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As 2023 dawns, Canada’s top soldier confronts a long list of worst-case scenarios

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It might be a stretch to describe Gen. Wayne Eyre as a modern Cassandra.

Still, over the latter half of 2022, Canada’s top military commander delivered — in public and before House of Commons committees — increasingly stark warnings about the future geopolitical landscape, where the war between Russia and Ukraine could go and the intentions of other disruptive international actors, such as China.

Whether he’s been disbelieved or dismissed — like the Trojan priestess of Greek mythology — has depended largely on his audience.

Last October, he told a Commons committee that the West was already “at war with China and Russia” and that the two global powers were out to remake their world in their own political image.

During a separate appearance before a different panel of MPs, he warned that Canada’s hold on its Arctic archipelago is “tenuous” in the face of great power competition.

There’s just not enough Canadian Forces to be able to do everything– Gen. Wayne Eyre

It’s almost unprecedented to hear a Canadian chief of the defence staff speak publicly in such uncompromising terms.

“This has been a year like no other in my career,” Eyre, who has spent 34 years in uniform in deployments all over the world, told CBC News in a year-end interview.

“And I think history will view this year as a turning point in the global order.”

In an interesting departure from his previous remarks, Eyre delivered a decidedly more mainstreet argument for why the skeptical or disinterested should still care about the unraveling of the geopolitical consensus that has held the world together since the end of the Cold War.

“We need to be concerned because our national prosperity is based on the stability in the existing order,” Eyre said. “And if we can’t defer or deter and defend that, or if we can’t work with our friends, partners and allies to create stability in that order, we’re going to suffer.”

The supply chain disruptions and soaring energy and food prices — driven by rampant inflation triggered by the onset of major hostilities between Ukraine and Russia last winter — could be just a taste of what lies ahead, Eyre suggested.

A woman picks up debris inside a building, surrounded by pieces of concrete and a damaged window.
A woman who identified herself as Svetlana removes debris from a ward of a hospital hit by Russian shelling in Donetsk. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)

As Ukraine settles in for a long, brutal winter war, the country’s allies — including Canada — have spent the last few weeks trying to catch their breath and take stock of how the world changed — perhaps irreversibly — in 2022.

In early December, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned during an interview with Norwegian broadcaster NRK that there was a “real possibility” of the war in Ukraine escalating into a full-blown conflict between the western military alliance and Russia.

Canada would be called on to join its allies in such a case.

For years, the Canadian public has been bombarded with conflicting (and occasionally toxic) messages — some of them political — about the state of the military, its equipment and its leadership.

Even members of Parliament seem confused about the roles the Canadian Armed Forces is capable of playing. For proof, look no further than the Commons committee debate last fall about how involved the military should be in domestic emergencies.

Defence Minister Anita Anand, right, walks with Gen. Wayne Eyre, chief of defence staff, as they attend an announcement in Halifax on Friday, Nov.18, 2022. Halifax has been selected to be the host of NATO's North American regional office for defence innovation.
Defence Minister Anita Anand, right, walks with Gen. Wayne Eyre, chief of defence staff, as they attend an announcement in Halifax on Friday, Nov.18, 2022. (Andrew Vaughan/The Canadian Press)

Successive governments have piled more responsibilities on the military, forcing it into unconventional roles — such as backstopping pandemic-ravaged nursing homes in two provinces — at a time when recruitment numbers have been falling like a stone.

The latest item to be added to the military’s to-do list will figure more prominently in the coming year. It’s the Liberal government’s plan to be more involved militarily in the Indo-Pacific region by deploying an additional frigate and undertaking security force training in countries like Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

“I am concerned about our capacity writ large, given the significant number of demands around the world. And there’s just not enough Canadian Forces to be able to do everything,” Eyre said.

Canada has been nominally engaged in the region already, with sail-pasts through the contested Taiwan Strait and missions to enforce sanctions against North Korea.

‘It’s a zero-sum game’

The new government strategy formalizes and increases that involvement — sending a signal to China — at a time when the Canadian military is increasing its commitment to reassurance missions in Eastern Europe meant to keep Russia at bay. At last summer’s NATO leaders summit, Canada agreed to put more resources into the battlegroup it leads in Latvia to make it a brigade-sized force.

Meeting all of those commitments will make the balancing act Eyre and other senior leaders face even more precarious. It will mean, he said, taking great care in deciding which kinds of ships and aircraft to send on missions. For example, he said, frigate deployments could be swapped out for minesweepers in some cases.

Eyre calls it a “targeted” approach. But doesn’t that amount to robbing Peter to pay Paul?

“Well, it’s a zero-sum game, and we have to find a way of paying both Peter and Paul, but perhaps not as much,” he said.

Gen. Wayne Eyre sits down with CBC News for a year-end interview on Dec. 7, 2022.
Gen. Wayne Eyre sits down with CBC News for a year-end interview on Dec. 7, 2022. He said the military’s long list of responsibilities means it must be smart about how it deploys its resources. (CBC News)

Eyre said there’s no silver bullet solution to this dilemma. He noted how in 2022 he ordered all non-essential activity to cease to allow the military to concentrate on its core responsibilities and said that, in certain circumstances, “we’re saying ‘no’ … in terms of taking on new tasks.”

That might be easier said than done, given the global instability Eyre has warned about.

The war in Ukraine has forced the Canadian military to part with some essential equipment, such as ammunition, howitzers and anti-tank weapons. It also put the spotlight on critical deficiencies, such as Canada’s lack of ground-based anti-aircraft systems and weapons to counter drones.

Ukrainian service members fire a shell from a M777 Howitzer in Kharkiv Region, Ukraine on July 21, 2022. (Gleb Garanich/Reuters)

There are urgent procurement efforts underway to replace donated gear and cover those critical gaps, Eyre said.

Those procurements involve acquiring air defences, counter-drone technology, better electronic warfare equipment (jammers) and new anti-tank weapons, such as the U.S.-manufactured Javelins which have proven decisive for Ukrainians on the battlefield.

The word “urgent” is a relative term in defence contracting in Canada. Eyre said the new equipment cannot arrive fast enough.

“I wish we had it yesterday,” he said.

One piece of donated equipment is proving difficult to replace. Earlier this year, Canada gave Ukraine four of its three dozen M-777 towed artillery pieces — weapons the manufacturer no longer makes. British defence contractor BAE Systems said it’s considering whether to restart the production line.

‘What did we do in 1939?’

Eyre said he has challenged planners at the Department of National Defence to think about worst-case scenarios and to draw from the experiences of the past.

“I often challenged the team to look at history. What did we do in 1939?” he said, referring to the beginning of the Second World War.

“We had to grow a Canadian military from several thousand to, I think, at the end of the day, we had six years later 600,000. How did we do that? How were we able to arm them? What risks were involved?”

When asked whether Canada was ready to fight along its allies if the worst happens in 2023, Eyre hedged and qualified his response. It depends, he said, on “who’s your enemy and who are your friends” and what kind of technology is involved.

Some of those worst-case scenarios keep him up at night.

“I have grave concerns, not only about the capabilities we have [but] the ability to sustain them in terms of ammunition, in terms of spare parts and in terms of people,” he said.

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Forecasters issue ‘bomb cyclone’ warning for B.C., with 120 km/h winds predicted

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VANCOUVER – Environment Canada is warning that a “bomb cyclone” is expected to bring powerful winds to most of Vancouver Island and the B.C. coast, with hurricane-force gusts of 120 km/h predicted for some areas this week.

The weather agency has issued more than a dozen warnings for coastal areas, saying the peak wind speeds are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Areas expected to be hit hardest include northern Vancouver Island and the north and central coasts, but gusts of up to 100 km/h are also forecast for heavily populated centres including Victoria and the Sunshine Coast.

The warnings stretch from Prince Rupert in the north to the southern tip of Vancouver Island, while Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are the subject of a special weather statement.

The statement says residents should be prepared for power outages, downed trees and travel delays brought by what it calls a “significant fall storm.”

Environment Canada meteorologist Brian Proctor says a bomb cyclone is caused by a rapid drop in atmospheric pressure at the centre of a storm.

“Typically, with these bomb cyclones, we need a lot of cold air loss in the atmosphere to really eject itself into the low pressure centre, which really helps to deepen them, or helps them to explode,” he said in an interview Monday. “Typically, with this kind of storm, the key phenomena is going to be the wind associated.”

Environment Canada says the storm will develop about 400 kilometres off the coast of Vancouver Island on Tuesday, bringing high winds and heavy rain that afternoon.

Proctor said the storm will likely have the most impact on the west side of Vancouver Island and the central coast.

Matt MacDonald, the lead forecaster for the BC Wildfire Service, says in a social media post that models show B.C. coastal inlets could bring “hurricane force” winds and there may be waves of up to nine metres off Washington and Oregon’s coasts.

Proctor said he wouldn’t be surprised to see those kinds of conditions on B.C.’s coast.

“That would be fairly typical for this kind of track,” he said in an interview.

However, he said that would depend on the track of the low pressure centre and how close to Vancouver Island it comes in before it starts “hooking” northward.

BC Ferries said in a statement Monday that it is “closely monitoring the weather situation” and is in contact with Environment Canada.

While it initially said sailings were expected to proceed as scheduled, a later statement said that it would be providing updates on Tuesday about potential delays or cancellations.

“Our goal is to keep people moving without interruption wherever possible, and to keep our passengers informed as things change,” it said. “In the event of significant disruptions, we will work to reschedule travel or reroute passengers to the next available sailing.”

Electric utility BC Hydro said it has been monitoring the system “very closely” since last week, noting it has a “team of in-house meteorologists that track all weather events” to ensure it has crews and equipment in the right places when storms hit.

“We’re prepared for tomorrow’s storm and are ramping up crews – both BC Hydro crews and contractor crews,” it said in a statement Monday.

A La Nina winter is expected for B.C., and Proctor said the creation of bomb cyclones are amplified under those conditions, when ocean temperatures are cooler than normal.

He said the province should brace for similar storms, though not of the same magnitude.

“We’re really setting up for a fairly typical late fall, if I can put it that way, once we get past this big event of this bomb cyclone,” he said.

The bomb cyclone warnings come after a lightning storm overnight and early Monday covered parts of Metro Vancouver in hail.

B.C. has been hit by a series of powerful fall storms, including an atmospheric river that caused flash flooding in Metro Vancouver in mid-October.

The Insurance Bureau of Canada said in a news release last week that the October storm caused $110 million in insured damage claims, which prompted it to renew calls for the federal government to “fully fund” the National Flood Insurance Program.

It said insured losses related to severe weather in Canada now routinely exceed $3 billion annually and a new record has been set this year, reaching more than $7.7 billion.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 18, 2024.



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Dix out as health minister as Eby introduces a drastically reshaped B.C. NDP cabinet

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VICTORIA – Premier David Eby says “kitchen table” issues in British Columbia will be the focus for his revamped, postelection cabinet that was sworn in on Monday.

Eby’s new cabinet, comprising 23 ministers and four ministers of state, features a mix of new and familiar faces elected in last month’s narrow one-seat New Democrat election win.

“The things that concern your family around the kitchen table are going to be the issues that concern our team around the cabinet table,” he said after the cabinet introduction ceremony at government house.

“Ours will be a government that listens and ours will be a government that delivers,” said Eby, adding “that was the message that people sent us here to do this job in this recent election.”

“That is something every one of these members and everyone who was elected is going to carry with them in the work they do over the next four years,” he said.

He said the priorities for the new cabinet and the NDP government will include good paying jobs, family doctors for everybody, safe communities and affordable homes.

Eby shuffled veteran ministers Adrian Dix and Mike Farnworth and introduced to cabinet several newly elected members of the legislature.

Dix, the longtime health minister who guided the province through the COVID-19 pandemic, was moved to energy and climate solutions, while Josie Osborne, a two-term MLA and a former mayor of Tofino, will take on health.

Eby said Dix was moved to energy and climate solutions because of his track record of success.

“I need someone who can deliver and Adrian is that minister,” Eby said at a news conference. “It’s critically important for our government.”

Dix will be tasked with ensuring B.C. develops its clean energy systems and markets, he said.

Osborne said as a resident and a former mayor of a rural community, she understood the health-care needs of people outside B.C.’s urban areas.

“Everybody deserves access to health care,” said Osborne, acknowledging that many rural B.C. communities have concerns about recurring hospital emergency department closures. “I hear you. I see you.”

Farnworth, B.C.’s veteran solicitor general and public safety minister, was moved out of those portfolios and into transportation and transit, and will also serve as NDP house leader.

Garry Begg, a former RCMP officer, got one of the biggest cheers when he was introduced by Eby as the new solicitor general and public safety minister, elevating him from the backbench to cabinet.

Eby introduced Begg by the nickname “Landslide” in a nod to his wafer-thin 21-vote victory in Surrey that secured the government its one-seat majority.

Brenda Bailey, the former jobs minister and a Vancouver businesswoman, moves into the crucial finance portfolio.

Newly elected MLAs also featured in the cabinet, with former broadcaster Randene Neill becoming minister of land, water and resource management, and Vancouver Police Department veteran Terry Yung named minister of state for community safety.

Among the senior cabinet ministers who kept their jobs were Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon and Attorney General Niki Sharma, whose first duty upon being reappointed was accepting the Great Seal of British Columbia from Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin.

Austin opened Monday’s swearing-in ceremony by paying tribute to former premier John Horgan, who died of thyroid cancer last week.

She called Horgan “a fine man” who loved B.C., and said she would miss his “dad jokes” and “corny” sense of humour.

Eby said after the ceremony that his team would make affordability a priority issue.

“(For) those families hit hard by inflation and rising costs, our focus will be on controlling your costs, supporting you with the cost of everything from housing to car insurance and delivering a middle-income tax cut to support you and your family in these challenging times,” he said.

During the campaign, Eby promised a $1,000 tax cut for the average family, starting next year and benefiting 90 per cent of British Columbians.

Eby faced the challenge of filling the cabinet from a caucus reduced to 47 members in the Oct. 19 election, which gave the NDP the narrowest of majorities in the 93-seat legislature.

Former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister Mike Bernier, who ran unsuccessfully as an Independent last month in his Dawson Creek-area riding, said Eby had to find ways to bring rural representation into the cabinet even though most of his members were from Metro Vancouver or Vancouver Island.

Brittny Anderson, who won in Kootenay-Central, helped fulfil that goal, being appointed minister of state for local government and rural communities.

Energy and mining were carved into two separate portfolios, with Jagrup Brar taking on the latter, now renamed mining and critical minerals.

“We have two separate ministries dedicated to major economic growth sectors for us,” Eby said.

The legislature’s youngest MLA, Ravi Parmar, entered cabinet as forests minister.

B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad said Eby had been invisible when it comes to rural B.C., and he and his 44-member caucus were looking forward to holding the government to account on numerous issues.

Green Leader Sonia Furstenau said in a statement the party was pleased Eby appointed a cabinet with a strong representation of women in leadership roles and a female majority.

“We are particularly pleased to see Niki Sharma appointed as deputy premier and Attorney General, Tamara Davidson as Minister of Environment and Parks, and Bailey as Minister of Finance,” she said. These critical roles will have a significant impact on shaping the future of British Columbia.”

Eby said the NDP government continued to negotiate will the Greens about how the party’s two elected members could work with the government.

“I hope British Columbians see in this cabinet an experienced team that’s going to be focused on the priorities they sent us to Victoria to address,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 18, 2024.



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Prince Harry in Vancouver as Invictus Games school program launches online

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VANCOUVER – Prince Harry is in Vancouver for the launch of a campaign to raise awareness of the Invictus Games among children and youth, one day after surprising Canadian football fans by appearing at the Grey Cup in the city.

The prince visited Vancouver-area elementary and high school students at Seaforth Armoury.

The visit comes as the Invictus Games launches a lessons program for students from kindergarten to Grade 12, making educational resources on the event’s history and purpose available online.

Prince Harry founded the Invictus Games for wounded, injured and sick veterans and other service personnel about a decade ago, and the games will next be held in Vancouver and Whistler in February.

After meeting the students and engaging in a short game of sitting volleyball on the floor of the armoury, Prince Harry told the crowd the school program could help the Invictus Games “go even wider” and “into schools in Canada and hopefully around the world.”

The prince made a surprise appearance at the Grey Cup game at BC Place Stadium on Sunday, waving to the crowd and giving an interview before joining B.C. Lions owner Amar Doman on the field.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 18, 2024.

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