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Another Major Bank Turns Bullish On Oil – OilPrice.com

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Another Major Bank Turns Bullish On Oil | OilPrice.com

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

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  • Bank of America has increased its average WTI crude price forecast by $7.70, adding to a trend of increasingly bullish forecasts.
  • The forecast was altered due to stronger-than-expected demand recovery, the OPEC+ pact and curtailments across the industry
  • Downside risks still remain, with high oil prices threatening to bring more supply online and a second-wave of COVID threatening demand.

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Bank of America (BofA) Global Research has revised its average WTI Crude price forecast to US$39.70 a barrel this year, up from a previous projection of US$32 on the back of stronger demand recovery and OPEC+ withholding more supply from the market than initially thought.

BofA forecasts that the U.S. benchmark will average US$47 a barrel in 2021 and US$50 in 2022 in a note carried by Reuters.

Bank of America expects Brent Crude prices to average US$43.70 per barrel this year, up from its previous forecast of US$37 per barrel. Brent Crude is set to average US$50 and US$55 per barrel in 2021 and 2022, respectively, according to the bank.   

The three key reasons for Bank of America’s more optimistic outlook on oil prices are the stronger-than-expected demand recovery, the solid OPEC+ pact, and the curtailments across the industry due to the low oil prices.

“As we head into next year, we believe transportation demand could recover at a faster rate than we initially anticipated,” the bank said.

According to BofA, inventories in most regions are expected to begin drawing down in the second half of this year, and the full Brent futures curve could flip by the end of the year to backwardation – the market situation that typically occurs at times of market deficit. In it, prices for front-month contracts are higher than the ones further out in time. Related: WTI Jumps To $40 On Demand Recovery

According to BofA, the two key downside risks to oil prices will be a resurgence in previously curtailed production because of higher prices and a second wave of coronavirus infections.

Even if there were a second wave, BofA does not see simultaneous lockdowns around the world (as happened in Q2), even if stay-at-home orders in some places are reinstated.

Earlier this month, Barclays lifted its oil price outlook for this year by US$4 a barrel, with Brent Crude expected to average US$41 and WTI Crude US$37 a barrel. The bank, however, warned that price improvements would be slow.

Early on Monday at 8:50 a.m. EDT, Brent Crude was down 0.55 percent at $41.96, and WTI Crude traded down 1.01 percent on the day at $39.35.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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