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As coronavirus fears grow, private equity eyes distressed investments – The Globe and Mail

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Industry officials debated when a global recession might kick in and whether the coronavirus would be the trigger.

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Major private equity firms, which have built up big distressed debt funds in recent years, are ready to snap up assets on the cheap if the coronavirus outbreak causes deeper market disruptions, executives told an industry meeting this week.

Distressed asset investment took centre stage at the SuperReturn conference in Berlin as financial markets reeled from investor panic over the coronavirus outbreak which has so far wiped $5 trillion off equities.

Industry officials debated when a global recession might kick in and whether the coronavirus would be the trigger.

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Billionaire private-equity chief Leon Black said his firm, Apollo Global Management, which built its reputation on investments made in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, was ready to deploy funds in the event of a global recession.

“A downturn would not be a bad thing for Apollo,” he said during a panel discussion.

Apollo, which manages over $300 billion in assets, invested almost $50-billion in four months around the time of the 2008 financial crisis, and was prepared for a similar splurge should there be another downturn, he said.

“At this point in the cycle, you do have to keep an eye out for potential disruptions and we may already be seeing some of that coming to pass,” said Jason Thomas, global head of research at The Carlyle Group, a $225-billion private equity fund.

Funds could invest in company credit, loans in particular, which tend to decline proportionally to equity in a downturn even though it’s more senior in the capital structure, he said.

The more the senior the debt the higher the priority for repayment in the event of a bankruptcy.

“Credit becomes relatively undervalued, creating a buying opportunity irrespective of your views on the broader economy,” Carlyle’s Thomas said.

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KEEPING POWDER DRY

Many private equity firms have been building up distressed debt funds for several years, keeping a chunk of them on hold for a downturn. Such “dry powder” among distressed debt funds hit a record $77 billion globally in 2019, according to data from Preqin.

Some distressed debt specialists told Reuters in January that 2020 could be their year, with default rates tipped to rise and an expected increase in the number of companies that will struggle to service their debt.

The difficulty for these funds is predicting the end of what has been a long economic growth cycle. Many have been focusing on challenged sectors such as automobiles and energy instead of looking for a particular flashpoint in the economy.

“The automotive sector is facing a massive cyclical issue even before taking into account the coronavirus,” said Chris Boehringer, co-head of distressed debt for Europe at Oaktree Capital, a fund with $122-billion of assets under management.

“It is a sector that is used to 20-25 per cent of growth but was actually down 20 per cent last year. That, along with energy, are two sectors where we see a lot of dislocations potentially coming up and opportunities for us.”

One private equity executive at the conference, who is focused on distressed assets, told Reuters: “I signed up and expected to have meeting requests from six or seven others with a similar profile – instead, I had more than 50.”

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“Everyone here is trying to figure out when the cycle ends, if this time is different. Maybe coronavirus is the first trigger.”

Opinion was divided on whether coronavirus could prompt a downturn, with some saying the effect it has on supply chains could intensify an economic slowdown.

“Coronavirus could throw things off kilter a little but in terms of affecting certain industries we don’t know yet just how much. The best thing we can do right now is be prepared,” said Apollo’s Black.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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