Politics
Alberta’s post-truth election? Why trust may not matter anymore
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Accused by her opponent of breaking the law, Danielle Smith looked squarely into the camera in last week’s provincial leaders’ debate and told Albertans the ethics commissioner’s findings “confirmed that I did not direct or interfere in any COVID related cases.”
Smith’s exchange with NDP Leader Rachel Notley came just hours after a damaging report from Alberta’s ethics watchdog concluded that “Smith contravened [section three] of the Conflicts of Interests Act in her interaction with the minister of justice and attorney general in relation to the criminal charges” faced by Calgary street preacher Artur Pawlowski for urging truckers to continue to block the Canada-U.S. border crossing near Coutts, Alta., in February 2022.
Historically, before the current era of post-shame politics, lawmakers got in trouble for running afoul of the law and ethics rules. Recent public opinion polls, however, suggest Smith appears poised to win next week’s election. Political scandals don’t appear to exact the same political price anymore in our modern, post-truth politics where partisans increasingly overlook their leaders’ once fatal transgressions.
“Partisanship is a hell of a drug,” says Feodor Snagovsky, an assistant professor with the University of Alberta’s political science department who studies identity politics in Canada.
The effect of partisanship is evident in Alberta voters’ evaluations of both Smith and Notley’s trustworthiness, according to 45,616 respondents who participated in CBC News’ Vote Compass from April 30 to May 23.
Notley seen as more trustworthy: Vote Compass
On average, users of CBC News’ online civic engagement tool do not find Smith all that trustworthy.
On a score out of 10, Smith only averaged 2.3 amongst people who responded to CBC News’ online civic engagement application developed by political scientists.
Notley’s 5.4 out of 10 average score for trustworthiness doubles Smith’s rating, in fact.
While NDP supporters, not surprisingly, gave Notley a 7.6 out of 10, UCP supporters surveyed by Vote Compass scored Smith lower — 5.8 out of 10 on average.
Notably, United Conservative Party supporters gave Notley 1.9 out of 10, close to the score Smith received — on average — from all Vote Compass users.
Essentially, UCP supporters told Vote Compass they don’t trust Smith all that much, but they’re still going to vote for her.
Increasingly, party identification — not policy preferences or concerns about trustworthiness — matters more in politics.
It’s become “my party, no matter what” for many partisans.
So, no surprise, the party faithful overlook their leaders’ missteps, including even contravening well-established ethical guidelines that preclude politicians from interfering in the administration of justice.
Longtime conservative voter Don Rausch questions the significance of the “so-called interference” of Smith in Calgary street preacher Artur Pawlowski’s criminal case.
“I think it’s a little overblown,” he told CBC’s West of Centre podcast host Kathleen Petty.
“I think this happens every day. People with influence over all kinds of judges do all kinds of things. This is not an exception,” added Rausch, a retired oil industry executive specializing in international business development and a member of CBC News’ citizens’ panel during this election.
Political interference in the justice system is, in fact, rare. And the ethics commissioner’s conclusion that Smith contravened the Conflicts of Interests Act is unprecedented.
“Political partisans,” said Snagovsky, “see things through the lens of their own partisanship … and seeing things through the prism of your team and the way that your team conditioned you to view things is really powerful.”
And politically, there appears to be a big advantage, especially for politicians on the right, to rip up the old rule book and crash through the usual guardrails that once constrained politics and government.
Many of their supporters like it and reward it.
Group identity, grievance politics and status threat
In her much talked about 2018 book explaining polarization in U.S. politics, political scientist Lilliana Mason illustrates how racial, religious and cultural identities have neatly aligned with political identities.
Partisans not only work hard to dismiss information that doesn’t fit with their preferred party, they also want to see their political team win at all costs. Mason’s book highlights how even moderate partisans feel more compelled to beat their opposing political party in an election than see public policy they actually like become law.
In her 2019 book explaining Donald Trump’s populist politics, noted political philosopher Wendy Brown argues that Trump’s transgressions — sexual abuse, adultery, paying hush money to porn stars, tax avoidance — prompts cheers and chants from his supporters because his abuses of power reclaims the power they lack. Trump, by this logic, is the avatar of their grievances — and voting for him exacts a revenge on a system that betrayed them.
These feelings of partisanship get dialed up when the status of the group gets threatened.
Like a prairie grass fire, a bonfire of resentment and anger burns at the centre of conservative politics in Alberta. Smith often stokes worries about Alberta’s status in Confederation to her own advantage.
The radio host turned politician frequently portrays herself as standing up for Alberta against Alberta’s foes, including the federal government.
Smith has Alberta’s back — and her partisan supporters have hers.
Post-shame politics
Conflicts of interest allegations toppled two premiers — Glen Clark and Bill Vander Zalm — in British Columbia in the 1990s.
But the old rules, whereby shame and disgrace precipitated both of those leaders’ exits from politics, don’t appear to apply any longer. As the former U.S. President Donald Trump proved time and time again, the old political rules don’t apply if you simply ignore them.
Trump showed no shame, even turning old television footage of him bragging about groping women that surfaced weeks before his election win in 2016 to his advantage with claims that the elite media and establishment were determined to destroy him.
“I think [political] leaders since Donald Trump have realized that if they just sort of stay in the game, they’ll be fine, that they can just keep either denying or if they just last long enough, the media will eventually pay attention to something else,” said Snagovsky.
Justin Trudeau, for instance, took responsibility but did not resign in 2019 when the federal ethics commissioner concluded that the prime minister violated the Conflict of Interest Act by trying to influence then-justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould to step in and resolve a corruption and fraud case involving the engineering firm SNC-Lavalin Group.
Trudeau also apologized to voters for violating federal conflict laws with his visit to the Aga Khan’s island in the Bahamas.
The old rules relied a lot on politicians policing themselves, and adhering to norms.
And shame is not legally binding.
Look no further than the U.S. Congressman George Santos, who faces multiple criminal charges and ethics investigations.
The freshman Republican from New York appears deaf to the loud and continuous calls for him to resign.
Post-shame politics corrosive effect
While politicians uncomplicated by feelings of guilt appear able to weather even the nastiest of political storms, the enduring — and worrying — effect comes in the lasting stain it makes on our wider politics and the trustworthiness of all politicians.
Voters, worry some political scientists, come to distrust the entire democratic process, seeing it as rigged.
This, in turn, makes people more open to dirty politics to counter their opponents.
“It definitely creates the impression that my opponents are doing this, so I might as well do it,” said Snagovsky.
But the University of Alberta political scientist stresses the worst thing that we can do is accept this cynical take on politics.
Getting past post-shame politics
Not all UCP supporters have given Smith a pass on her contravention of Alberta’ Conflicts of Interest Act.
Former Calgary city councilor Jeromy Farkas, a conservative stalwart who placed second in Calgary’s mayoral race in 2021, called Smith’s claim that Alberta’s ethics commissioner cleared her of wrongdoing “brazen” on CBC Radio’s Calgary Eyeopener last Friday.
“It really proves why we need to speak out, to hold our own side to account,” said Farkas.
In addition to Farkas, Jim Foster, who served as PC premier Peter Lougheed’s attorney general and later as a Justice of the Court of King’s Bench, endorsed Rachel Notley and the NDP this week, saying he was “deeply concerned” about the ethics commissioner’s findings.
“If you applied the criminal code lens to [Smith’s] actions, it raises the serious prospect the Premier may have broken the law by attempting to pressure the Attorney General over the prosecution of Artur Pawlowski,” Foster said in a statement. “The Attorney General should have resigned after this call with the Premier occurred. An independent investigation to protect our democracy and independent justice system should be considered.”
As well, Doug Griffiths — a longtime Progressive Conservative who served in Premier Ed Stelmach’s government — also is voting NDP in his Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville riding, stressing that the UCP under Smith “are conspiratorial,” “feeding anger,” and “anti-science, anti-truth, anti-fact.”
Snagovsky encourages voters and politicians to call out norm-busting by politicians and to pay special attention to democratic ideals and the rule of law.
“The worst thing that we can do,” he says, “is to not talk about it, the worst thing we could do is just to say, well, that’s just the way politics goes.”
“If you sort of throw your hands up like that, then it becomes really normalized.”
How Vote Compass data is gathered and interpreted
Developed by a team of social and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs, Vote Compass is a civic engagement application offered in Alberta exclusively by CBC Radio-Canada. The findings in this story are based on 45,616 respondents who participated in Vote Compass from April 30 to May 23, 2023.
Unlike online opinion polls, respondents to Vote Compass are not pre-selected. Similar to opinion polls, however, the data is a non-random sample from the population and has been weighted in order to approximate a representative sample.
Vote Compass data has been weighted by gender, age, education, region and partisanship to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Alberta according to census data and other population estimates.
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David Pecker, convivial, accommodating and as bright as a button, sat in the witness stand in a Manhattan courtroom on Tuesday and described how power is used and abused.
“What I would do is publish positive stories about Mr. Trump,” the former tabloid hegemon and fabulist allowed, as if he was sharing some of his favorite dessert recipes. “And I would publish negative stories about his opponents.”
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Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland don’t have a lot in common. But they do share at least one view: that governments could play a bigger role directing pension investments to the benefit of domestic industries and economic priorities.
Canadians, no matter who they vote for, should be worried that these two political heavyweights share any common ground in this regard.
It became clearer in the federal budget last week as Ottawa appointed former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz to lead a working group to explore “how to catalyze greater domestic investment opportunities for Canadian pension funds.” The group will examine how Canadian pension funds can spur innovation and drive economic growth, while still meeting fiduciary and actuarial responsibilities.
This idea has been in discussion since it was highlighted in the fall economic statement. In March, dozens of chief executives signed an open letter urging federal and provincial finance ministers to “amend the rules governing pension funds to encourage them to invest in Canada.”
Rewind to last fall, and it was Alberta’s plans that were dominating controversial pension discussions. As Ms. Smith championed Alberta going it alone, Canadians (including Albertans) were dumbfounded by her government’s claim the province could be entitled to 53 per cent of Canada Pension Plan assets – $334-billion of the plan’s expected $575-billion by 2027. The Premier has made the argument that starting with this nest egg, and with the province’s large working-age population, a separate Alberta plan could provide more in the way of benefits to seniors with lower premiums.
The main point of contention between the Smith government and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals has been what amount Alberta would take, should it exit the Canada Pension Plan. All parties are now waiting on Ottawa’s counter assessment; the Office of the Chief Actuary will provide a calculation sometime this fall.
But lost in this furious debate over that dollar amount is Ms. Smith’s desire to see the province have a say in how the pension contributions of Albertans are invested. The Premier has long expressed frustration that Canadian pension funds were being influenced by fossil-fuel divestment movements, and has suggested a separate Alberta pension plan could be a counterweight to this.
In addition, a key part of the promise for many supporters of the Alberta pension plan idea – including former premier Jason Kenney and pension panel chair Jim Dinning – has been the benefits that would accrue to the province’s financial services sector.
But just as the UCP government might see the potential of using the heft of pension assets to bolster the province’s energy sector, or to spur white-collar jobs in Calgary, the federal Liberals would like see more pension dollars directed toward Canadian AI, digital infrastructure and housing. These are some of the areas Ms. Freeland has directed Mr. Poloz’s working group to focus on.
Some would deem Mr. Freeland’s goals admirable. Tax dollars are already flowing to these sectors. It comes at a time of increasing concern about the housing crunch, Canada’s weak GDP numbers, and the fact that Canada’s economy is being carried along by strong population growth.
But many Canadians are already concerned with government priorities and federal spending. Many more would balk at governments picking winning industries with pension contributions. And governments change. A Conservative government, for instance, might have very different industries in mind for its own pension-fund working group – say, for instance, to make sure Canada doesn’t cede oil market share to Venezuela or the United States.
This pension working group is a convenient sweetener for a business community that has in many ways soured on this Liberal government. It comes at a moment when Ottawa is facing pushback – from technology entrepreneurs to doctors – to its proposed capital-gains tax hike.
It doesn’t appear Ottawa wants to go as far as recreating the CPP in the image of the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, which has a formal mandate that includes contributing to the province’s economic development. And this isn’t to say there’s such a thing as complete neutrality in pension management now. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board makes decisions open to debate and criticism. It should hear what governments and industry have to say, and setting up a couple of regional offices, beyond Toronto, could be helpful.
But if pension plans are formally burdened with policy imperatives from politicians, it could distract from the main goals of reasonable premiums and retirement security for Canadians. It could see the prioritization of being re-elected over returns. The regional and sectoral tug-of-wars over the cash would be never-ending.
There’s good reason to fear what an Alberta government would do should it take control of its citizens’ pension wealth. The same is most definitely true for Ottawa.
Politics
Politics Briefing: Saskatchewan residents to get carbon rebates despite province’s opposition to pricing program
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Hello,
The federal government will continue to deliver the carbon rebate to residents of Saskatchewan despite the province’s move to stop collecting and remitting the levy, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said today.
In January, Saskatchewan’s Crown natural gas and electric utilities removed the federal carbon price from home heating bills, a move that the government says will improve fairness for its residents in relation to the other provinces.
But Trudeau told a news conference in Saskatoon today that payments to residents won’t stop and that the Canada Revenue Agency has ways of ensuring money owed to them is eventually collected. He said he has faith in the “rigorous” quasi-judicial proceedings the agency uses.
In Ottawa, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault accused Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, who is opposed to federal carbon pricing policy, of playing politics with climate change.
“The Prime Minister, and I think cabinet, felt that it wouldn’t be fair for the people of Saskatchewan to pay for the irresponsible attitude of the provincial government,” Guilbeault told a news conference.
The rebate is available to residents of provinces and territories where the federal carbon pricing system applies.
Trudeau was in Saskatoon to announce that the federal government is offering $5-billion in loan guarantees to support Indigenous communities seeking ownership stakes in natural resource and energy projects.
This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.
TODAY’S HEADLINES
Motion to allow keffiyehs in Ontario legislature fails again: A few Ontario government members blocked a move to permit keffiyehs in the legislature, prompting some people watching Question Period from the public galleries to put on the scarves.
B.C. puts social-media harms bill on hold: Premier David Eby issued a joint statement today with representatives from Meta, TikTok, Snap and X to say they have reached an agreement to work to help young people stay safe online through a new BC Online Safety Action Table.
Changes to capital-gains tax may prompt doctors to quit, CMA warns: Kathleen Ross, the president of Canadian Medical Association, said the tax measure “really is one more hit to an already beleaguered and low-morale profession.”
Thunder Bay Indigenous group wants province to dissolve the municipal police force: Grand Chief Alvin Fiddler, from the Nishnawbe Aski Nation, said that after years of turmoil, the Thunder Bay force has not earned the trust of the Indigenous people it serves.
Canada Post refusing to collect banned guns for Ottawa’s buyback program: CBC says the Crown corporation’s position is complicating Ottawa’s plans for a buyback program to remove 144,000 firearms from private hands, federal sources say.
Ottawa police investigating chant on Parliament Hill glorifying Hamas Oct. 7 attack: Police Chief Eric Stubbs acknowledged it can sometimes be difficult to discern what constitutes a hate crime as he confirmed his force is investigating a pro-Palestinian protest over the weekend on Parliament Hill.
TODAY’S POLITICAL QUOTES
“I don’t take any lessons from the Leader of the Opposition when it comes to how marginalized people feel. I’m an Italian Canadian, who, in the 1970s, was spit on.” – Ontario Government House Leader Paul Calandra in the legislature today.
“I’ve spoken with some of my peers from all around the world. All of us would be challenged to find an environment minister somewhere in the world that would tell you: Easy peasy fighting climate change.” – Federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault at a news conference in Ottawa today as international talks in the city proceed to deal with plastics pollution,
THIS AND THAT
Commons, Senate: The House of Commons is on a break until April 29. The Senate sits again April 30.
Deputy Prime Minister’s day: Chrystia Freeland participated in a fireside chat on the budget, then took media questions.
Ministers on the road: With the Commons on a break, ministers continued to fan out across Canada to talk about the budget. Today, the emphasis was largely on the budget and Indigenous reconciliation. Citizens’ Services Minister Terry Beech, with Health Minister Mark Holland, made an Indigenous reconciliation announcement in the B.C. community of Sechelt. Defence Minister Bill Blair is on a three-day visit to the Northwest Territories. Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault is in Edmonton to make an announcement on Indigenous reconciliation. Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne was in the Quebec city of La Tuque. Public Services Minister Jean-Yves Duclos is in Quebec City, focusing on the budget and Indigenous reconciliation. Indigenous Services Minister Patty Hajdu in Vancouver addressing Indigenous reconciliation. Families Minister Jenna Sudds is in Thunder Bay. King’s Privy Council President Harjit Sajjan and Justice Minister Arif Virani touted the budget in an event in Coquitlam, B.C.
Vidal out: Conservative MP Gary Vidal has announced he won’t run in the next election owing to dramatic changes in the Saskatchewan riding he has represented since 2019 that will mean he will no longer be living there. Also, he noted in a posting on social-media platform X that the Conservatives are not allowing an open nomination in the riding he will be living in. “Although this is not the expected outcome I anticipated, circumstances beyond the control of myself and my team have dictated that I move on after the next election,” he wrote.
GG in Saskatchewan: Mary Simon and her partner, Whit Fraser, continued their visit to the province, with stops in Regina that included a stop at the Regina Open Door Society, which provides settlement and integration services to refugees and immigrants. Later, she engaged in a round-table discussion with mental-health specialists on issues affecting Canada’s farming and ranching communities.
New CEO for Pearson Centre for Progressive Policy: George Young is the new chief executive officer of the think tank on progressive issues. The former national director of the federal Liberal party under Jean Chrétien served as a chief of staff to several Chrétien ministers, was a senior adviser to former Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson.
PRIME MINISTER’S DAY
Justin Trudeau was in Saskatoon for a news conference on budget measures.
LEADERS
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is in Ottawa to attend a session of the United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on plastic pollution.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, in Edmonton, went door-knocking in the city with Edmonton Centre candidate Trisha Estabrooks.
No schedules released for Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
THE DECIBEL
On today’s podcast, Nathan VanderKlippe, The Globe’s international correspondent, discussed what has been happening on West Bank farmlands during the Israel-Hamas war. The Decibel is here.
PUBLIC OPINION
Liberals not an option: A third of Canadians surveyed by Ipsos Global Public Affairs say they would never vote Liberal in the next federal election.
No budget lift: Nanos Research says the federal Tories have a 19-point lead over the Liberals despite the release of a budget the government hoped would improve its political fortunes.
CAQ running third: Quebec’s governing Coalition Avenir Québec party has, in a new poll, fallen to third place in public support behind the Parti Québécois and the Liberals, The Gazette in Montreal reports.
OPINION
The Liberals promise billions for clean power. Don’t undermine it with politics
“In the summer of 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden’s ambition to deliver landmark climate legislation looked like it was dead – until the plan experienced a sudden political resurrection on Capitol Hill. The machinations in Washington have reverberated in Ottawa ever since.” – The Globe and Mail Editorial Board
The Liberals’ immigration policies have accomplished the opposite of what was intended
“In its well-meaning effort to encourage the migration of international students to Canada, the Trudeau government is turning swaths of our postsecondary education system into a grift. As a result, broad public support for immigration, the foundation stone of multicultural Canada, is eroding.” – John Ibbitson
Canada’s underwhelming disability benefit is a sign of a government out of ideas
“The Canada Disability Benefit had – and still has – the potential to be a generational game-changer. Done right, it could lift hundreds of thousands of Canadians out of poverty. But what the Liberal government has delivered so far is a colossal betrayal of the promise made to those living with physical, developmental and psychiatric disabilities: a program with a paltry payout and a limited scope, and bogged down in red tape.” – André Picard
Trump poised to clinch US$1.3-billion social media company stock award
SpaceX sends 23 Starlink satellites into low-Earth orbit
Judge Approves $418 Million Settlement That Will Change Real Estate Commissions
Silver investment demand jumped 12% in 2019
12 Bizarre Things People Did Just To Make Social Media Content
Global Media Markets, 2015-2020, 2020-2025F, 2030F – TV and Radio Broadcasting, Film and Music, Information Services, Web Content, Search Portals And Social Media, Print Media, & Cable – GlobeNewswire
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