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On July 31, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas and its chief negotiator on war and peace, was assassinated during a visit to Tehran for the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian. Haniyeh’s assassination, widely believed to be orchestrated by Israel, has triggered a wave of anger across Iran and its allies in the Axis of Resistance. The armed wing of Hamas declared that this act would “take the battle to new dimensions and have major repercussions,” while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to avenge Haniyeh’s death and warned Israel of “harsh punishment.”

The assassination reflects the escalating hostilities in the Middle East. Just a day prior, on July 30, an Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut killed Fuad Sukr, a senior Hezbollah commander. This strike was linked to an attack on the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which resulted in the deaths of 12 children or teenagers on July 27. The tension between Israel and Iran’s network of allies is further compounded by a US airstrike on an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq on July 30. The Pentagon justified the strike, claiming it was a preemptive move to thwart planned attacks on US forces stationed in Iraq and Syria.

Ismail Haniyeh was no stranger to danger, having survived an assassination attempt in 2003 and suffering the loss of three of his sons in an Israeli airstrike on Gaza in April 2024. His deputy, Saleh al Arouri, was also killed by Israel in January, and his sister and her family perished in a June airstrike. Haniyeh was a significant figure in Hamas and a key player in negotiations aimed at ending the Gaza war and securing the release of Israeli hostages captured during the Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023.

Haniyeh’s assassination has disrupted ongoing negotiations involving Israel, the United States, Egypt, and Qatar. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani, a central figure in the mediation efforts, criticized Israel’s actions, questioning the feasibility of successful mediation when a key negotiator is assassinated. The negotiations were aimed at finding a resolution to the Gaza conflict and securing the release of hostages, but Haniyeh’s death has cast a shadow over these efforts.

The assassination has elicited strong reactions from various quarters. Iran has accused the United States of sharing responsibility for the killing due to its military support for Israel. However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking from Singapore, denied any foreknowledge or involvement in the attack.

Ismail Haniyeh has been a pivotal figure in Hamas, serving as a prominent aide to Sheikh Yassin, the founder of Hamas. He delivered a eulogy at the funeral of General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ external operations arm, highlighting Soleimani’s contributions to strengthening Palestinian resistance. Haniyeh’s connections with Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Khamenei and Soleimani’s successor Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, underscore his influential role in regional geopolitics.

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh marks a significant escalation in the already volatile Middle East. As both sides brace for potential retaliation and further conflict, the prospects for peace and stability in the region remain uncertain. The international community will be watching closely to see how this latest development influences the broader dynamics of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the ongoing struggle for power and influence in the region.

With President Biden ending his re-election bid, there’s growing chatter that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro could be a potential running mate for Vice President Kamala Harris.

Why it matters: Shapiro, who’s positioned himself as a moderate Democrat, has many advantages for a national ticket, including representing a pivotal swing state that former President Trump’s campaign has indicated will be central to their campaign strategy.

The former state lawmaker and attorney general has decades of political experience, and some swing voters view Shapiro as Democrats’ next rising star.

The big picture: Shapiro is among several Democratic governors getting attention for the VP spot, as well as North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

Some Democratic officials and operatives have even floated Shapiro’s name as a presidential contender should delegates and party members decide Harris isn’t the strongest opponent to take on Trump. As of Sunday, no major Democratic lawmaker had indicated their intention to challenge Harris for the party’s nomination.

Reality check: Democrats are unlikely to leapfrog Harris in favour of another candidate for several reasons — including the millions of dollars held in the Biden-Harris war chest that could easily be given to her, but not to any other potential candidate.

Catch up quick: President Biden announced in a letter posted on his X account Sunday he’s stepping aside as the presumptive Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential contest and endorsing Harris.

Biden, who has been in Rehoboth, Delaware, since last week recovering from COVID-19, faced intense pressure to withdraw from the race following his shaky debate performance on June 27 against Trump. Harris is emerging as the leading contender weeks before the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19, but some advisers worry the VP’s record may not outweigh her years-long battle with public image and low favorability ratings, Axios’ Avery Lotz reports.

What they’re saying: “I will do everything I can to help elect Kamala Harris as the 47th President of the United States,” Shapiro said in a post on X Sunday.

“I’ve known Kamala Harris for nearly two decades — we’ve both been prosecutors, we’ve both stood up for the rule of law, we’ve both fought for the people and delivered results,” Shapiro wrote in a statement. “She has served this country honorably as Vice President and she is ready to be President.” When speculation was swirling before Biden stepped aside, Shapiro said he was committed to staying put as Pennsylvania governor.

His spokesperson Manuel Bonder told Axios earlier this month that any scenario of the governor replacing Biden or becoming Harris’ VP pick was “baseless speculation” and a “distraction” that doesn’t help Democrats “defeat Donald Trump at the ballot box.”

Zoom in: Shapiro, a first-term governor, has navigated the state’s divided government and could appeal to constituents in Philadelphia’s purple suburbs.

Shapiro has been outspoken about the ongoing war in Gaza and was credited for his leadership in getting I-95 reopened in less than two weeks after a deadly collapse.

Between the lines: St. Joseph’s professor emeritus and political commentator Randall Miller tells Axios that Shapiro is better off remaining at the helm in Pennsylvania and positioning himself to run in the next cycle. He could decimate future political prospects by joining a potentially “sinking ship.” “He’s very independent, very shrewd,” Miller said. “He has a controlled, directed ambition. He doesn’t need to do it.”

What’s next: Harris will not automatically pick up Biden’s delegates, meaning her road ahead has to focus on accumulating a majority at the DNC.