries, she added.

“We don’t have to agree to understand Saskatchewan people deserve better,” Beck said.

The Saskatchewan Party government passed legislation last year that requires parents consent to children under 16 using different names or pronouns at school.

The law has faced backlash from some LGBTQ+ advocates, who argue it violates Charter rights and could cause teachers to out or misgender children.

Beck has said if elected her party would repeal that legislation.

Heather Kuttai, a former commissioner with the Saskatchewan Human Rights Commission who resigned last year in protest of the law, said Moe is trying to sway right-wing voters.

She said a change room directive would put more pressure on teachers who already don’t have enough educational support.

“It sounds like desperation to me,” she said.

“It sounds like Scott Moe is nervous about the election and is turning to homophobic and transphobic rhetoric to appeal to far-right voters.

“It’s divisive politics, which is a shame.”

She said she worries about the future of gender-affirming care in a province that once led in human rights.

“We’re the kind of people who dig each other out of snowbanks and not spew hatred about each other,” she said. “At least that’s what I want to still believe.”

Also Thursday, two former Saskatchewan Party government members announced they’re endorsing Beck — Mark Docherty, who retired last year and was a Speaker, and Glen Hart, who retired in 2020.

Ian Hanna, a speech writer and senior political adviser to former Saskatchewan Party premier Brad Wall, also endorsed Beck.

Earlier in the campaign, Beck received support from former Speaker Randy Weekes, who quit the Saskatchewan Party earlier this year after accusing caucus members of bullying.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

— With files from Aaron Sousa in Edmonton

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Promise tracker: What the Saskatchewan Party and NDP pledge to do if they win Oct. 28

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REGINA – Saskatchewan‘s provincial election is on Oct. 28. Here’s a look at some of the campaign promises made by the two major parties:

Saskatchewan Party

— Continue withholding federal carbon levy payments to Ottawa on natural gas until the end of 2025.

— Reduce personal income tax rates over four years; a family of four would save $3,400.

— Double the Active Families Benefit to $300 per child per year and the benefit for children with disabilities to $400 a year.

— Direct all school divisions to ban “biological boys” from girls’ change rooms in schools.

— Increase the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit to $15,000 from $10,000.

— Reintroduce the Home Renovation Tax Credit, allowing homeowners to claim up to $4,000 in renovation costs on their income taxes; seniors could claim up to $5,000.

— Extend coverage for insulin pumps and diabetes supplies to seniors and young adults

— Provide a 50 per cent refundable tax credit — up to $10,000 — to help cover the cost of a first fertility treatment.

— Hire 100 new municipal officers and 70 more officers with the Saskatchewan Marshals Service.

— Amend legislation to provide police with more authority to address intoxication, vandalism and disturbances on public property.

— Platform cost of $1.2 billion, with deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in 2027.

NDP

— Pause the 15-cent-a-litre gas tax for six months, saving an average family about $350.

— Remove the provincial sales tax from children’s clothes and ready-to-eat grocery items like rotisserie chickens and granola bars.

— Pass legislation to limit how often and how much landlords can raise rent.

— Repeal the law that requires parental consent when children under 16 want to change their names or pronouns at school.

— Launch a provincewide school nutrition program.

— Build more schools and reduce classroom sizes.

— Hire 800 front-line health-care workers in areas most in need.

— Launch an accountability commission to investigate cost overruns for government projects.

— Scrap the marshals service.

— Hire 100 Mounties and expand detox services.

— Platform cost of $3.5 billion, with small deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in the fourth year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct .17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Bad weather forecast for B.C. election day as record numbers vote in advance polls

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VANCOUVER – More than a million British Columbians have already cast their provincial election ballots, smashing the advance voting record ahead of what weather forecasters say will be a rain-drenched election day in much of B.C., with snow also predicted for the north.

Elections BC said Thursday that 1,001,331 people had cast ballots in six days of advance voting, easily breaking a record set during the pandemic election four years ago.

More than 28 per cent of all registered electors have voted, potentially putting the province on track for a big final turnout on Saturday.

“It reflects what I believe, which is this election is critically important for the future of our province,” New Democrat Leader David Eby said Thursday at a news conference in Vancouver. “I understand why British Columbians are out in numbers. We haven’t seen questions like this on the ballot in a generation.”

He said voters are faced with the choice of supporting his party’s plans to improve affordability, public health care and education, while the B.C. Conservatives, led by John Rustad, are proposing to cut services and are fielding candidates who support conspiracy theories about the COVID-19 pandemic and espouse racist views.

Rustad held no public availabilities on Thursday.

Elections BC said the record advance vote tally includes about 223,000 people who voted on the final day of advance voting Wednesday, the last day of advance polls, shattering the one-day record set on Tuesday by more than 40,000 votes.

The previous record for advance voting in a B.C. election was set in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, when about 670,000 people voted early, representing about 19 per cent of registered voters.

Some ridings have now seen turnout of more than 35 per cent, including in NDP Leader David Eby’s Vancouver-Point Grey riding where 36.5 per cent of all electors have voted.

There has also been big turnout in some Vancouver Island ridings, including Oak Bay-Gordon Head, where 39 per cent of electors have voted, and Victoria-Beacon Hill, where Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau is running, with 37.2 per cent.

Advance voter turnout in Rustad’s riding of Nechako Lakes was 30.5 per cent.

Total turnout in 2020 was 54 per cent, down from about 61 per cent in 2017.

Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia, said many factors are at play in the advance voter turnout.

“If you have an early option, if you have an option where there are fewer crowds, fewer lineups that you have to deal with, then that’s going to be a much more desirable option,” said Prest.

“So, having the possibility of voting across multiple advanced voting days is something that more people are looking to as a way to avoid last-minute lineups or heavy weather.”

Voters along the south coast of British Columbia who have not cast their ballots yet will have to contend with heavy rain and high winds from an incoming atmospheric river weather system on election day.

Environment Canada said the weather system will bring prolonged heavy rain to Metro Vancouver, the Sunshine Coast, Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler and Vancouver Island starting Friday.

Eby said the forecast of an atmospheric weather storm on election day will become a “ballot question” for some voters who are concerned about the approaches the parties have towards addressing climate change.

But he said he is confident people will not let the storm deter them from voting.

“I know British Columbians are tough and they’re not going to let even an atmospheric river stop them from voting,” said Eby.

In northern B.C., heavy snow is in the forecast starting Friday and through to Saturday for areas along the Yukon boundary.

Elections BC said it will focus on ensuring it is prepared for bad weather, said Andrew Watson, senior director of communications.

“We’ve also been working with BC Hydro to make sure that they’re aware of all of our voting place locations so that they can respond quickly if there are any power outages,” he said.

Elections BC also has paper backups for all of its systems in case there is a power outage, forcing them to go through manual procedures, Watson said.

Prest said the dramatic downfall of the Official Opposition BC United Party just before the start of the campaign and voter frustration could also be contributing to the record size of the advance vote.

It’s too early to say if the province is experiencing a “renewed enthusiasm for voting,” he said.

“As a political scientist, I think it would be a good thing to see, but I’m not ready to conclude that’s what we are seeing just yet,” he said, adding, “this is one of the storylines to watch come Saturday.”

Overall turnout in B.C. elections has generally been dwindling compared with the 71.5 per cent turnout for the 1996 vote.

Adam Olsen, Green Party campaign chair, said the advance voting turnout indicates people are much more engaged in the campaign than they were in the weeks leading up to the start of the campaign in September.

“All we know so far is that people are excited to go out and vote early,” he said. “The real question will be does that voter turnout stay up throughout election night?”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. An earlier version said more than 180,000 voters cast their votes on Wednesday.

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