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Americans say they hate the economy but act like they love it – CNN

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New York (CNN Business)The Biden economy is a walking contradiction.

Consumer sentiment is at a 10-year low, tumbling in November to levels unseen even during the height of Covid-19. A staggering 70% of Americans rate the economy negatively in an ABC News-Washington Post poll.
And yet Americans are shopping up a storm, with retail sales soaring in October at the fastest pace since stimulus checks were sent out in March. Walmart, Target (TGT) and Home Depot are booming.
Hiring is strong (much stronger than the government initially thought). And workers are quitting their jobs at a record pace, in large part because they are very confident they can easily find a better job.
Something doesn’t add up. And that something has a lot to do with the nation’s first inflation scare in decades.
Gas prices are at seven-year highs. Food prices are soaring. New car prices surged in October the most since 1975.
Simply put, the cost of living is going up, and Americans aren’t happy about it. Inflation is overshadowing real bright spots in the US economy.
“The economic news is generally good. But inflation is in your face, every day. Some of the most visible prices are up and that makes it seem like the inflation problem is worse than it is,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC.
The good news is that despite elevated inflation and the supply chain crisis, Americans are still shopping. That’s crucial because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy.
The October retail sales report, which easily beat expectations, signals the US economy is heading into the holiday shopping season with serious momentum — despite the doom-and-gloom signaled by polls.
“People say they are not feeling great about the economy — yet they are spending,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies. “I just don’t fully believe what the confidence reports are telling us.”
Ultimately, if Americans keep spending, then this confidence problem is much more of a political problem for President Joe Biden — as opposed to an economic one.

Show of confidence: Workers are quitting like never before

Of course, it’s important to note that different people are experiencing different things in today’s economy — especially given all the shockwaves set off by Covid. Some parts of the economy hit the hardest by the pandemic, including the travel industry, are still struggling to recover.
And inflation is most painful to low-income families and those living on fixed income. Social Security cost of living adjustments are coming, but not until next year.
Still, there is more evidence that the overall jobs market continues to recover swiftly from Covid. A surge of hiring in October dropped the unemployment rate to 4.6%, down from nearly 15% in April 2020.
Goldman Sachs expects the jobless rate to slip to 3.5% by the end of next year, matching the 50-year low set before the pandemic.
Although there were concerns about a summer slowdown in hiring, revisions show the government dramatically underestimated job growth between June and September.
The Labor Department marked up its original forecast by a total of 626,000 jobs over that span.
At the same time, a record 4.4 million Americans quit their jobs in September, clear evidence of how much leverage workers have in today’s economy.

Biggest price spike since 1990

None of this is to say that inflation isn’t a real challenge. It is.
Consumer prices surged in October by the fastest pace since 1990. Inflation has been stronger and lasted longer than the White House, the Federal Reserve and the smart money on Wall Street anticipated.
The most glaring example is the price at the pump. National gas prices stand at $3.41 a gallon today, up from $2.12 a year ago.
Americans do not like high gas prices, and they have a long history of blaming whoever is in the White House, fair or not.
Big picture, there is a growing realization that inflation will stay elevated for months to come, and some argue prices will go even higher before they come back to earth.
Wages are going up sharply amid a war for talent among companies. Yet wages are often not going up by enough to offset higher consumer prices.

Republicans vs. Democrats

The deeply polarized state of America may be amplifying these inflationary concerns.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index shows wide gaps among partisans during both the Trump and Biden administrations along key issues, including jobs and inflation-adjusted income.
“Partisans aligned with the President’s party have adopted very positive moods, and those in the opposing camp very negative moods,” the University of Michigan report said. “Partisan supporters of one or the other president either mentioned or ignored rising home and stock values, inflation and income growth rates or mentioned or ignored employment or unemployment rates, and so far.”
But politics likely does not tell the whole story here.
Consumer sentiment is down across the board, with Democrats, Republicans and independents all giving the economy poorer marks in the University of Michigan survey today than in the spring of 2021. Sentiment dropped most dramatically among Republicans.
And consider that consumer sentiment among Democrats stands at 87 today. That’s only slightly better than the low-80s readings in early 2017 after former President Donald Trump took office.

‘Big shock to the system’

Another part of the problem is that many Americans have never lived through a period of sticker shock before. Inflation was unusually subdued for the past dozen years, so tame that many economists feared a Japanese-style deflationary spiral that would be hard to get out of.
“Inflation is something that a lot of people have not experienced in their lifetimes. It’s a big shock to the system,” said Markowska, the Jefferies analyst.
For older Americans, all of this inflation talk brings back bad memories of the runaway inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. That’s despite the fact that today’s situation is nowhere near the consumer price spikes back then, which peaked at 14.6% in 1980.
The ironic thing about these inflation fears: A big part of the reason inflation is here today is because demand is booming as the economy recovers from Covid faster than many imagined possible back in March 2020.
Inflation wouldn’t be a problem if the US economy was experiencing something like the painfully slow recovery from the Great Recession.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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