If there is anything we’ve learned over the past year it’s that central banks are pretty bad at predicting inflation. Which may be a reason for hope.
When Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers warned on Wednesday — the same day Statistics Canada inflation data shocked nearly everyone with a jump to levels not seen since 1983 — that there is worse inflation ahead, she may or may not be right. After failing to foresee the current spurt of inflation, the bank’s record speaks for itself.
“We know inflation is keeping Canadians up at night. It’s keeping us up at night, and we will not rest easy until we get it back down to target,” said Rogers as part of a fireside chat organized by the Globe and Mail on one of the hottest days of the year so far.
That is why, she said, the Bank of Canada is raising rates “quite aggressively.”
WATCH | Businesses, consumers struggle to cope with inflation:
Consumers, businesses on edge as inflation hits 40-year high
12 hours ago
Duration 6:25
With inflation reaching a high not seen since 1983, Canadians are looking for ways to earn more and spend less, while businesses are trying to manage rising costs.
The end of inflation?
Rogers and the Bank of Canada are by no means alone in seeing a gloomy future where prices keep rising (“team transitory has disbanded,” quipped Rogers). But there are other voices, and it might just be time to look for signs of a bit of optimism, if just on the principle that it is always darkest before the dawn.
Because unless you are convinced that inflation is permanently out of control and the price of everything will keep rising forever, inflation must be ultimately transitory at some point. The question is: when is that point?
People shop in a Walmart Supercentre in Toronto on March 13, 2020. Canadian price increases hit highs not seen in four decades, but as central banks pour on rate hikes and begin to slow the economy, there are some signs inflation is losing its heat. (Carlos Osorio/Reuters)
A British rail strike and new data showing Canadians really are increasingly expecting inflation to persistare worrying indicators of what the future may hold.But just this week there have been counter-signals that some of the main drivers of inflation — food, oil and supply-chain disruptions — may be starting to heal themselves.
Meanwhile, though retail sales have not yet seen a strong impact from the rising cost of borrowing imposed by central bank rate hikes, Canadian real estate has — something Rogers observed from the heat of her imaginary fireside.
To look at the gloomy perspective first, the strike that shut down transport across Britain is a potential warning of the kinds of forces that could push wages, and therefore prices, higher.
Fighting for lost spending power
“Our campaign will run for as long as it needs to run,” Mick Lynch, secretary general of Britain’s Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers, said this week. With a management wage offer of three per cent amidst inflation above nine per cent, there are fears the transport strike could begin a new “summer of discontent,” as public sector unions, including the health sector, battle to regain lost spending power.
So far there are few signs of that kind of disruptive labour action in Canada, and governments may decide to try to placate workers before it gets that far. Federally regulated dairy farmers, for example, have been granted a mid-year price increase.
As Rogers reiterated on Wednesday, inflationary expectations, the conviction by workers and businesses that prices will keep going up, are one of the things central banks fear the most.
A recent report from the Conference Board of Canada offers some good news and bad news on that front. Fresh June data shows Canadian expectations for one year ahead “popped upward,” but three-year expectations declined, showing that many Canadians may still be on team transitory.
While core inflation rose again in the latest Statistics Canada data, there remain a few key products whose rising prices are benchmarks for our inflationary fears.
Prices at the pumps hit new highs when last month’s data was being collected, but gas-buyers know this month, prices, while still unpleasantly high, have dropped significantly so far, meaning other things being equal the inflation number could be lower next month.
An adjustment to the statistical agency’s basket of goods to include new and used vehicle prices while upping the weighting of housing was expected to result in a one-time increase that could fade away in future monthly data.
WATCH | Where is inflation hitting the hardest?:
Inflation rate now at 7.7% — its highest since 1983
23 hours ago
Duration 5:37
Canada’s inflation rate rose at its fastest pace in almost 40 years in the year up to May, says Statistics Canada, as the price of just about everything continues to go up fast.
Slowing not cheering
Some of the most encouraging data on prices came this week from food commodity analysts at Agritel, who showed the global price of grains and oil seeds have begun to fall, although one reason for the decline, fear of a recession, is not entirely cheering. It does show fast-paced rate hikes are having an impact.
Similarly, even as U.S. President Joe Biden promises to cut gas taxes, the price of oil has begun to slide. Despite a reluctance by consumers to drive less in the U.S. and in Canada, business users continue to look for efficiencies as rising interest rates and a declining economy threaten — even as oil producers look for new sources.
WATCH | Biden plans to freeze gas taxes to lower prices at the pump:
Biden announces plan to freeze gas taxes
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Duration 11:50
U.S. President Joe Biden unveils a plan to lower gas prices.
Clarence Woudsma, author of Freight, land and local economic development and an associate professor at the University of Waterloo, notes that while fuel use by shippers rises faster than GDP when growth is picking up, the reverse can apply when the economy declines.
“Sometimes trucking statistics are referred to as a sort of a canary in the coal mine,” said Woudsma. “If we’re going into recession, businesses stop placing orders or they adjust their inventory because they see what’s coming in the next quarter.”
That may be even more true in the wake of the recent supply chain difficulties faced by North American businesses. Shortages encouraged companies to fill up their warehouses when they could. They must now try to unwind those excess inventories, inadvertently helping to unclog transportation capacity needed by other inputs still in short supply.
EDMONTON – Jake Allen made 31 saves for his second shutout of the season and 26th of his career as the New Jersey Devils closed out their Western Canadian road trip with a 3-0 victory over the Edmonton Oilers on Monday.
Jesper Bratt had a goal and an assist and Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier also scored for the Devils (8-5-2) who have won three of their last four on the heels on a four-game losing skid.
The Oilers (6-6-1) had their modest two-game winning streak snapped.
Calvin Pickard made 13 stops between the pipes for Edmonton.
TAKEAWAYS
Devils: In addition to his goal, Bratt picked up his 12th assist of the young season to give him nine points in his last eight games and now 15 points overall. Nico Hischier remains in the team lead, picking up an assist of his own to give him 16 points for the campaign. He has a point in all but four games this season.
Oilers: Forward Leon Draisaitl was held pointless after recording six points in his previous two games and nine points in his previous four. Draisaitl usually has strong showings against the Devils, coming into the contest with an eight-game point streak against New Jersey and 11 goals in 17 games.
KEY MOMENT
New Jersey took a 2-0 lead on the power play with 3:26 remaining in the second period as Hischier made a nice feed into the slot to Bratt, who wired his third of the season past Pickard.
KEY RETURN?
Oilers star forward and captain Connor McDavid took part in the optional morning skate for the Oilers, leading to hopes that he may be back sooner rather than later. McDavid has been expected to be out for two to three weeks with an ankle injury suffered during the first shift of last Monday’s loss in Columbus.
OILERS DEAL FOR D-MAN
The Oilers have acquired defenceman Ronnie Attard from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for defenceman Ben Gleason.
The 6-foot-3 Attard has spent the past three season in the Flyers organization seeing action in 29 career games. The 25-year-old right-shot defender and Western Michigan University grad was originally selected by Philadelphia in the third round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Attard will report to the Oilers’ AHL affiliate in Bakersfield.
UP NEXT
Devils: Host the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday.
Oilers: Host the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2024.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — Patrick Mahomes threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns, and Kareem Hunt pounded into the end zone from two yards out in overtime to give the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs a 30-24 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.
DeAndre Hopkins had two touchdown receptions for the Chiefs (8-0), who drove through the rain for two fourth-quarter scores to take a 24-17 lead with 4:17 left. But then Kansas City watched as Baker Mayfield led the Bucs the other way in the final minute, hitting Ryan Miller in the end zone with 27 seconds to go in regulation time.
Tampa Bay (4-5) elected to kick the extra point and force overtime, rather than go for a two-point conversion and the win. And it cost the Buccaneers when Mayfield called tails and the coin flip was heads. Mahomes and the Chiefs took the ball, he was 5-for-5 passing on their drive in overtime, and Hunt finished his 106-yard rushing day with the deciding TD plunge.
Travis Kelce had 14 catches for 100 yards with girlfriend Taylor Swift watching from a suite, and Hopkins finished with eight catches for 86 yards as the Chiefs ran their winning streak to 14 dating to last season. They became the sixth Super Bowl champion to start 8-0 the following season.
Mayfield finished with 200 yards and two TDs passing for the Bucs, who have lost four of their last five.
It was a memorable first half for two players who had been waiting to play in Arrowhead Stadium.
The Bucs’ Rachaad White grew up about 10 minutes away in a tough part of Kansas City, but his family could never afford a ticket for him to see a game. He wound up on a circuitous path through Division II Nebraska-Kearney and a California junior college to Arizona State, where he eventually became of a third-round pick of Tampa Bay in the 2022 draft.
Two year later, White finally got into Arrowhead — and the end zone. He punctuated his seven-yard scoring run in the second quarter, which gave the Bucs a 7-3 lead, by nearly tossing the football into the second deck.
Then it was Hopkins’ turn in his first home game since arriving in Kansas City from a trade with the Titans.
The three-time All-Pro, who already had caught four passes, reeled in a third-down heave from Mahomes amid triple coverage for a 35-yard gain inside the Tampa Bay five-yard line. Three plays later, Mahomes found him in the back of the end zone, and Hopkins celebrated his first TD with the Chiefs with a dance from “Remember the Titans.”
Tampa Bay tried to seize control with consecutive scoring drives to start the second half. The first ended with a TD pass to Cade Otton, the latest tight end to shred the Chiefs, and Chase McLaughlin’s 47-yard field goal gave the Bucs a 17-10 lead.
The Chiefs answered in the fourth quarter. Mahomes marched them through the rain 70 yards for a tying touchdown pass, which he delivered to Samaje Perine while landing awkwardly and tweaking his left ankle, and then threw a laser to Hopkins on third-and-goal from the Buccaneers’ five-yard line to give Kansas City the lead.
Tampa Bay promptly went three-and-out, but its defence got the ball right back, and this time Mayfield calmly led his team down field. His capped the drive with a touchdown throw to Miller — his first career TD catch — with 27 seconds to go, and Tampa Bay elected to play for overtime.
UP NEXT
Buccaneers: Host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Darcy Kuemper made 16 saves for his first shutout of the season and 32nd overall, helping the Los Angeles Kings beat the Nashville Predators 3-0 on Monday night.
Adrian Kempe had a goal and an assist and Anze Kopitar and Kevin Fiala also scored. The Kings have won two of their last three.
Juuse Saros made 24 saves for the Predators. They are 1-2-1 in their last four.
Kopitar opened the scoring with 6:36 remaining in the opening period. Saros denied the Kings captain’s first shot, but Kopitar collected the rebound below the goal line and banked it off the netminder’s skate.
Fiala, a former Predator, made it 2-0 35 seconds into the third.
The Kings held Nashville to just three third-period shots on goal, the first coming with 3:55 remaining and Saros pulled for an extra attacker.
Elsewhere in the NHL on Monday:
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DEVILS 3 OILERS 0
EDMONTON, Alta. (AP) — Jake Allen made 31 saves for his second shutout of the season and 26th of his NHL career, helping the New Jersey Devils close their western Canadian road trip with a 3-0 victory over the Edmonton Oilers.
Jesper Bratt had a goal and an assist and Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier also scored. The Devils improved to 8-5-2. They have won three of their last four after a four-game skid.
Calvin Pickard made 13 saves for Edmonton. The Oilers had won two straight.
